Related papers: Macroeconomic Forecasting from Input-Output Tables…
This paper presents a novel Darwinian Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) methodology formacroeconomic forecasting that leverages evolutionary principles to achieve remarkablecomputational efficiency and emergent realism. Unlike conventional DSGE…
We present recent progress in the design and development of DEPLOYERS, an agent-based macroeconomics modeling (ABM) framework, capable to deploy and simulate a full economic system (individual workers, goods and services firms, government,…
To estimate the reaction of economies to political interventions or external disturbances, input-output (IO) tables -- constructed by aggregating data into industrial sectors -- are extensively used. However, economic growth, robustness,…
Ranking sectors and countries within global value chains is of paramount importance to estimate risks and forecast growth in large economies. However, this task is often non-trivial due to the lack of complete and accurate information on…
Empirical growth analysis has three major problems --- variable selection, parameter heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence --- which are addressed independently from each other in most studies. The purpose of this study is to propose…
We develop a unified model in which AI adoption in financial markets generates systemic risk through three mutually reinforcing channels: performative prediction, algorithmic herding, and cognitive dependency. Within an extended rational…
There are inefficiencies in financial markets, with unexploited patterns in price, volume, and cross-sectional relationships. While many approaches use large-scale transformers, we take a domain-focused path: feed-forward and recurrent…
Economic systems, traditionally analyzed as almost independent national systems, are increasingly connected on a global scale. Only recently becoming available, the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) is one of the first efforts to construct…
The gross domestic product (GDP) is the most widely used indicator in macroeconomics and the main tool for measuring a country's economic output. Due to the diversity and complexity of the world economy, a wide range of models have been…
We present a simple method for predicting the distribution of output growth and inflation in the G7 economies. The method is based on point forecasts published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as well as robust statistics from the…
Macroeconomic outcomes emerge from individuals' decisions, making it essential to model how agents interact with macro policy via consumption, investment, and labor choices. We formulate this as a dynamic Stackelberg game: the government…
Assessing the economic impacts of artificial intelligence requires integrating insights from both computer science and economics. We present the Growth and AI Transition Endogenous model (GATE), a dynamic integrated assessment model that…
In this era of Big Data, proficient use of data mining is the key to capture useful information from any dataset. As numerous data mining techniques make use of information theory concepts, in this paper, we discuss how Fisher information…
We analyze export data aggregated at world global level of 219 classes of products over a period of 39 years. Our main goal is to set up a dynamical model to identify and quantify plausible mechanisms by which the evolutions of the various…
In imitation learning from observation IfO, a learning agent seeks to imitate a demonstrating agent using only observations of the demonstrated behavior without access to the control signals generated by the demonstrator. Recent methods…
Real-world financial filings report critical information about an entity's investment holdings, essential for assessing that entity's risk, profitability, and relationship profile. Yet, these details are often buried in messy, multi-page,…
We formalize a macro-financial stress test for rapid AI adoption. Rather than a productivity bust or existential risk, we identify a distribution-and-contract mismatch: AI-generated abundance coexists with demand deficiency because economic…
Within the field of hierarchical modelling, little attention is paid to micro-macro models: those in which group-level outcomes are dependent on covariates measured at the level of individuals within groups. Although such models are perhaps…
Conventional financial strategy evaluation relies on isolated backtests in static environments. Such evaluations assess each policy independently, overlook correlations and interactions, and fail to explain why strategies ultimately persist…
We introduce the Free-Market Algorithm (FMA), a novel metaheuristic inspired by free-market economics. Unlike Genetic Algorithms, Particle Swarm Optimization, and Simulated Annealing -- which require prescribed fitness functions and fixed…