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We present a probabilistic deep learning methodology that enables the construction of predictive data-driven surrogates for stochastic systems. Leveraging recent advances in variational inference with implicit distributions, we put forth a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-01-16 Yibo Yang , Paris Perdikaris

Storm surge is a significant threat to coastal communities across the globe, responsible for loss of life and enormous property damage. Consequently, significant efforts have been expended to develop high-fidelity physics-based models for…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-03-30 Benjamin Pachev , Prateek Arora , Jinpai Zhao , Eirik Valseth

We demonstrate the adaption of three established methods to the field of surrogate machine learning model development. These methods are data augmentation, custom loss functions and transfer learning. Each of these methods have seen…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-04 H. Rhys Jones , Tingting Mu , Andrei C. Popescu , Yusuf Sulehman

Accurate electrical consumption forecasting is crucial for efficient energy management and resource allocation. While traditional time series forecasting relies on historical patterns and temporal dependencies, incorporating external…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-18 Fabien Bernier , Maxime Cordy , Yves Le Traon

Data assimilation presents computational challenges because many high-fidelity models must be simulated. Various deep-learning-based surrogate modeling techniques have been developed to reduce the simulation costs associated with these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-28 Su Jiang , Louis J. Durlofsky

This article presents an original methodology for the prediction of steady turbulent aerodynamic fields. Due to the important computational cost of high-fidelity aerodynamic simulations, a surrogate model is employed to cope with the…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2019-12-05 Romain Dupuis , Jean-Christophe Jouhaud , Pierre Sagaut

An initial study of surrogate-assisted evolutionary algorithms used to design vertical-axis wind turbines wherein candidate prototypes are evaluated under fan generated wind conditions after being physically instantiated by a 3D printer has…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2016-03-14 Richard J. Preen , Larry Bull

This paper introduces a generalised version of importance subsampling for time series reduction/aggregation in optimisation-based power system planning models. Recent studies indicate that reliably determining optimal electricity…

Applications · Statistics 2020-08-26 Adriaan P Hilbers , David J Brayshaw , Axel Gandy

While diffusion models can successfully generate data and make predictions, they are predominantly designed for static images. We propose an approach for efficiently training diffusion models for probabilistic spatiotemporal forecasting,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-12 Salva Rühling Cachay , Bo Zhao , Hailey Joren , Rose Yu

The increased penetration of wind power introduces more operational changes of critical corridors and the traditional time-consuming transient stability constrained total transfer capability (TTC) operational planning is unable to meet the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-06-30 Gao Qiu , Youbo Liu , Junyong Liu , Junbo Zhao , Lingfeng Wang , Tingjian Liu , Hongjun Gao

In this paper we study the efficacy of combining machine-learning methods with projection-based model reduction techniques for creating data-driven surrogate models of computationally expensive, high-fidelity physics models. Such surrogate…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2022-09-28 Kenny Chowdhary , Chi Hoang , Kookjin Lee , Jaideep Ray

Model merging techniques aim to integrate the abilities of multiple models into a single model. Most model merging techniques have hyperparameters, and their setting affects the performance of the merged model. Because several existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Rio Akizuki , Yuya Kudo , Nozomu Yoshinari , Yoichi Hirose , Toshiyuki Nishimoto , Kento Uchida , Shinichi Shirakawa

Merchant shipping is responsible for more than 90% of the global trade and has a significant environmental impact, accounting for over 2% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, fuel-saving measures are becoming increasingly…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2025-05-12 Malte Loft , Henning Schwarz , Thomas Rung

Optimizing energy consumption for robot navigation in fields requires energy-cost maps. However, obtaining such a map is still challenging, especially for large, uneven terrains. Physics-based energy models work for uniform, flat surfaces…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-12-14 Minghan Wei , Volkan Isler

Precise and reliable climate projections are required for climate adaptation and mitigation, but Earth system models still exhibit great uncertainties. Several approaches have been developed to reduce the spread of climate projections and…

Recent developments of advanced driver-assistance systems necessitate an increasing number of tests to validate new technologies. These tests cannot be carried out on track in a reasonable amount of time and automotive groups rely on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-16 Clara Carlier , Arnaud Franju , Matthieu Lerasle , Mathias Obrebski

Deep learning-based surrogate models offer a computationally efficient alternative to high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations for predicting urban wind flow. However, conventional approaches usually only yield…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-11-03 Reda Snaiki , Jiachen Lu , Shaopeng Li , Negin Nazarian

Climate models are essential to understand and project climate change, yet long-standing biases and uncertainties in their projections remain. This is largely associated with the representation of subgrid-scale processes, particularly…

Multifidelity surrogate modelling combines data of varying accuracy and cost from different sources. It strategically uses low-fidelity models for rapid evaluations, saving computational resources, and high-fidelity models for detailed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-24 Daniel N Wilke

Accurate models of the scrape-off layer are required for the design and operation of tokamak fusion reactors. Scrape-off layer simulations are computationally expensive, difficult to operate and suffer from numerical instabilities. A…

Plasma Physics · Physics 2026-04-22 Stefan Dasbach , Sebastijan Brezinsek , Yunfeng Liang , Dirk Reiser , Sven Wiesen