Related papers: Transition path theory insights into hurricane rap…
The rising number of extreme climate events in the past decades has motivated the need for a thorough consideration of tropical cyclone genesis and intensity, given the sea-surface temperature (SST). In this paper, we present an analysis of…
Transition Path Theory (TPT) provides a rigorous statistical characterization of the ensemble of trajectories connecting directly, i.e., without detours, two disconnected (sets of) states in a Markov chain, a stochastic process that…
Direct computer simulation of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) in weather models is limited by computational expense. Intense TCs are rare and have small-scale structures, making it difficult to produce large ensembles of storms at high…
Traditional methods for enhancing tropical cyclone (TC) intensity from climate model outputs or projections have primarily relied on either dynamical or statistical downscaling. With recent advances in deep learning (DL) techniques, a…
This study examines Hurricane Lidia rapid intensification (RI) in the understudied northeastern Pacific, focusing on its interaction with an upper-level trough. Using IFS-ECMWF ensemble forecasts and ERA5 reanalysis, we analyze the…
A presumed impact of global climate change is the increase in frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. Due to the possible destruction that occurs when tropical cyclones make landfall, understanding their formation should be of mass…
In this series of papers, an analytical theory for the early stage (tropical storm stage) of hurricane development is proposed. In Part I, a linear theory and a nonlinear theory have been formulated. It was found in Part I that the linear…
Tropical cyclones are among the most consequential weather hazards, yet estimates of their risk are limited by the relatively short historical record. To extend these records, researchers often generate large ensembles of synthetic storms…
Many chemical reactions can be formulated in terms of particle diffusion in a complex energy landscape. Transition path theory (TPT) is a theoretical framework for describing the direct (reaction) pathways from reactant to product states…
Improving statistical forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is limited by complex nonlinear interactions and difficulty in identifying relevant predictors. Conventional methods prioritize correlation or fit, often overlooking…
Bayesian statistical models were developed for the number of tropical cyclones and the rate at which these cyclones became hurricanes in the North Atlantic, North and South Indian, and East and West Pacific Oceans. We find that there is…
By analyzing a time-homogeneous Markov chain constructed using trajectories of undrogued drifting buoys from the NOAA's Global Drifter Program, we find that probability density can distribute in a manner that resembles very closely the…
Hurricanes are cyclones circulating about a defined center whose closed wind speeds exceed 75 mph originating over tropical and subtropical waters. At landfall, hurricanes can result in severe disasters. The accuracy of predicting their…
Tipping points (TP) in climate sub-systems are usually thought to occur at a well-defined, critical forcing parameter threshold, via destabilization of the system state by a single, dominant positive feedback. However, coupling to other…
A set of analytical and computational tools based on transition path theory (TPT) is proposed to analyze flows in complex networks. Specifically, TPT is used to study the statistical properties of the reactive trajectories by which…
Atmospheric regime transitions are highly impactful as drivers of extreme weather events, but pose two formidable modeling challenges: predicting the next event (weather forecasting), and characterizing the statistics of events of a given…
The tropical cyclone formation process is one of the most complex natural phenomena which is governed by various atmospheric, oceanographic, and geographic factors that varies with time and space. Despite several years of research,…
Accurate prediction of tropical cyclones remains a major challenge for both numerical weather prediction and emerging artificial intelligence weather prediction systems. While recent global AI models have demonstrated strong skill in…
Turbulent water motions are important for the exchange of momentum, heat, nutrients, and suspended matter including sediments in the deep-sea that is generally stably stratified in density. To maintain ocean-density stratification, an…
Tropical cyclones (TCs) pose severe threats to life, infrastructure, and economies in tropical and subtropical regions, underscoring the critical need for accurate and timely forecasts of both track and intensity. Recent advances in…