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Accurately quantifying uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) is crucial for their reliable deployment, especially in high-stakes applications. Current state-of-the-art methods for measuring semantic uncertainty in LLMs rely on strict…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-31 Yashvir S. Grewal , Edwin V. Bonilla , Thang D. Bui

Deep learning is gaining increasing popularity for spatiotemporal forecasting. However, prior works have mostly focused on point estimates without quantifying the uncertainty of the predictions. In high stakes domains, being able to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-06-15 Dongxia Wu , Liyao Gao , Xinyue Xiong , Matteo Chinazzi , Alessandro Vespignani , Yi-An Ma , Rose Yu

Consistency regularization-based methods are prevalent in semi-supervised learning (SSL) algorithms due to their exceptional performance. However, they mainly depend on domain-specific data augmentations, which are not usable in domains…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-29 Matin Moezzi

Sound Source Localization (SSL) involves estimating the Direction of Arrival (DOA) of sound sources. Since the DOA estimation output space is continuous, regression might be more suitable for DOA, offering higher precision. However, in…

Audio and Speech Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-01-30 Linfeng Feng , Xiao-Lei Zhang , Xuelong Li

We analyze an ensemble-based approach for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in atomistic neural networks. This method generates an epistemic uncertainty signal without requiring changes to the underlying multi-headed regression neural network…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2025-11-21 Idan Fonea , Amir Peles , Sivan Niv , Goren Gordon , Amir Natan

Adapting pre-trained deep learning models to new and unknown environments remains a major challenge in underwater acoustic localization. We show that although the performance of pre-trained models suffers from mismatch between the training…

Sound · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Dariush Kari , Hari Vishnu , Andrew C. Singer

Trustworthy deployment of ML models requires a proper measure of uncertainty, especially in safety-critical applications. We focus on uncertainty quantification (UQ) for classification problems via two avenues -- prediction sets using…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-08 Aleksandr Podkopaev , Aaditya Ramdas

Uncertainty quantification is essential for scientific analysis, as it allows for the evaluation and interpretation of variability and reliability in complex systems and datasets. In their original form, multivariate statistical regression…

The rise of large language models (LLMs) and their tight integration into our daily life make it essential to dedicate efforts towards their trustworthiness. Uncertainty quantification for LLMs can establish more human trust into their…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-06 Daniel Yang , Yao-Hung Hubert Tsai , Makoto Yamada

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in natural language generation (NLG) tasks remains an open challenge, exacerbated by the closed-source nature of the latest large language models (LLMs). This study investigates applying conformal prediction…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-11-19 Zhiyuan Wang , Jinhao Duan , Lu Cheng , Yue Zhang , Qingni Wang , Xiaoshuang Shi , Kaidi Xu , Hengtao Shen , Xiaofeng Zhu

Singing voice synthesis (SVS) has seen remarkable advancements in recent years. However, compared to speech and general audio data, publicly available singing datasets remain limited. In practice, this data scarcity often leads to…

Sound · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Yiwen Zhao , Jiatong Shi , Yuxun Tang , William Chen , Shinji Watanabe

Existing fraud detection methods predominantly rely on transcribed text, suffering from ASR errors and missing crucial acoustic cues like vocal tone and environmental context. This limits their effectiveness against complex deceptive…

In principle, deep learning models trained on medical time-series, including wearable photoplethysmography (PPG) sensor data, can provide a means to continuously monitor physiological parameters outside of clinical settings. However, there…

Uncertainty quantification has been a core of the statistical machine learning, but its computational bottleneck has been a serious challenge for both Bayesians and frequentists. We propose a model-based framework in quantifying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-04 Minsuk Shin , Young Lee , Jun S. Liu

We propose a rigorous framework for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in which the UQ objectives and the assumptions/information set are brought to the forefront. This framework, which we call \emph{Optimal Uncertainty Quantification} (OUQ),…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-05-20 Houman Owhadi , Clint Scovel , Timothy John Sullivan , Mike McKerns , Michael Ortiz

The ability to replicate predictions by machine learning (ML) or artificial intelligence (AI) models and results in scientific workflows that incorporate such ML/AI predictions is driven by numerous factors. An uncertainty-aware metric that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-28 Line Pouchard , Kristofer G. Reyes , Francis J. Alexander , Byung-Jun Yoon

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is crucial in machine learning, yet most (axiomatic) studies of uncertainty measures focus on classification, leaving a gap in regression settings with limited formal justification and evaluations. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-19 Christopher Bülte , Yusuf Sale , Timo Löhr , Paul Hofman , Gitta Kutyniok , Eyke Hüllermeier

Designing a speech quality assessment (SQA) system for estimating mean-opinion-score (MOS) of multi-rate speech with varying sampling frequency (16-48 kHz) is a challenging task. The challenge arises due to the limited availability of a…

Audio and Speech Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-02-17 Fengyuan Cao , Xinyu Liang , Fredrik Cumlin , Victor Ungureanu , Chandan K. A. Reddy , Christian Schuldt , Saikat Chatterjee

Development of an accurate, flexible, and numerically efficient uncertainty quantification (UQ) method is one of fundamental challenges in machine learning. Previously, a UQ method called DISCO Nets has been proposed (Bouchacourt et al.,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-06 Takuya Kanazawa , Chetan Gupta

Conformal prediction (CP), a distribution-free uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework, reliably provides valid predictive inference for black-box models. CP constructs prediction sets that contain the true output with a specified…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-12 Xiaofan Zhou , Baiting Chen , Yu Gui , Lu Cheng
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