Related papers: Transition path theory insights into hurricane rap…
Tropical cyclones can be of varied intensity and cause a huge loss of lives and property if the intensity is high enough. Therefore, the prediction of the intensity of tropical cyclones advance in time is of utmost importance. We propose a…
Accurate cyclone forecasting is essential for minimizing loss of life, infrastructure damage, and economic disruption. Traditional numerical weather prediction models, though effective, are computationally intensive and prone to error due…
In thermal convection for very large Rayleigh numbers ($Ra$), the thermal and viscous boundary layers (BL) undergo a transition from a classical state to an ultimate state. In the former state, the BL thicknesses follow a laminar-like…
Precipitation from tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause disasters such as flooding, mudslides, and landslides. Predicting such precipitation in advance is crucial, giving people time to prepare and defend against these precipitation-induced…
Tropical cyclone and sea surface temperature data have been used in several studies to forecast the total number of hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin. Sea surface temperature (SST) and latent heat flux (LHF) are correlated with tropical…
We derive an analytical expression for the transition path time (TPT) distribution for a one-dimensional particle crossing a parabolic barrier. The solution is expressed in terms of the eigenfunctions and eigenvalues of the associated…
Under action of free-stream turbulence (FST), elongated streamwise streaky structures are generated inside the boundary layer, and their amplitude and wavelength are crucial for the transition onset. While turbulence intensity is strongly…
Atlantic Canada faces significant hurricane threats from damaging winds and coastal flooding that are projected to intensify under climate change. This study adopts a two-stage framework. First, the evolution of wind and coastal-flood…
Bayesian hierarchical models are proposed for modeling tropical cyclone characteristics and their damage potential in the Atlantic basin. We model the joint probability distribution of tropical cyclone characteristics and their damage…
Cloud radiative feedback impacts early tropical cyclone (TC) intensification, but limitations in existing diagnostic frameworks make them unsuitable for studying asymmetric or transient radiative heating. We propose a linear Variational…
Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasting is crucial for early disaster warning and emergency decision-making. Numerous researchers have explored deep-learning methods to address computational and post-processing issues in operational…
Given two distinct subsets $A,B$ in the state space of some dynamical system, Transition Path Theory (TPT) was successfully used to describe the statistical behavior of transitions from $A$ to $B$ in the ergodic limit of the stationary…
Fast and accurate prediction of hurricane evolution from genesis onwards is needed to reduce loss of life and enhance community resilience. In this work, a novel model development methodology for predicting storm trajectory is proposed…
We develop a unified view of topological phase transitions (TPTs) in solids by revising the classical band theory with the inclusion of topology. Re-evaluating the band evolution from an "atomic crystal" [a normal insulator (NI)] to a solid…
Boundary layer processes drive the air-sea exchange of momentum, heat, and moisture that powers and shapes hurricanes. The height of the boundary layer is a critical parameter in engineering and meteorological models of hurricane wind…
Predicting typhoon intensity accurately across space and time is crucial for issuing timely disaster warnings and facilitating emergency response. This has vast potential for minimizing life losses and property damages as well as reducing…
Tropical cyclones are one of the most powerful and destructive natural phenomena on earth. Tropical storms and heavy rains can cause floods, which lead to human lives and economic loss. Devastating winds accompanying cyclones heavily affect…
This paper presents numerical solutions and idealized analytical solutions of axisymmetric, $f$-plane models of the tropical cyclone boundary layer. In the numerical model, the boundary layer radial and tangential flow is forced by a…
Hurricane Leslie (2018) was a non-tropical system that lasted for a long time undergoing several transitions between tropical and extratropical states. Its trajectory was highly uncertain and difficult to predict. Here the extratropical…
Tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting is crucial for disaster preparedness and mitigation. While recent deep learning approaches have shown promise, existing methods often treat TC evolution as a series of independent frame-to-frame…