Related papers: Mixed difference integer-valued GARCH model for $ …
This study addresses the computational challenges of forecasting volatility in high-dimensional commodity markets. Building on the Network log-ARCH framework, we introduce a novel class of network topologies from GARCH-informed correlation…
In order to calculate the unobserved volatility in conditional heteroscedastic time series models, the natural recursive approximation is very often used. Following \cite{StraumannMikosch2006}, we will call the model \emph{invertible} if…
Two popular approaches for relating correlated measurements of a non-Gaussian response variable to a set of predictors are to fit a marginal model using generalized estimating equations and to fit a generalized linear mixed model by…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are commonplace in spatial statistics. Although many non-stationary models have been developed, there is arguably a lack of flexibility compared to equipping each location with its own parameters. However, the…
The class of observation-driven models (ODMs) includes many models of non-linear time series which, in a fashion similar to, yet different from, hidden Markov models (HMMs), involve hidden variables. Interestingly, in contrast to most HMMs,…
A standard model of (conditional) heteroscedasticity, i.e., the phenomenon that the variance of a process changes over time, is the Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, which is especially important for…
Classical moment based change point tests like the cusum test are very powerful in case of Gaussian time series with one change point but behave poorly under heavy tailed distributions and corrupted data. A new class of robust change point…
SVR-GARCH model tends to "backward eavesdrop" when forecasting the financial time series volatility in which case it tends to simply produce the prediction by deviating the previous volatility. Though the SVR-GARCH model has achieved good…
The Tweedie Compound Poisson-Gamma model is routinely used for modeling non-negative continuous data with a discrete probability mass at zero. Mixed models with random effects account for the covariance structure related to the grouping…
In this paper, we show that the recent integration of statistical models with deep recurrent neural networks provides a new way of formulating volatility (the degree of variation of time series) models that have been widely used in time…
We propose a method for inference in generalised linear mixed models (GLMMs) and several extensions of these models. First, we extend the GLMM by allowing the distribution of the random components to be non-Gaussian, that is, assuming an…
This thesis evaluates most of the extreme mixture models and methods that have appended in the literature and implements them in the context of finance and insurance. The paper also reviews and studies extreme value theory, time series,…
We propose a novel probabilistic model to facilitate the learning of multivariate tail dependence of multiple financial assets. Our method allows one to construct from known random vectors, e.g., standard normal, sophisticated joint…
We consider the analysis of continuous repeated measurement outcomes that are collected through time, also known as longitudinal data. A standard framework for analysing data of this kind is a linear Gaussian mixed-effects model within…
In this article, we study the asymptotic behaviour of the residual autocorrelations for periodic vector autoregressive time series models (PVAR henceforth) with uncorrelated but dependent innovations (i.e., weak PVAR). We then deduce the…
We propose to learn latent graphical models when data have mixed variables and missing values. This model could be used for further data analysis, including regression, classification, ranking etc. It also could be used for imputing missing…
In multivariate time series, the estimation of the covariance matrix of the observation innovations plays an important role in forecasting as it enables the computation of the standardized forecast error vectors as well as it enables the…
In this paper we describe fast Bayesian statistical analysis of vector positive-valued time series, with application to interesting financial data streams. We discuss a flexible level correlated model (LCM) framework for building…
We propose two approaches for selecting variables in latent class analysis (i.e.,mixture model assuming within component independence), which is the common model-based clustering method for mixed data. The first approach consists in…
The explosion of time series data in recent years has brought a flourish of new time series analysis methods, for forecasting, clustering, classification and other tasks. The evaluation of these new methods requires either collecting or…