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Bayesian inference with computationally expensive likelihood evaluations remains a significant challenge in many scientific domains. We propose normalizing flow regression (NFR), a novel offline inference method for approximating posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-17 Chengkun Li , Bobby Huggins , Petrus Mikkola , Luigi Acerbi

Cosmological inference becomes increasingly difficult when complex data-generating processes cannot be modeled by simple probability distributions. With the ever-increasing size of data sets in cosmology, there is increasing burden placed…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-05 Anja Weyant , Chad Schafer , W. Michael Wood-Vasey

We introduce two synthetic likelihood methods for Simulation-Based Inference (SBI), to conduct either amortized or targeted inference from experimental observations when a high-fidelity simulator is available. Both methods learn a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-19 Pierre Glaser , Michael Arbel , Samo Hromadka , Arnaud Doucet , Arthur Gretton

Simulation-based inference (SBI) allows fast Bayesian inference for simulators encoding implicit likelihoods. However, some explicit likelihoods cannot be easily reformulated as simulators, hindering their integration into combined analyses…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2025-11-19 Guillermo Franco Abellán , Noemi Anau Montel , Oleg Savchenko , Christoph Weniger

X-ray spectral fitting in high-energy astrophysics can be reliably accelerated using Machine Learning. In particular, Simulation-based Inference (SBI) produces accurate posterior distributions in the Gaussian and Poisson regime for…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-07-09 Simon Dupourqué , Didier Barret

Simulation-based inference (SBI) is an established approach for performing Bayesian inference on scientific simulators. SBI so far works best on low-dimensional parametric models. However, it is difficult to infer function-valued…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-17 Guy Moss , Leah Sophie Muhle , Reinhard Drews , Jakob H. Macke , Cornelius Schröder

Precise cosmological inference from next-generation weak lensing surveys requires extracting non-Gaussian information beyond standard two-point statistics. We present a hybrid machine-learning (ML) framework that integrates field-level…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2026-05-19 Jiacheng Ding , Chen Su , Ji Yao , Le Zhang , Huanyuan Shan

How much cosmological information can we reliably extract from existing and upcoming large-scale structure observations? Many summary statistics fall short in describing the non-Gaussian nature of the late-time Universe in comparison to…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2024-11-15 Kai Lehman , Sven Krippendorf , Jochen Weller , Klaus Dolag

Simulation-based imaging (SBI) is a blood flow imaging technique that optimally fits a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation to low-resolution, noisy magnetic resonance (MR) flow data to produce a high-resolution velocity field. In…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-10-01 Charles J. Naudet , Johannes Toger , Matthew J. Zahr

Understanding the entire history of the ionization state of the intergalactic medium (IGM) is at the frontier of astrophysics and cosmology. A promising method to achieve this is by extracting the damping wing signal from the neutral IGM.…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2023-11-29 Huanqing Chen , Joshua Speagle , Keir K. Rogers

Bayesian inference represents a principled way to incorporate Earth structure uncertainty in full-waveform moment tensor inversions, but traditional approaches generally require significant approximations that risk biasing the resulting…

Geophysics · Physics 2026-03-20 A. A. Saoulis , T. -S. Pham , A. M. G. Ferreira

We present cosmological constraints from weak lensing with the Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) first-year (Y1) data, using a simulation-based inference (SBI) method. % We explore the performance of a set of higher-order statistics (HOS)…

Normalizing flows are a powerful tool to create flexible probability distributions with a wide range of potential applications in cosmology. Here we are studying normalizing flows which represent cosmological observables at field level,…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2021-05-26 Adam Rouhiainen , Utkarsh Giri , Moritz Münchmeyer

Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets) offer a powerful framework for sampling graphs in proportion to their rewards. However, existing approaches suffer from systematic biases due to inaccuracies in state transition probability computations.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-17 Hohyun Kim , Seunggeun Lee , Min-hwan Oh

Many cosmological models have only a finite number of parameters of interest, but a very expensive data-generating process and an intractable likelihood function. We address the problem of performing likelihood-free Bayesian inference from…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2018-09-14 Florent Leclercq

Traditional cosmological inference using Type Ia supernovae (SNeIa) have used stretch- and color-corrected fits of SN Ia light curves and assumed a resulting fiducial mean and symmetric intrinsic dispersion for the resulting relative…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2016-10-17 Kara A. Ponder , W. Michael Wood-Vasey , Andrew R. Zentner

Single-molecule force spectroscopy (smFS) is a powerful approach to studying molecular self-organization. However, the coupling of the molecule with the ever-present experimental device introduces artifacts, that complicates the…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2023-04-25 Lars Dingeldein , Pilar Cossio , Roberto Covino

Diffusion models have recently emerged as powerful learners for simulation-based inference (SBI), enabling fast and accurate estimation of latent parameters from simulated and real data. Their score-based formulation offers a flexible way…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-30 Jonas Arruda , Niels Bracher , Ullrich Köthe , Jan Hasenauer , Stefan T. Radev

Many statistical models in cosmology can be simulated forwards but have intractable likelihood functions. Likelihood-free inference methods allow us to perform Bayesian inference from these models using only forward simulations, free from…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2018-04-11 Justin Alsing , Benjamin Wandelt , Stephen Feeney

Most of the fundamental, emergent, and phenomenological parameters of particle and nuclear physics are determined through parametric template fits. Simulations are used to populate histograms which are then matched to data. This approach is…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2025-03-12 Benjamin Sluijter , Sascha Diefenbacher , Wahid Bhimji , Benjamin Nachman
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