Related papers: Improving RCT-Based CATE Estimation Under Covariat…
Estimation of the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is often carried out in 2 steps, wherein the first step, the treatment and outcome are modeled, and in the second step the predictions are inserted into the ATE estimator. In the first steps,…
Reinforcement Learning from Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has emerged as the standard paradigm for improving reasoning capability of large language models, while Multi-Token Prediction (MTP) has been a widely adopted module in pretraining.…
Methods that infer causal dependence from observational data are central to many areas of science, including medicine, economics, and the social sciences. A variety of theoretical properties of these methods have been proven, but empirical…
Causal estimands can vary significantly depending on the relationship between outcomes in treatment and control groups, potentially leading to wide partial identification (PI) intervals that impede decision making. Incorporating covariates…
Prior work has shown that combining bootstrap imputation with tree-based machine learning variable selection methods can provide good performances achievable on fully observed data when covariate and outcome data are missing at random…
Estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) from observational data is relevant in many fields such as personalized medicine. However, in practice, the treatment assignment is usually confounded by unobserved variables and thus…
We propose a prognostic stratum matching framework that addresses the deficiencies of Randomized trial data subgroup analysis and transforms ObservAtional Data to be used as if they were randomized, thus paving the road for precision…
Decision-making across various fields, such as medicine, heavily relies on conditional average treatment effects (CATEs). Practitioners commonly make decisions by checking whether the estimated CATE is positive, even though the…
Recently, many causal estimators for Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) and instrumental variable (IV) problems have been published and open sourced, allowing to estimate granular impact of both randomized treatments (such as A/B…
In causal matching designs, some control subjects are often left unmatched, and some covariates are often left unmodeled. This article introduces "rebar," a method using high-dimensional modeling to incorporate these commonly discarded data…
Randomized experiments can provide unbiased estimates of sample average treatment effects. However, estimates of population treatment effects can be biased when the experimental sample and the target population differ. In this case, the…
Randomized Controlled Trials (RCT)s are relied upon to assess new treatments, but suffer from limited power to guide personalized treatment decisions. On the other hand, observational (i.e., non-experimental) studies have large and diverse…
Plausible identification of conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) may rely on controlling for a large number of variables to account for confounding factors. In these high-dimensional settings, estimation of the CATE requires…
Non-adherence to assigned treatment is common in randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Recently, there has been an increased interest in estimating causal effects of treatment received, for example the so-called local average treatment…
We consider the problem of estimating the effects of a binary treatment on a continuous outcome of interest from observational data in the absence of confounding by unmeasured factors. We provide a new estimator of the population average…
Given the prevalence of missing data in modern statistical research, a broad range of methods is available for any given imputation task. How does one choose the `best' imputation method in a given application? The standard approach is to…
Flexible estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects lies at the heart of many statistical challenges, such as personalized medicine and optimal resource allocation. In this paper, we develop a general class of two-step algorithms for…
Randomized experiments are the gold standard for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE). While covariate adjustment can reduce the asymptotic variances of the unbiased Horvitz-Thompson estimators for the ATE, it suffers from…
Randomization tests and flexible treatment-effect models offer complementary strengths for analyzing data from randomized panel experiments: the former provide valid inference under the known assignment mechanism, while the latter can…
We introduce Observation-aware Conformal Uncertainty Local-Calibration (OCULAR), a conformal prediction-based algorithm that uses perception information to provide uncertainty quantification guarantees for unseen test-time environments.…