Related papers: Tipping resonance in a chaotically forced ice age …
There is evidence that ice age cycles are paced by astronomical forcing, suggesting some kind of synchronisation phenomenon. Here, we identify the type of such synchronisation and explore systematically its uniqueness and robustness using a…
We study rate-induced phase-tipping (RP-tipping) between two stable limit cycles of a birhythmic oscillator. We say that such an oscillator RP-tips when a time variation of an input parameter preserves the bistability of the limit cycles…
Tipping in multistable systems occurs usually by varying the input slightly, resulting in the output switching to an often unsatisfactory state. This phenomenon is manifested in thermoacoustic systems. This thermoacoustic instability may…
In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, the extreme weather events triggering the variability in Arctic ice cover has drawn increasing attention. A non-Gaussian $\alpha$-stable L\'evy process is thought to be an appropriate…
Stochastic resonance is a well established phenomenon, which proves relevant for a wide range of applications, of broad trans-disciplinary breath. Consider a one dimensional bistable stochastic system, characterized by a deterministic…
It is often known, from modelling studies, that a certain mode of climate tipping (of the oceanic thermohaline circulation, for example) is governed by an underlying fold bifurcation. For such a case we present a scheme of analysis that…
In an ecosystem, environmental changes as a result of natural and human processes can cause some key parameters of the system to change with time. Depending on how fast such a parameter changes, a tipping point can occur. Existing works on…
We consider a periodically-forced 1-D Langevin equation that possesses two stable periodic solutions in the absence of noise. We ask the question: is there a most likely noise-induced transition path between these periodic solutions that…
Motivated by a stochastic differential equation describing the dynamics of interfaces, we study the bifurcation behavior of a more general class of such equations. These equations are characterized by a 2-dimensional phase space (describing…
Critical transitions describe sudden changes in the state of an ecosystem. In classical bifurcation theory, such transitions occur when the value of a parameter exceeds a threshold (``bifurcation") value. More recently, critical transitions…
We propose a mechanism which produces periodic variations of the degree of predictability in dynamical systems. It is shown that even in the absence of noise when the control parameter changes periodically in time, below and above the…
We propose an approximation for the probability of tipping when the speed of parameter change and additive white noise interact to cause tipping. Our approximation is valid for small to moderate drift speeds and helps to estimate the…
A variation in the environment of a system, such as the temperature, the concentration of a chemical solution or the appearance of a magnetic field, may lead to a drift in one of the parameters. If the parameter crosses a bifurcation point,…
We discuss tipping phenomena (critical transitions) in nonautonomous systems using an example of a bistable ecosystem model with environmental changes represented by time-varying parameters [Scheffer et al., Ecosystems, 11 (2008), pp.…
We investigate the effects of a time-correlated noise on an extended chaotic system. The chosen model is the Lorenz'96, a kind of "toy" model used for climate studies. Through the analysis of the system's time evolution and its time and…
Noise usually has an unwelcome influence on system performance. For instance, noise inevitably affects the low-frequency mechanical freedom in optomechanical experiments. However, we investigate here the beneficial effects of thermal noise…
We develop a definition of rate-induced tipping (R-tipping) in discrete-time dynamical systems (maps) and prove results giving conditions under which R-tipping will or will not happen. Specifically, we study (possibly non-invertible) maps…
Turbulent reacting flows confined to ducts are plagued by thermoacoustic instability, a state in which a positive feedback between flow, flame and acoustic perturbations leads to the emergence of catastrophically high-amplitude oscillatory…
A chaotic system under periodic forcing can develop a periodically visited strange attractor. We discuss simple models in which the phenomenon, quite easy to see in numerical simulations, can be completely studied analytically.
We discuss the nonlinear phenomena of irreversible tipping for non-autonomous systems where time-varying inputs correspond to a smooth "parameter shift" from one asymptotic value to another. We express tipping in terms of pullback…