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In this paper we propose and study a class of simple, nonparametric, yet interpretable measures of conditional dependence between two random variables $Y$ and $Z$ given a third variable $X$, all taking values in general topological spaces.…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-20 Zhen Huang , Nabarun Deb , Bodhisattva Sen

Inferring the causal structure underlying stochastic dynamical systems from observational data holds great promise in domains ranging from science and health to finance. Such processes can often be accurately modeled via stochastic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Georg Manten , Cecilia Casolo , Emilio Ferrucci , Søren Wengel Mogensen , Cristopher Salvi , Niki Kilbertus

Testing conditional independence between two random vectors given a third is a fundamental and challenging problem in statistics, particularly in multivariate nonparametric settings due to the complexity of conditional structures. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-28 Chenxuan He , Yuan Gao , Liping Zhu , Jian Huang

Testing for conditional independence is a core aspect of constraint-based causal discovery. Although commonly used tests are perfect in theory, they often fail to reject independence in practice, especially when conditioning on multiple…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-13 Alexander Marx , Jilles Vreeken

This paper introduces the \textit{weighted partial copula} function for testing conditional independence. The proposed test procedure results from these two ingredients: (i) the test statistic is an explicit Cramer-von Mises transformation…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-15 Pascal Bianchi , Kevin Elgui , François Portier

Measuring conditional independence is one of the important tasks in statistical inference and is fundamental in causal discovery, feature selection, dimensionality reduction, Bayesian network learning, and others. In this work, we explore…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-08-18 Tianhong Sheng , Bharath K. Sriperumbudur

Independence testing is a classical statistical problem that has been extensively studied in the batch setting when one fixes the sample size before collecting data. However, practitioners often prefer procedures that adapt to the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-21 Aleksandr Podkopaev , Patrick Blöbaum , Shiva Prasad Kasiviswanathan , Aaditya Ramdas

We propose consistent nonparametric tests of conditional independence for time series data. Our methods are motivated from the difference between joint conditional cumulative distribution function (CDF) and the product of conditional CDFs.…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-10-12 Xiaojun Song , Haoyu Wei

Measuring and testing dependence between complex objects is of great importance in modern statistics. Most existing work relied on the distance between random variables, which inevitably required the moment conditions to guarantee the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-19 Yilin Zhang , Songshan Yang

Multivariate time series data that capture the temporal evolution of interconnected systems are ubiquitous in diverse areas. Understanding the complex relationships and potential dependencies among co-observed variables is crucial for the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-03 Zhaolu Liu , Robert L. Peach , Felix Laumann , Sara Vallejo Mengod , Mauricio Barahona

We propose the conditional predictive impact (CPI), a consistent and unbiased estimator of the association between one or several features and a given outcome, conditional on a reduced feature set. Building on the knockoff framework of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-14 David S. Watson , Marvin N. Wright

This work investigates the problem of testing whether $d$ functional random variables are jointly independent using a modified estimator of the $d$-variable Hilbert Schmidt Indepedence Criterion ($d$HSIC) which generalizes HSIC for the case…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-08-16 Terence Kevin Manfoumbi Djonguet , Guy Martial Nkiet

The conditional copula model arises when the dependence between random variables is influenced by another covariate. Despite its importance in modelling complex dependence structures, there are very few fully nonparametric approaches to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-07-30 Toihir Soulaimana Djaloud , Cheikh Tidiane Seck

We propose a new method to test conditional independence of two real random variables $Y$ and $Z$ conditionally on an arbitrary third random variable $X$. %with $F_{.|.}$ representing conditional distribution functions, The partial copula…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-01-25 Wicher Bergsma

Testing the dependency between two random variables is an important inference problem in statistics since many statistical procedures rely on the assumption that the two samples are independent. To test whether two samples are independent,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-04 Jin-Ting Zhang , Tianming Zhu

Measuring conditional dependence is an important topic in statistics with broad applications including graphical models. Under a factor model setting, a new conditional dependence measure based on projection is proposed. The corresponding…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-14 Jianqing Fan , Yang Feng , Lucy Xia

Conditional local independence is an asymmetric independence relation among continuous time stochastic processes. It describes whether the evolution of one process is directly influenced by another process given the histories of additional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-02-26 Alexander Mangulad Christgau , Lasse Petersen , Niels Richard Hansen

Conditional independence testing is a key problem required by many machine learning and statistics tools. In particular, it is one way of evaluating the usefulness of some features on a supervised prediction problem. We propose a novel…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-08-02 Marco Henrique de Almeida Inácio , Rafael Izbicki , Rafael Bassi Stern

A new non parametric approach to the problem of testing the independence of two random process is developed. The test statistic is the Hilbert Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC), which was used previously in testing independence for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-06-18 Kacper Chwialkowski , Arthur Gretton

We develope the framework of transitional conditional independence. For this we introduce transition probability spaces and transitional random variables. These constructions will generalize, strengthen and unify previous notions of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-08-30 Patrick Forré