Related papers: Estimating Earth's Temperature Response with Trans…
The long-term temperature response to a given change in CO2 forcing, or Earth-system sensitivity (ESS), is a key parameter quantifying our understanding about the relationship between changes in Earth's radiative forcing and the resulting…
Climate response metrics are used to quantify the Earth's climate response to anthropogenic changes of atmospheric CO2. Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) is one such metric that measures the equilibrium response to CO2 doubling.…
The temperature in the transient climate response is lower than the equilibrium temperature for the same amount of forcing. The degree of disequilibrium is not constant in time and depends on various climate parameters. We derive intuition…
The sensitivity of the radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere to surface temperature perturbations cannot be directly observed. The relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and top-of-atmosphere radiation can be estimated…
One of the most used metrics to gauge the effects of climate change is the equilibrium climate sensitivity, defined as the long-term (equilibrium) temperature increase resulting from instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO$_2$. Since…
Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change implies that fast-feedback equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is 1.2 +/- 0.3{\deg}C (2$\sigma$) per W/m$^2$. Consistent analysis of temperature over the full…
Changes in the atmospheric composition alter the magnitude and partitioning between the downward propagating solar and atmospheric longwave radiative fluxes heating the Earth's surface. These changes are computed by radiative transfer codes…
Climate sensitivity is defined as the change in global mean equilibrium temperature after a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration and provides a simple measure of global warming. An early estimate of climate sensitivity, 1.5-4.5{\deg}C,…
We consider the effect of different temporal error structures on the inference of equilibrium climate sensitivity\footnote{ECS is defined as the realized equilibrium surface warming---globally-averaged surface air temperature---for a…
The solar contribution to global mean air surface temperature change is analyzed by using an empirical bi-scale climate model characterized by both fast and slow characteristic time responses to solar forcing: $\tau_1 =0.4 \pm 0.1$ yr, and…
Molecular oxygen in our atmosphere has increased from less than a part per million in the Archean Eon, to a fraction of a percent in the Proterozoic, and finally to modern levels during the Phanerozoic. The ozone layer formed with the early…
The Sun is the primary source of energy for the Earth. The small changes in total solar irradiance (TSI) can affect our climate in the longer timescale. In the evolutionary timescale, the TSI varies by a large amount and hence its influence…
Many regions across the globe broke their surface temperature records in recent years, further sparking concerns about the impending arrival of "tipping points" later in the 21st century. This study analyzes observed global surface…
Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 co-variations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can…
Higher concentrations of atmospheric nitrous oxide (N2O) are expected to slightly warm Earth's surface because of increases in radiative forcing. Radiative forcing is the difference in the net upward thermal radiation flux from the Earth…
Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict…
Earth-Like is an interactive website and twitter bot that allows users to explore changes in the average global surface temperature of an Earth-like planet due to variations in the surface oceans and emerged land coverage, rate of volcanism…
Using optimal detection techniques with climate model simulations, most of the observed increase of near surface temperatures over the second half of the twentieth century is attributed to anthropogenic influences. However, the partitioning…
We show that radiative cooling profiles, when described in temperature coordinates, are insensitive to surface temperature $T_s$. We argue this theoretically as well as confirm it in cloud-resolving simulations of radiative convective…
A set of idealized experiments are performed to analyze the competing effects of declining atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the opening of an ocean gateway, and varying orbital parameters. These forcing mechanisms, which influence the global…