Related papers: Multi-Armed Sequential Hypothesis Testing by Betti…
In this paper, we address the problem of testing exchangeability of a sequence of random variables, $X_1, X_2,\cdots$. This problem has been studied under the recently popular framework of testing by betting. But the mapping of testing…
We focus on the problem of best-arm identification in a stochastic multi-arm bandit with temporally decreasing variances for the arms' rewards. We model arm rewards as Gaussian random variables with fixed means and variances that decrease…
Many real-world functions are defined over both categorical and category-specific continuous variables and thus cannot be optimized by traditional Bayesian optimization (BO) methods. To optimize such functions, we propose a new method that…
We propose confidence sequences -- sequences of confidence intervals which are valid uniformly over time -- for quantiles of any distribution over a complete, fully-ordered set, based on a stream of i.i.d. observations. We give methods both…
Motivated by the task of hyperparameter optimization, we introduce the non-stochastic best-arm identification problem. Within the multi-armed bandit literature, the cumulative regret objective enjoys algorithms and analyses for both the…
For the stochastic multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem from a constrained model that generalizes the classical one, we show that an asymptotic optimality is achievable by a simple strategy extended from the $\epsilon_t$-greedy strategy. We…
Multi-armed bandits (MAB) model sequential decision making problems, in which a learner sequentially chooses arms with unknown reward distributions in order to maximize its cumulative reward. Most of the prior work on MAB assumes that the…
We study a Bayesian binary sequential hypothesis testing problem with multiple large language models (LLMs). Each LLM $j$ has per-query cost $c_j>0$, random waiting time with mean $\mu_j>0$ and sub-Gaussian tails, and \emph{asymmetric}…
When testing a statistical hypothesis, is it legitimate to deliberate on the basis of initial data about whether and how to collect further data? Game-theoretic probability's fundamental principle for testing by betting says yes, provided…
The best arm identification problem requires identifying the best alternative (i.e., arm) in active experimentation using the smallest number of experiments (i.e., arm pulls), which is crucial for cost-efficient and timely decision-making…
The challenge of identifying the best feasible arm within a fixed budget has attracted considerable interest in recent years. However, a notable gap remains in the literature: the exact exponential rate at which the error probability…
We introduce a new non-zero-sum game of optimal stopping with asymmetric exercise opportunities. Given a stochastic process modelling the value of an asset, one player observes and can act on the process continuously, while the other player…
Best arm identification (BAI) aims to identify the highest-performance arm among a set of $K$ arms by collecting stochastic samples from each arm. In real-world problems, the best arm needs to satisfy additional feasibility constraints.…
We study the fixed-budget best-arm identification (BAI) problem in non-stationary linear bandits. Concretely, given a fixed time budget $T\in \mathbb{N}$, finite arm set $\mathcal{X} \subset \mathbb{R}^d$, and a potentially adversarial…
This paper proposes a class of origin-smooth approximators of indicators underlying the sum-of-negative-part statistic for testing multiple inequalities. The need for simulation or bootstrap to obtain test critical values is thereby…
In this paper, we propose a general method for testing composite hypotheses. Our idea is to use confidence limits to define stopping and decision rules. The requirements of operating characteristic function can be satisfied by adjusting the…
We consider the combinatorial bandits problem with semi-bandit feedback under finite sampling budget constraints, in which the learner can carry out its action only for a limited number of times specified by an overall budget. The action is…
In order to test if a treatment is perceptibly different from a placebo in a randomized experiment with covariates, classical nonparametric tests based on ranks of observations/residuals have been employed (eg: by Rosenbaum), with…
We consider the Max $K$-Armed Bandit problem, where a learning agent is faced with several sources (arms) of items (rewards), and interested in finding the best item overall. At each time step the agent chooses an arm, and obtains a random…
Global hypothesis tests are a useful tool in the context of, e.g, clinical trials, genetic studies or meta analyses, when researchers are not interested in testing individual hypotheses, but in testing whether none of the hypotheses is…