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Mixture model-based frameworks are very popular for statistical inference in clustering. While convenient for producing probabilistic estimates of cluster assignments and uncertainty, they are prone to misspecification, which can lead to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-15 Yu Zheng , Leo L. Duan , Arkaprava Roy

Network data are increasingly collected along with other variables of interest. Our motivation is drawn from neurophysiology studies measuring brain connectivity networks for a sample of individuals along with their membership to a low or…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-11 Daniele Durante , David B. Dunson

We present a continuation method that entails generating a sequence of transition probability density functions from the prior to the posterior in the context of Bayesian inference for parameter estimation problems. The characterization of…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-27 Ben Mansour Dia

Changepoints are abrupt variations in the generative parameters of a data sequence. Online detection of changepoints is useful in modelling and prediction of time series in application areas such as finance, biometrics, and robotics. While…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2007-10-22 Ryan Prescott Adams , David J. C. MacKay

Sequential design is a highly active field of research in active learning which provides a general framework for designing computer experiments with limited computational budgets. It aims to create efficient surrogate models to replace…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-03 Paul Lartaud , Philippe Humbert , Josselin Garnier

Loss-based clustering methods, such as k-means and its variants, are standard tools for finding groups in data. However, the lack of quantification of uncertainty in the estimated clusters is a disadvantage. Model-based clustering based on…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-11 Tommaso Rigon , Amy H. Herring , David B. Dunson

We propose Bayesian Univariate-Guided Sparse Regression (BUGS), a novel global-local shrinkage framework that incorporates marginal association information directly into the prior through a continuous modulation of shrinkage. Unlike…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-27 Priyam Das

Bayesian deep learning (BDL) is a promising approach to achieve well-calibrated predictions on distribution-shifted data. Nevertheless, there exists no large-scale survey that evaluates recent SOTA methods on diverse, realistic, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-26 Florian Seligmann , Philipp Becker , Michael Volpp , Gerhard Neumann

Learning a Bayesian network (BN) from data can be useful for decision-making or discovering causal relationships. However, traditional methods often fail in modern applications, which exhibit a larger number of observed variables than data…

Computation · Statistics 2018-06-26 Raj Agrawal , Tamara Broderick , Caroline Uhler

Bayesian network structure learning is often performed in a Bayesian setting, by evaluating candidate structures using their posterior probabilities for a given data set. Score-based algorithms then use those posterior probabilities as an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-03-14 Marco Scutari

The discovery of Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) is an essential task for applied science and engineering. However, data-driven discovery of PDEs is generally challenging, primarily stemming from the sensitivity of the discovered…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-27 Aoxue Chen , Yifan Du , Liyao Mars Gao , Guang Lin

Community detection seeks to recover mesoscopic structure from network data that may be binary, count-valued, signed, directed, weighted, or multilayer. The stochastic block model (SBM) explains such structure by positing a latent partition…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-07 Marios Papamichalis , Regina Ruane

We consider the analysis of sets of categorical sequences consisting of piecewise homogeneous Markov segments. The sequences are assumed to be governed by a common underlying process with segments occurring in the same order for each…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-04-08 Petter Arnesen , Tracy Holsclaw , Padhraic Smyth

Bayesian experimental design (BED) for complex physical systems is often limited by the nested inference required to estimate the expected information gain (EIG) or its gradients. Each outer sample induces a different posterior, creating a…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Huchen Yang , Xinghao Dong , Jinlong Wu

Software is highly contextual. While there are cross-cutting `global' lessons, individual software projects exhibit many `local' properties. This data heterogeneity makes drawing local conclusions from global data dangerous. A key research…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2018-04-10 Neil A. Ernst

Clustering is widely studied in statistics and machine learning, with applications in a variety of fields. As opposed to classical algorithms which return a single clustering solution, Bayesian nonparametric models provide a posterior over…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-11 Sara Wade , Zoubin Ghahramani

Prediction is a central task of statistics and machine learning, yet many inferential settings provide only partial information, typically in the form of moment constraints or estimating equations. We develop a finite, fully Bayesian…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-20 Nicholas G. Polson , Daniel Zantedeschi

We address the new problem of estimating a piece-wise constant signal with the purpose of detecting its change points and the levels of clusters. Our approach is to model it as a nonparametric penalized least square model selection on a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-12-04 Othmane Mazhar , Cristian R. Rojas , Carlo Fischione , Mohammad R. Hesamzadeh

Standard Bayesian inference can build models that combine information from various sources, but this inference may not be reliable if components of a model are misspecified. Cut inference, as a particular type of modularized Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-18 Yang Liu , Robert J. B. Goudie

Stochastic variational Bayes algorithms have become very popular in the machine learning literature, particularly in the context of nonparametric Bayesian inference. These algorithms replace the true but intractable posterior distribution…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-04 Pedro Regueiro , Abel Rodríguez , Juan Sosa