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Measurement of uncertainty of predictions from machine learning methods is important across scientific domains and applications. We present, to our knowledge, the first such technique that quantifies the uncertainty of predictions from a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-04 Alex Hagen , Karl Pazdernik , Nicole LaHaye , Marjolein Oostrom

While neural networks have demonstrated impressive performance across various tasks, accurately quantifying uncertainty in their predictions is essential to ensure their trustworthiness and enable widespread adoption in critical systems.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-11 Joseph Wilson , Chris van der Heide , Liam Hodgkinson , Fred Roosta

We propose a general method to carry out a valid Bayesian analysis of a finite-dimensional `targeted' parameter in the presence of a finite-dimensional nuisance parameter. We apply our methods to causal inference based on estimating…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Magid Sabbagh , David A. Stephens

Reliable uncertainty quantification is critical in high-stakes applications, such as medical diagnosis, where confidently incorrect predictions can erode trust in automated decision-making systems. Traditional uncertainty quantification…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-21 Hassan Gharoun , Mohammad Sadegh Khorshidi , Fang Chen , Amir H. Gandomi

Uncertainty quantification is a critical aspect of reinforcement learning and deep learning, with numerous applications ranging from efficient exploration and stable offline reinforcement learning to outlier detection in medical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-27 Moritz A. Zanger , Pascal R. Van der Vaart , Wendelin Böhmer , Matthijs T. J. Spaan

Automatic anatomical landmark localization has made great strides by leveraging deep learning methods in recent years. The ability to quantify the uncertainty of these predictions is a vital component needed for these methods to be adopted…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-20 Lawrence Schobs , Andrew J. Swift , Haiping Lu

Uncertainty quantification plays an important role in achieving trustworthy and reliable learning-based computational imaging. Recent advances in generative modeling and Bayesian neural networks have enabled the development of…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-07 Canberk Ekmekci , Mujdat Cetin

Advances in deep neural network (DNN) based molecular property prediction have recently led to the development of models of remarkable accuracy and generalization ability, with graph convolution neural networks (GCNNs) reporting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-09 Gabriele Scalia , Colin A. Grambow , Barbara Pernici , Yi-Pei Li , William H. Green

One major impediment to the wider use of deep learning for clinical decision making is the difficulty of assigning a level of confidence to model predictions. Currently, deep Bayesian neural networks and sparse Gaussian processes are the…

Bootstrap inference is a powerful tool for obtaining robust inference for quantiles and difference-in-quantiles estimators. The computationally intensive nature of bootstrap inference has made it infeasible in large-scale experiments. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-10 Mårten Schultzberg , Sebastian Ankargren

Reliable uncertainty quantification remains a central challenge in predictive modeling. While Bayesian methods are theoretically appealing, their predictive intervals can exhibit poor frequentist calibration, particularly with small sample…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-05 Graham Gibson

In stochastic simulation, input uncertainty refers to the output variability arising from the statistical noise in specifying the input models. This uncertainty can be measured by a variance contribution in the output, which, in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-20 Henry Lam , Huajie Qian

Uncertainty-quantification methods are applied to estimate the confidence of deep-neural-networks classifiers over their predictions. However, most widely used methods are known to be overconfident. We address this problem by developing an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-19 Luigi Sbailò , Luca M. Ghiringhelli

Accurately quantifying uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) is crucial for their reliable deployment, especially in high-stakes applications. Current state-of-the-art methods for measuring semantic uncertainty in LLMs rely on strict…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-31 Yashvir S. Grewal , Edwin V. Bonilla , Thang D. Bui

While deep neural networks have become the go-to approach in computer vision, the vast majority of these models fail to properly capture the uncertainty inherent in their predictions. Estimating this predictive uncertainty can be crucial,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-08 Fredrik K. Gustafsson , Martin Danelljan , Thomas B. Schön

Quantifying the uncertainty in penalized regression under group sparsity is an important open question. We establish, under a high-dimensional scaling, the asymptotic validity of a modified parametric bootstrap method for the group lasso,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-24 Qing Zhou , Seunghyun Min

We develop a new approach for estimating the risk of an arbitrary estimator of the mean vector in the classical normal means problem. The key idea is to generate two auxiliary data vectors, by adding carefully constructed normal noise…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-04-25 Natalia L. Oliveira , Jing Lei , Ryan J. Tibshirani

Mixture models are a popular tool in model-based clustering. Such a model is often fitted by a procedure that maximizes the likelihood, such as the EM algorithm. At convergence, the maximum likelihood parameter estimates are typically…

Computation · Statistics 2019-07-23 Adrian O'Hagan , Thomas Brendan Murphy , Luca Scrucca , Isobel Claire Gormley

Biopharmaceutical products, particularly monoclonal antibodies (mAbs), have gained prominence in the pharmaceutical market due to their high specificity and efficacy. As these products are projected to constitute a substantial portion of…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2024-09-05 Thanh Tung Khuat , Robert Bassett , Ellen Otte , Bogdan Gabrys

Many modern estimators require bootstrapping to calculate confidence intervals because either no analytic standard error is available or the distribution of the parameter of interest is non-symmetric. It remains however unclear how to…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-13 Michael Schomaker , Christian Heumann