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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) distributes heat and salt into the Northern Hemisphere via a warm surface current toward the subpolar North Atlantic, where water sinks and returns southwards as a deep cold current.…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-08-01 John Bailie , Bernd Krauskopf

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a crucial ocean current system, could transition to a weak state. Despite severe associated climate impacts, assessing the AMOC's response under global warming and its proximity to…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2026-03-09 Reyk Börner , Oliver Mehling , Jost von Hardenberg , Valerio Lucarini

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) transports substantial amounts of heat into the North Atlantic sector, and hence is of very high importance in regional climate projections. The AMOC has been observed to show…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2019-06-19 Hassan Alkhayuon , Peter Ashwin , Laura C Jackson , Courtney Quinn , Richard A Wood

Anticipating critical transitions in the Earth system is of great societal relevance, yet there may be intrinsic limitations to their predictability. For instance, from the theory of dynamical systems possessing multiple chaotic attractors,…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2024-01-30 Oliver Mehling , Reyk Börner , Valerio Lucarini

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a much studied component of the climate system, because its suspected multistability is associated with tipping behaviour yielding potentially large regional and global climatic…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-12-24 Johannes Lohmann , Valerio Lucarini

The tipping of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to a 'shutdown' state due to changes in the freshwater forcing of the ocean is of particular interest and concern due to its widespread ramifications, including a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-06-09 Alannah Neff , Andrew Keane , Henk A. Dijkstra , Bernd Krauskopf

The Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) is a system of surface and deep currents encompassing all ocean basins, crucial to the Earth's climate. Detecting potential climatic changes in the MOC first requires a careful characterisation…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-08-26 Tomas Jonathan

Vertical motions across the ocean are central to processes, like CO$_2$ fixation, heat removal or pollutant transport, which are essential to the Earth's climate. This work explores 3D conveyor routes {associated with} the Atlantic…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-12-24 Renzo Bruera , Jezabel Curbelo , Guillermo Garcia-Sanchez , Ana M. Mancho

We study hysteresis properties of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) under a slowly-varying North Atlantic (20$^{\circ}$N -- 50$^{\circ}$N) freshwater flux forcing in state-of-the-art Global Climate Model (GCM), the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-08-29 René M. van Westen , Henk A. Dijkstra

There is strong evidence that the present-day Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is in a bi-stable regime and hence it is important to determine probabilities and pathways for noise-induced transitions between its…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-08-27 Jelle Soons , Tobias Grafke , Henk A. Dijkstra

The Atlantic surface currents associated with the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) play a central role in regulating Earth's climate, yet their large scale dynamical response to climate variability remains poorly…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-14 Han Huang , Ningning Tao , Hongyu Wang , Teng Liu , Fei Xie , Xichen Li , Yongwen Zhang , Niklas Boers , Jingfang Fan , Deliang Chen , Xiaosong Chen

Climate variability on centennial timescales has often been linked to internal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, due to the scarceness of suitable paleoclimate proxies and long climate model…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-09-30 Oliver Mehling , Katinka Bellomo , Jost von Hardenberg

The variability of the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is influenced substantially by the formation of deep water in the North Atlantic. In many ocean models, so-called deep-decoupling oscillations have been…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-06-04 John Bailie , Henk A. Dijkstra , Bernd Krauskopf

The sensitivity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to changes in basin integrated net evaporation is highly dependent on the zonal salinity contrast at the southern border of the Atlantic. Biases in the freshwater…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2012-10-26 Andrea A. Cimatoribus , Matthijs den Toom , Sybren S. Drijfhout , Henk A. Dijkstra

A defining feature of the present-day global overturning circulation (GOC) is the absence of deep water formation in the Pacific, in contrast to the Atlantic. This asymmetry, associated with higher surface salinities in the North Atlantic,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-05-18 Elian Vanderborght , Oliver Mehling , Henk A. Dijkstra

Recently the global average temperature has temporarily exceeded the 1.5{\deg}C goal of the Paris Agreement, and so an overshoot of various climate tipping elements becomes increasingly likely. In this study we analyze the physical…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-04-18 Jelle Soons , Tobias Grafke , René M. van Westen , Henk A. Dijkstra

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is recognized as a tipping element within the global climate system. Central to its tipping behavior is the salt-advection feedback mechanism, which has been extensively studied in box…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-10-23 Elian Vanderborght , René M. van Westen , Henk A. Dijkstra

The Global Overturning Circulation (GOC) is a key component of the climate system, transporting heat, carbon, and salt throughout the global ocean. Previous reduced-dimensional models have sought to represent this three-dimensional…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-10-23 Elian Vanderborght , Henk A. Dijkstra

We address the issue of resilience of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) given the many indications that this dynamical system is in a multi-stable regime. A novel approach to resilience based on rare event techniques is…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-07-09 Valérian Jacques-Dumas , Henk A. Dijkstra , Christian Kuehn

A box model of the inter-hemispheric Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is developed, including a variable pycnocline depth for the tropical and subtropical regions. The circulation is forced by winds over a periodic channel in the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2012-11-07 Andrea A. Cimatoribus , Sybren S. Drijfhout , Henk A. Dijkstra
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