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Sequential latent-variable models with subject-specific random effects provide a flexible framework for modeling temporally structured data with both local latent dynamics and stable between-subject heterogeneity. In such models,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-28 Xingche Guo

This paper proposes Incremental Seeded Expectation Maximization, an algorithm that improves upon the traditional Expectation Maximization computational flow for clusterwise or finite mixture linear regression tasks. The proposed method…

Computation · Statistics 2025-07-08 Ye Chow Kuang , Melanie Ooi

When random effects are correlated with sample design variables, the usual approach of employing individual survey weights (constructed to be inversely proportional to the unit survey inclusion probabilities) to form a pseudo-likelihood no…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-26 Terrance D. Savitsky , Matthew R. Williams

Mixtures of linear mixed models (MLMMs) are useful for clustering grouped data and can be estimated by likelihood maximization through the EM algorithm. The conventional approach to determining a suitable number of components is to compare…

Applications · Statistics 2014-05-26 Siew Li Tan , David J. Nott

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have created new opportunities to enhance performance on complex reasoning tasks by leveraging test-time computation. However, existing scaling methods have key limitations: parallel…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-12-04 Jiefeng Chen , Jie Ren , Xinyun Chen , Chengrun Yang , Ruoxi Sun , Jinsung Yoon , Sercan Ö Arık

The motivation of this work is to improve the performance of standard stacking approaches or ensembles, which are composed of simple, heterogeneous base models, through the integration of the generation and selection stages for regression…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-03-31 Roberto Aldave , Jean-Pierre Dussault

Restricted maximum likelihood (REML) estimation is a widely accepted and frequently used method for fitting linear mixed models, with its principal advantage being that it produces less biased estimates of the variance components. However,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-15 Luca Maestrini , Francis K. C. Hui , Alan H. Welsh

Accurately selecting and estimating smooth functional effects in additive models with potentially many functions is a challenging task. We introduce a novel Demmler-Reinsch basis expansion to model the functional effects that allows us to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-02 Paul Bach , Nadja Klein

Linear mixed models are widely used for clustered data, but their reliance on parametric forms limits flexibility in complex and high-dimensional settings. In contrast, gradient boosting methods achieve high predictive accuracy through…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-04 Mitchell L. Prevett , Francis K. C. Hui , Zhi Yang Tho , A. H. Welsh , Anton H. Westveld

This paper introduces a sequential multiple importance sampling (SeMIS) algorithm for high-dimensional Bayesian inference. The method estimates Bayesian evidence using all generated samples from each proposal distribution while obtaining…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-08 Li Binbin , He Xiao , Liao Zihan

Accurate forecasts of macroeconomic and financial data, such as GDP, CPI, unemployment rates, and stock indices, are crucial for the success of countries, businesses, and investors, resulting in a constant demand for reliable forecasting…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-27 Tomasz M. Łapiński , Krzysztof Ziółkowski

In this paper we have considered the problem of estimating the population mean in systematic sampling using information on an auxiliary variable in presence of non response. Some modified ratio, product and difference type estimators in…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-03-06 Hemant K. Verma , R. D. Singh , Rajesh Singh

Reinforcement learning methods trained on few environments rarely learn policies that generalize to unseen environments. To improve generalization, we incorporate the inherent sequential structure in reinforcement learning into the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-19 Rishabh Agarwal , Marlos C. Machado , Pablo Samuel Castro , Marc G. Bellemare

To avoid specification of the error distribution in a regression model, we propose a general nonparametric scale mixture model for the error distribution. For fitting such mixtures, the predictive recursion method is a simple and…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-09-03 Ryan Martin , Zhen Han

In this article, we propose two classes of semiparametric mixture regression models with single-index for model based clustering. Unlike many semiparametric/nonparametric mixture regression models that can only be applied to low dimensional…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-15 Sijia Xiang , Weixin Yao

One of the possible objectives when designing experiments is to build or formulate a model for predicting future observations. When the primary objective is prediction, some typical approaches in the planning phase are to use…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-04 Trent Lemkus , Philip Ramsey , Christopher Gotwalt , Maria Weese

Mixed-effect models are flexible tools for researchers in a myriad of fields, but that flexibility comes at the cost of complexity and if users are not careful in how their model is specified, they could be making faulty inferences from…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-28 Keith R. Lohse , Allan J. Kozlowski , Michael J. Strube

Ensembles of generative large language models (LLMs) are a promising way to compensate for individual model limitations, integrating the strengths of different LLMs. Existing LLM ensemble methods, however, face limitations such as…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-09 Bo Lv , Nayu Liu , Chen Tang , Xin Liu , Yue Yu , Ping Luo

Random-effects models are central to meta-analysis, yet the between-study variance is often underestimated when the number of studies is small. In such settings, confidence intervals become unduly narrow and fail to attain the nominal…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-18 Keisuke Hanada , Tomoyuki Sugimoto

Gradient boosting from the field of statistical learning is widely known as a powerful framework for estimation and selection of predictor effects in various regression models by adapting concepts from classification theory. Current…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-03 Colin Griesbach , Benjamin Säfken , Elisabeth Waldmann