Related papers: Bayesian Model Calibration with Integrated Discrep…

Covariate measurement error in nonparametric regression is a common problem in nutritional epidemiology and geostatistics, and other fields. Over the last two decades, this problem has received substantial attention in the frequentist…

Calibration is a common experimental physics problem, whose goal is to infer the value and uncertainty of an unobservable quantity Z given a measured quantity X. Additionally, one would like to quantify the extent to which X and Z are…

Decarbonization of the transport sector sets increasingly strict demands to maximize thermal efficiency and minimize greenhouse gas emissions of Internal Combustion Engines. This has led to complex engines with a surge in the number of…

Bayesian Optimization (BO), guided by Gaussian process (GP) surrogates, has proven to be an invaluable technique for efficient, high-dimensional, black-box optimization, a critical problem inherent to many applications such as industrial…

Deterministic solutions of the Boltzmann equation represent a real challenge due to the enormous computational effort which is required to produce such simulations and often stochastic methods such as Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC)…

We introduce new Gaussian Process (GP) high-order approximations to linear operations that are frequently used in various numerical methods. Our method employs the kernel-based GP regression modeling, a non-parametric Bayesian approach to…

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a widely used framework for optimizing expensive black-box functions, commonly based on Gaussian process (GP) surrogate models. Its effectiveness relies on uncertainty quantification that is both sharp…

Bayesian hyperparameter optimization relies heavily on Gaussian Process (GP) surrogates, due to robust distributional posteriors and strong performance on limited training samples. GPs however underperform in categorical hyperparameter…

Reliable uncertainty estimates are crucial in modern machine learning. Deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs) and Deep Sigma Point Processes (DSPPs) extend GPs hierarchically, offering promising methods for uncertainty quantification grounded in…

We propose an iterative method to safely learn the unmodeled dynamics of a nonlinear system using Bayesian Gaussian process (GP) models with polynomial kernel functions. The method maintains safety by ensuring that the system state stays…

Model error estimation remains one of the key challenges in uncertainty quantification and predictive science. For computational models of complex physical systems, model error, also known as structural error or model inadequacy, is often…

Modern single-particle-tracking techniques produce extensive time-series of diffusive motion in a wide variety of systems, from single-molecule motion in living-cells to movement ecology. The quest is to decipher the physical mechanisms…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are broadly used as surrogate models for expensive computer simulators of complex phenomena. However, a key bottleneck is that its training data are generated from this expensive simulator and thus can be highly…

In a companion paper, we presented BayesCal, a mathematical formalism for mitigating sky-model incompleteness in interferometric calibration. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of BayesCal to calibrate the degenerate gain parameters of…

Calibration is crucial in deep learning applications, especially in fields like healthcare and autonomous driving, where accurate confidence estimates are vital for decision-making. However, deep neural networks often suffer from…

Bayesian conformal optimisation methods often use the same held-out data both to search for efficient prediction sets and to certify coverage or risk. This coupling is natural for high-probability risk-control guarantees, but it is not…

Accurate trajectory prediction is critical for safe autonomous navigation in crowded environments. While many trajectory predictors output Gaussian distributions to represent the multi-modal distribution over future pedestrian positions,…

There has been an intense development of Bayes graphical model estimation approaches over the past decade - however, most of the existing methods are restricted to moderate dimensions. We propose a novel approach suitable for high…

Computational simulation is increasingly relied upon for high-consequence engineering decisions, and a foundational element to solid mechanics simulations, such as finite element analysis (FEA), is a credible constitutive or material model.…

We study the calibration of Gaussian process (GP) predictive distributions in the interpolation setting from a design-marginal perspective. Conditioning on the data and averaging over a design measure \mu, we formalize \mu-coverage for…