Related papers: Locally Linear Continual Learning for Time Series …
Time series with long-term structure arise in a variety of contexts and capturing this temporal structure is a critical challenge in time series analysis for both inference and forecasting settings. Traditionally, state space models have…
We introduce the Locally Linear Latent Variable Model (LL-LVM), a probabilistic model for non-linear manifold discovery that describes a joint distribution over observations, their manifold coordinates and locally linear maps conditioned on…
Designing models that are both expressive and preserve known invariances of tasks is an increasingly hard problem. Existing solutions tradeoff invariance for computational or memory resources. In this work, we show how to leverage…
This paper proposes a specific type of Local Linear Model, the Shuffled Linear Model (SLM), that can be used as a universal approximator. Local operating points are chosen randomly and linear models are used to approximate a function or…
Locally interpretable model agnostic explanations (LIME) method is one of the most popular methods used to explain black-box models at a per example level. Although many variants have been proposed, few provide a simple way to produce high…
This paper develops a unified and computationally efficient method for change-point estimation along the time dimension in a non-stationary spatio-temporal process. By modeling a non-stationary spatio-temporal process as a piecewise…
Time series are often complex and rich in information but sparsely labeled and therefore challenging to model. In this paper, we propose a self-supervised framework for learning generalizable representations for non-stationary time series.…
As black-box machine learning models grow in complexity and find applications in high-stakes scenarios, it is imperative to provide explanations for their predictions. Although Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) [22] is…
We present a new method for forecasting systems of multiple interrelated time series. The method learns the forecast models together with discovering leading indicators from within the system that serve as good predictors improving the…
Nonstationarity is ubiquitous in practical classification settings, leading deployed models to perform poorly even when they generalize well to holdout sets available at training time. We address this by reframing nonstationary…
CTR prediction in real-world business is a difficult machine learning problem with large scale nonlinear sparse data. In this paper, we introduce an industrial strength solution with model named Large Scale Piece-wise Linear Model (LS-PLM).…
This paper studies simultaneous inference of conditional distributions in nonlinear time series from a sieve M-regression perspective. Existing literature on sieve M-regression has primarily focused on pointwise asymptotics, leaving the…
Sampling-based planning is the predominant paradigm for motion planning in robotics. Most sampling-based planners use a global random sampling scheme to guarantee probabilistic completeness. However, most schemes are often inefficient as…
We show how machine-learning techniques, particularly neural networks, offer a very effective and highly efficient solution to the approximate model-checking problem for continuous and hybrid systems, a solution where the general-purpose…
Multivariate time series have many applications, from healthcare and meteorology to life science. Although deep learning models have shown excellent predictive performance for time series, they have been criticised for being "black-boxes"…
Robust Model Predictive Control (MPC) for nonlinear systems is a problem that poses significant challenges as highlighted by the diversity of approaches proposed in the last decades. Often compromises with respect to computational load,…
We propose the Taylorformer for random processes such as time series. Its two key components are: 1) the LocalTaylor wrapper which adapts Taylor approximations (used in dynamical systems) for use in neural network-based probabilistic…
Continual Learning (CL) focuses on maximizing the predictive performance of a model across a non-stationary stream of data. Unfortunately, CL models tend to forget previous knowledge, thus often underperforming when compared with an offline…
Scientific forecasting typically relies on direct state prediction, an approach that grows brittle under data scarcity, extended horizons, non-stationary dynamics, or high-dimensional complexity. While raw state trajectories are highly…
In this paper, we present a novel algorithm for piecewise linear regression which can learn continuous as well as discontinuous piecewise linear functions. The main idea is to repeatedly partition the data and learn a liner model in in each…