Related papers: Conformal e-prediction in the presence of confound…
Estimating an individual treatment effect (ITE) is essential to personalized decision making. However, existing methods for estimating the ITE often rely on unconfoundedness, an assumption that is fundamentally untestable with observed…
We derive a novel version of information-disturbance theorems for mutually unbiased observables. We show that the information gain by Eve inevitably makes the outcomes by Bob in the conjugate basis not only erroneous but random.
Estimating causal effects from observational data is not always possible due to confounding. Identifying a set of appropriate covariates (adjustment set) and adjusting for their influence can remove confounding bias; however, such a set is…
Given data on a random variable \(Y\), a prediction set with miscoverage level \(\alpha \in (0,1)\) is a set that contains a new draw of \(Y\) with probability \(1-\alpha\). Among all prediction sets satisfying this coverage property, the…
Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular method for uncertainty quantification with machine learning models. While conformal prediction provides probabilistic guarantees regarding the coverage of the true label, these guarantees are agnostic…
Automated decision support systems promise to help human experts solve multiclass classification tasks more efficiently and accurately. However, existing systems typically require experts to understand when to cede agency to the system or…
Given a set of experiments in which varying subsets of observed variables are subject to intervention, we consider the problem of identifiability of causal models exhibiting latent confounding. While identifiability is trivial when each…
The existence of an exactly marginal deformation in a conformal field theory is very special, but it is not well understood how this is reflected in the allowed dimensions and OPE coefficients of local operators. To shed light on this…
Conformal prediction is an uncertainty quantification method that constructs a prediction set for a previously unseen datum, ensuring the true label is included with a predetermined coverage probability. Adaptive conformal prediction has…
Conformal predictors are machine learning algorithms that output prediction sets that have a guarantee of marginal validity for finite samples with minimal distributional assumptions. This is a property that makes conformal predictors…
This research addresses the challenge of conducting interpretable causal inference between a binary treatment and its resulting outcome when not all confounders are known. Confounders are factors that have an influence on both the treatment…
A hybrid observer is described for estimating the state of a system of the form dot x=Ax, y_i=C_ix, i=1,...,m. The system's state x is simultaneously estimated by m agents assuming agent i senses y_i and receives appropriately defined data…
This paper develops novel conformal prediction methods for classification tasks that can automatically adapt to random label contamination in the calibration sample, leading to more informative prediction sets with stronger coverage…
Researchers regularly perform conditional prediction using imputed values of missing data. However, applications of imputation often lack a firm foundation in statistical theory. This paper originated when we were unable to find analysis…
We consider the task of out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization, where the distribution shift is due to an unobserved confounder ($Z$) affecting both the covariates ($X$) and the labels ($Y$). This confounding introduces heterogeneity in…
In a supervised online setting, quantifying uncertainty has been proposed in the seminal work of \cite{gibbs2021adaptive}. For any given point-prediction algorithm, their method (ACI) produces a conformal prediction set with an average…
We study the problem of empirical coordination subject to a fidelity criterion for a general set-up. We prove a result which indicates a strong connection between our framework and the framework of empirical coordination developed in [1].…
This work investigates the intersection property of conditional independence. It states that for random variables $A,B,C$ and $X$ we have that $X$ independent of $A$ given $B,C$ and $X$ independent of $B$ given $A,C$ implies $X$ independent…
Most of the stochastic orders for comparing random variables, considered in the literature, are afflicted with two main drawbacks: (i) lack of connex property and (ii) lack of consideration of any dependence structure between the random…
In this paper we study the constraints imposed by conformal invariance on extended objects a.k.a defects in a conformal field theory. We identify a particularly nice class of defects that is closed under conformal transformations.…