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Accurately estimating treatment effects over time is crucial in fields such as precision medicine, epidemiology, economics, and marketing. Many current methods for estimating treatment effects over time assume that all confounders are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-11 Mouad El Bouchattaoui , Myriam Tami , Benoit Lepetit , Paul-Henry Cournède

Estimating treatment effects over time holds significance in various domains, including precision medicine, epidemiology, economy, and marketing. This paper introduces a unique approach to counterfactual regression over time, emphasizing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-30 Mouad El Bouchattaoui , Myriam Tami , Benoit Lepetit , Paul-Henry Cournède

Estimating counterfactual outcomes over time from observational data is relevant for many applications (e.g., personalized medicine). Yet, state-of-the-art methods build upon simple long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, thus rendering…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-06 Valentyn Melnychuk , Dennis Frauen , Stefan Feuerriegel

Estimating counterfactual outcomes over time has the potential to unlock personalized healthcare by assisting decision-makers to answer ''what-iF'' questions. Existing causal inference approaches typically consider regular, discrete-time…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-17 Nabeel Seedat , Fergus Imrie , Alexis Bellot , Zhaozhi Qian , Mihaela van der Schaar

Treatment effect estimation, which refers to the estimation of causal effects and aims to measure the strength of the causal relationship, is of great importance in many fields but is a challenging problem in practice. As present,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-20 Zhenyu Guo , Shuai Zheng , Zhizhe Liu , Kun Yan , Zhenfeng Zhu

Unlike traditional supervised learning, in many settings only partial feedback is available. We may only observe outcomes for the chosen actions, but not the counterfactual outcomes associated with other alternatives. Such settings…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-09 Ruijiang Gao , Max Biggs , Wei Sun , Ligong Han

This paper introduces a simple framework of counterfactual estimation for causal inference with time-series cross-sectional data, in which we estimate the average treatment effect on the treated by directly imputing counterfactual outcomes…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-16 Licheng Liu , Ye Wang , Yiqing Xu

Estimating an individual's counterfactual outcomes under interventions is a challenging task for traditional causal inference and supervised learning approaches when the outcome is high-dimensional (e.g. gene expressions, facial images) and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Yulun Wu , Louie McConnell , Claudia Iriondo

Counterfactual reasoning is an important paradigm applicable in many fields, such as healthcare, economics, and education. In this work, we propose a novel method to address the issue of \textit{selection bias}. We learn two groups of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-20 Zichen Zhang , Qingfeng Lan , Lei Ding , Yue Wang , Negar Hassanpour , Russell Greiner

The ability to accurately perform counterfactual inference on time series is crucial for decision-making in fields like finance, healthcare, and marketing, as it allows us to understand the impact of events or treatments on outcomes over…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-18 Tomàs Garriga , Gerard Sanz , Eduard Serrahima de Cambra , Axel Brando

State-of-the-art methods for conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation make widespread use of representation learning. Here, the idea is to reduce the variance of the low-sample CATE estimation by a (potentially constrained)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-13 Valentyn Melnychuk , Dennis Frauen , Stefan Feuerriegel

Individual Treatment Effects (ITE) estimation methods have risen in popularity in the last years. Most of the time, individual effects are better presented as Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATE). Recently, representation balancing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-30 Ayoub Abraich , Agathe Guilloux , Blaise Hanczar

Within the field of causal inference, we consider the problem of estimating heterogeneous treatment effects from data. We propose and validate a novel approach for learning feature representations to aid the estimation of the conditional…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-23 Michael C. Burkhart , Gabriel Ruiz

Counterfactual explanations (CEs) aim to enhance the interpretability of machine learning models by illustrating how alterations in input features would affect the resulting predictions. Common CE approaches require an additional model and…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-10-02 Matan Atad , David Schinz , Hendrik Moeller , Robert Graf , Benedikt Wiestler , Daniel Rueckert , Nassir Navab , Jan S. Kirschke , Matthias Keicher

Estimation of temporal counterfactual outcomes from observed history is crucial for decision-making in many domains such as healthcare and e-commerce, particularly when randomized controlled trials (RCTs) suffer from high cost or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-13 Chuizheng Meng , Yihe Dong , Sercan Ö. Arık , Yan Liu , Tomas Pfister

Identifying when to give treatments to patients and how to select among multiple treatments over time are important medical problems with a few existing solutions. In this paper, we introduce the Counterfactual Recurrent Network (CRN), a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-12 Ioana Bica , Ahmed M. Alaa , James Jordon , Mihaela van der Schaar

The application of counterfactual explanation (CE) techniques in the realm of electroencephalography (EEG) classification has been relatively infrequent in contemporary research. In this study, we attempt to introduce and explore a novel…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-12-18 Kang Yin , Hye-Bin Shin , Hee-Dong Kim , Seong-Whan Lee

Estimating causal effects from observational data is challenging, especially in the presence of latent confounders. Much work has been done on addressing this challenge, but most of the existing research ignores the bias introduced by the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-15 Yang Xie , Ziqi Xu , Debo Cheng , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Yinghao Zhang , Zaiwen Feng

We introduce the Temporal Contrastive Transformer (TCT), a representation learning framework designed to capture contextual temporal dynamics in sequences of financial transactions. The model is trained using a self-supervised contrastive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-22 Danny Butvinik , Yonit Marcus , Nitzan Tal , Gabrielle Azoulay

Learning causal effects from observational data greatly benefits a variety of domains such as health care, education and sociology. For instance, one could estimate the impact of a new drug on specific individuals to assist the clinic plan…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-19 Xin Du , Lei Sun , Wouter Duivesteijn , Alexander Nikolaev , Mykola Pechenizkiy
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