Related papers: Double Machine Learning for Time Series
While reachability analysis is one of the most promising approaches for formal verification of dynamic systems, a major disadvantage preventing a more widespread application is the requirement to manually tune algorithm parameters such as…
We consider the problem of neural network training in a time-varying context. Machine learning algorithms have excelled in problems that do not change over time. However, problems encountered in financial markets are often time-varying. We…
There are many interesting and widely used estimators of a functional with finite semiparametric variance bound that depend on nonparametric estimators of nuisance functions. We use cross-fitting (i.e. sample splitting) to construct novel…
Shrinkage algorithms are of great importance in almost every area of statistics due to the increasing impact of big data. Especially time series analysis benefits from efficient and rapid estimation techniques such as the lasso. However,…
In real-world time series forecasting, uncertainty and lack of reliable evaluation pose significant challenges. Notably, forecasting errors often arise from underfitting in-distribution data and failing to handle out-of-distribution inputs.…
This paper provides an introduction to Double/Debiased Machine Learning (DML). DML is a general approach to performing inference about a target parameter in the presence of nuisance functions: objects that are needed to identify the target…
Debiased machine learning is a meta algorithm based on bias correction and sample splitting to calculate confidence intervals for functionals, i.e. scalar summaries, of machine learning algorithms. For example, an analyst may desire the…
The inference performance of the pseudolikelihood method is discussed in the framework of the inverse Ising problem when the $\ell_2$-regularized (ridge) linear regression is adopted. This setup is introduced for theoretically investigating…
Inverse Ising inference allows pairwise interactions of complex binary systems to be reconstructed from empirical correlations. Typical estimators used for this inference, such as Pseudo-likelihood maximization (PLM), are biased. Using the…
We introduce a data-driven approach to computing finite bisimulations for state transition systems with very large, possibly infinite state space. Our novel technique computes stutter-insensitive bisimulations of deterministic systems,…
We study the bias of classical quantile regression and instrumental variable quantile regression estimators. While being asymptotically first-order unbiased, these estimators can have non-negligible second-order biases. We derive a…
Time series anomaly detection is instrumental in maintaining system availability in various domains. Current work in this research line mainly focuses on learning data normality deeply and comprehensively by devising advanced neural network…
This paper is concerned with the estimation of time-varying networks for high-dimensional nonstationary time series. Two types of dynamic behaviors are considered: structural breaks (i.e., abrupt change points) and smooth changes. To…
Multivariate time series are ubiquitous objects in signal processing. Measuring a distance or similarity between two such objects is of prime interest in a variety of applications, including machine learning, but can be very difficult as…
In high-dimensional data analysis, bi-level sparsity is often assumed when covariates function group-wisely and sparsity can appear either at the group level or within certain groups. In such cases, an ideal model should be able to…
Approximate Bayesian inference on the basis of summary statistics is well-suited to complex problems for which the likelihood is either mathematically or computationally intractable. However the methods that use rejection suffer from the…
In this paper, we propose a triple (or double-debiased) Lasso estimator for inference on a low-dimensional parameter in high-dimensional linear regression models. The estimator is based on a moment function that satisfies not only first-…
In this work, we consider the off-policy policy evaluation problem for contextual bandits and finite horizon reinforcement learning in the nonstationary setting. Reusing old data is critical for policy evaluation, but existing estimators…
Neural networks have revolutionized many empirical fields, yet their application to financial time series forecasting remains controversial. In this study, we demonstrate that the conventional practice of estimating models locally in…
Motivated by the application to German interest rates, we propose a timevarying autoregressive model for short and long term prediction of time series that exhibit a temporary non-stationary behavior but are assumed to mean revert in the…