Related papers: GARCH-FIS: A Hybrid Forecasting Model with Dynamic…
Classification models play a central role in data-driven decision-making applications such as medical diagnosis, recommendation systems, and risk assessment. Traditional performance metrics, such as accuracy and AUC, focus on overall error…
The discrete-time multifactor Vasi\v{c}ek model is a tractable Gaussian spot rate model. Typically, two- or three-factor versions allow one to capture the dependence structure between yields with different times to maturity in an…
This paper presents a method for forecasting limit order book durations using a self-exciting flexible residual point process. High-frequency events in modern exchanges exhibit heavy-tailed interarrival times, posing a significant challenge…
Interval type-II Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) assumes a crucial role in determining the coefficients of the PID controller, thereby augmenting the controller's flexibility. Controlling chaotic systems presents inherent challenges and…
Volatility asymmetry is a hot topic in high-frequency financial market. In this paper, we propose a new econometric model, which could describe volatility asymmetry based on high-frequency historical data and low-frequency historical data.…
Optimization-based state estimation is useful for nonlinear or constrained dynamic systems for which few general methods with established properties are available. The two fundamental forms are moving horizon estimation (MHE) which uses the…
Volatility clustering is a crucial property that has a substantial impact on stock market patterns. Nonetheless, developing robust models for accurately predicting future stock price volatility is a difficult research topic. For predicting…
Probabilistic Virtual Fixtures (VFs) enable the adaptive selection of the most suitable haptic feedback for each phase of a task, based on learned or perceived uncertainty. While keeping the human in the loop remains essential, for…
The discrete-time GARCH methodology which has had such a profound influence on the modelling of heteroscedasticity in time series is intuitively well motivated in capturing many `stylized facts' concerning financial series, and is now…
A spin model is used for simulations of financial markets. To determine return volatility in the spin financial market we use the GARCH model often used for volatility estimation in empirical finance. We apply the Bayesian inference…
This paper presents a novel neuro-fuzzy model, termed fuzzy recurrent stochastic configuration networks (F-RSCNs), for industrial data analytics. Unlike the original recurrent stochastic configuration network (RSCN), the proposed F-RSCN is…
The Gaussian graphical model (GGM) incorporates an undirected graph to represent the conditional dependence between variables, with the precision matrix encoding partial correlation between pair of variables given the others. To achieve…
This paper proposes an innovative threshold measurement equation to be employed in a Realized-GARCH framework. The proposed framework incorporates a nonlinear threshold regression specification to consider the leverage effect and model the…
Self-adaptive software (SAS) is capable of adjusting its behavior in response to meaningful changes in the operational context and itself. Due to the inherent volatility of the open and changeable environment in which SAS is embedded, the…
Fuzzy relational identification builds a relational model describing systems behaviour by a nonlinear mapping between its variables. In this paper, we propose a new fuzzy relational algorithm based on simplified max-min relational equation.…
Low-frequency historical data, high-frequency historical data and option data are three major sources, which can be used to forecast the underlying security's volatility. In this paper, we propose two econometric models, which integrate…
Recommender Systems (RS) pervade many aspects of our everyday digital life. Proposed to work at scale, state-of-the-art RS allow the modeling of thousands of interactions and facilitate highly individualized recommendations. Conceptually,…
The fundamental theorem behind financial markets is that stock prices are intrinsically complex and stochastic. One of the complexities is the volatility associated with stock prices. Volatility is a tendency for prices to change…
Appropriate risk management is crucial to ensure the competitiveness of financial institutions and the stability of the economy. One widely used financial risk measure is Value-at-Risk (VaR). VaR estimates based on linear and parametric…
Stock price forecasting is an important issue for investors since extreme accuracy in forecasting can bring about high profits. Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) and Longest Common/Repeated Sub-sequence (LCS/LRS) are two important issues for…