Related papers: Besag-Clifford e-values for unnormalized testing
Sine-skewed circular distributions are identifiable and have easily-computable trigonometric moments and a simple random number generation algorithm, whereas they are known to have relatively low levels of asymmetry. This study proposes a…
We consider the problem of closeness testing for two discrete distributions in the practically relevant setting of \emph{unequal} sized samples drawn from each of them. Specifically, given a target error parameter $\varepsilon > 0$, $m_1$…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a powerful methodology for the approximation of posterior distributions. However, the iterative nature of MCMC does not naturally facilitate its use with modern highly parallel computation on HPC and cloud…
We introduce Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms based on numerical approximations of piecewise-deterministic Markov processes obtained with the framework of splitting schemes. We present unadjusted as well as adjusted algorithms,…
In the context of inferring a Bayesian network structure (directed acyclic graph, DAG for short), we devise a non-reversible continuous time Markov chain, the ``Causal Zig-Zag sampler'', that targets a probability distribution over classes…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a powerful tool for sampling from complex probability distributions. Despite its versatility, MCMC often suffers from strong autocorrelation and the negative sign problem, leading to slowing down the…
A large number of statistical models are "doubly-intractable": the likelihood normalising term, which is a function of the model parameters, is intractable, as well as the marginal likelihood (model evidence). This means that standard…
In recent work, robust mixture modelling approaches using skewed distributions have been explored to accommodate asymmetric data. We introduce parsimony by developing skew-t and skew-normal analogues of the popular GPCM family that employ…
The pseudo-marginal algorithm is a popular variant of the Metropolis--Hastings scheme which allows us to sample asymptotically from a target probability density $\pi$, when we are only able to estimate an unnormalized version of $\pi$…
This work introduces a family of univariate constrained mixtures of generalized normal distributions (CMGND) where the location, scale, and shape parameters can be constrained to be equal across any subset of mixture components. An…
Bayesian inference for doubly-intractable pairwise exponential graphical models typically involves variations of the exchange algorithm or approximate Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers. However, existing methods for both classes of…
Analysis of algorithms on time-varying networks (often called evolving graphs) is a modern challenge in theoretical computer science. The edge-Markovian is a relatively simple and comprehensive model of evolving graphs: every pair of…
Inferring parameter distributions of complex industrial systems from noisy time series data requires methods to deal with the uncertainty of the underlying data and the used simulation model. Bayesian inference is well suited for these…
In this paper we present an extension of population-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to the trans-dimensional case. One of the main challenges in MCMC-based inference is that of simulating from high and trans-dimensional target…
The complexity underlying real-world systems implies that standard statistical hypothesis testing methods may not be adequate for these peculiar applications. Specifically, we show that the likelihood-ratio test's null-distribution needs to…
A learned generative model often produces biased statistics relative to the underlying data distribution. A standard technique to correct this bias is importance sampling, where samples from the model are weighted by the likelihood ratio…
In performing a Bayesian analysis, two difficult problems often emerge. First, in estimating the parameters of some model for the data, the resulting posterior distribution may be multi-modal or exhibit pronounced (curving) degeneracies.…
The rejection threshold used for e-values and e-processes is by default set to $1/\alpha$ for a guaranteed type-I error control at $\alpha$, based on Markov's and Ville's inequalities. This threshold can be wasteful in practical…
$P$-values that are derived from continuously distributed test statistics are typically uniformly distributed on $(0,1)$ under least favorable parameter configurations (LFCs) in the null hypothesis. Conservativeness of a $p$-value $P$…
We investigate the issue of parameter estimation with nonuniform negative sampling for imbalanced data. We first prove that, with imbalanced data, the available information about unknown parameters is only tied to the relatively small…