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We present quantitative probing as a model-agnostic framework for validating causal models in the presence of quantitative domain knowledge. The method is constructed as an analogue of the train/test split in correlation-based machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-22 Daniel Grünbaum , Maike L. Stern , Elmar W. Lang

Matching is one of the most widely used causal inference frameworks in observational studies. However, all the existing matching-based causal inference methods are designed for either a single treatment with general treatment types (e.g.,…

The predominant method for evaluating the quality of causal models is to measure the graphical accuracy of the learned model structure. We present an alternative method for evaluating causal models that directly measures the accuracy of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-08-17 Dan Garant , David Jensen

Most existing methods for testing equality of means of functional data from multiple populations rely on assumptions of equal covariance and/or Gaussianity. In this work we provide a new testing method based on a statistic that is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-30 Chuang Xu , Andrew T. A. Wood , Yanrong Yang

As machine learning becomes increasingly central to molecular design, it is vital to ensure the reliability of learnable protein-ligand scoring functions on novel protein targets. While many scoring functions perform well on standard…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-08 Jakub Kopko , David Graber , Saltuk Mustafa Eyrilmez , Stanislav Mazurenko , David Bednar , Jiri Sedlar , Josef Sivic

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-06 Margaux Zaffran , Aymeric Dieuleveut , Julie Josse , Yaniv Romano

Inferring causal structure poses a combinatorial search problem that typically involves evaluating structures with a score or independence test. The resulting search is costly, and designing suitable scores or tests that capture prior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-16 Lars Lorch , Scott Sussex , Jonas Rothfuss , Andreas Krause , Bernhard Schölkopf

Testing whether a probability distribution is compatible with a given Bayesian network is a fundamental task in the field of causal inference, where Bayesian networks model causal relations. Here we consider the class of causal structures…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-04 Aditya Kela , Kai von Prillwitz , Johan Aberg , Rafael Chaves , David Gross

Many probabilistic models that have an intractable normalizing constant may be extended to contain covariates. Since the evaluation of the exact likelihood is difficult or even impossible for these models, score matching was proposed to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-03-21 Jiazhen Xu , Janice L. Scealy , Andrew T. A. Wood , Tao Zou

We propose a new inference framework called localized conformal prediction. It generalizes the framework of conformal prediction by offering a single-test-sample adaptive construction that emphasizes a local region around this test sample,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-03-02 Leying Guan

This study examines the generalization ability of algorithm performance prediction models across various benchmark suites. Comparing the statistical similarity between the problem collections with the accuracy of performance prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-22 Ana Nikolikj , Ana Kostovska , Gjorgjina Cenikj , Carola Doerr , Tome Eftimov

We develop a design-based framework for causal inference that accommodates random potential outcomes without introducing outcome models, thereby extending the classical Neyman--Rubin paradigm in which outcomes are treated as fixed. By…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-14 Yukai Yang

We study projective functions. We prove that projective functions generalise lower and upper-semianalytic ones while being stable by composition and difference. We show that the class of projective functions is closed under sums,…

Logic · Mathematics 2025-10-14 Laurence Carassus , Massinissa Ferhoune

This paper develops a general causal inference method for treatment effects models with noisily measured confounders. The key feature is that a large set of noisy measurements are linked with the underlying latent confounders through an…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-10-14 Yingjie Feng

Causal inference is a critical research area with multi-disciplinary origins and applications, ranging from statistics, computer science, economics, psychology to public health. In many scientific research, randomized experiments provide a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-26 Jingying Zeng

We propose a novel method for testing the null hypothesis of no effect of a covariate on the response in the context of functional linear concurrent regression. We establish an equivalent random effects formulation of our functional…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-12-16 Rahul Ghosal , Arnab Maity

The main goal of this paper is to present the application of structural sums, mathematical objects originating from the computational materials science, in construction of a feature space vector of 2D random composites simulated by…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2019-06-19 Wojciech Nawalaniec

We probe the foundations of causal structure inference experimentally. The causal structure concerns which events influence other events. We probe whether causal structure can be determined without intervention in quantum systems.…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-11-12 Hongfeng Liu , Xiangjing Liu , Qian Chen , Yixian Qiu , Vlatko Vedral , Xinfang Nie , Oscar Dahlsten , Dawei Lu

In this paper, we introduce the direct potential outcome system as a framework for analyzing dynamic causal effects of assignments on outcomes in observational time series settings. We provide conditions under which common predictive time…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-23 Ashesh Rambachan , Neil Shephard

We investigate generically applicable and intuitively appealing prediction intervals based on $k$-fold cross validation. We focus on the conditional coverage probability of the proposed intervals, given the observations in the training…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-05-13 Lukas Steinberger , Hannes Leeb
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