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Screening and surveillance are routinely used in medicine for early detection of disease and close monitoring of progression. Biomarkers are one of the primarily tools used for these tasks, but their successful translation to clinical…

Background: Effective allocation of limited donor lungs in cystic fibrosis (CF) requires accurate survival predictions, so that high-risk patients may be prioritized for transplantation. In practice, decisions about allocation are made…

Applications · Statistics 2017-06-30 Aasthaa Bansal , Nicole Mayer-Hamblett , Christopher H. Goss , Patrick J. Heagerty

We consider planning longitudinal covariate measurements in follow-up studies where covariates are time-varying. We assume that the entire cohort cannot be selected for longitudinal measurements due to financial limitations and study how a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-03 Jaakko Reinikainen , Juha Karvanen

Utilizing established risk factors and prognostic models can often improve the construction of a newer risk model that uses novel biomarkers in a smaller, internal study. However, directly borrowing information from an established…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-12 Nicholas C. Henderson

When drawing causal inferences about the effects of multiple treatments on clustered survival outcomes using observational data, we need to address implications of the multilevel data structure, multiple treatments, censoring and unmeasured…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-18 Liangyuan Hu , Jiayi Ji , Ronald D. Ennis , Joseph W. Hogan

Assessing the causal effect of time-varying exposures on recurrent event processes is challenging in the presence of a terminating event. Our objective is to estimate both the short-term and delayed marginal causal effects of exposures on…

Background: Incidence of adverse outcome events rises as patients with advanced illness approach end-of-life. Exposures that tend to occur near end-of-life, e.g., use of wheelchair, oxygen therapy and palliative care, may therefore be found…

This work presents a new model and estimation procedure for the illness-death survival data where the hazard functions follow accelerated failure time (AFT) models. A shared frailty variate induces positive dependence among failure times of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-10 Lea Kats , Malka Gorfine

Objectives: Prior event rate ratio (PERR) is a method shown to perform well in mitigating confounding in real-world evidence research but it depends on several model assumptions. We propose an analytic strategy to correct biases arising…

Applications · Statistics 2026-03-03 Xiangmei Ma , Grace Meijuan Yang , Qingyuan Zhuang , Yin Bun Cheung

Most statistical tests for treatment effects used in randomized clinical trials with survival outcomes are based on the proportional hazards assumption, which often fails in practice. Data from early exploratory studies may provide evidence…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-28 Andrea Arfé , Brian Alexander , Lorenzo Trippa

What can be considered an appropriate statistical method for the primary analysis of a randomized clinical trial (RCT) with a time-to-event endpoint when we anticipate non-proportional hazards owing to a delayed effect? This question has…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-18 José L. Jiménez , Isobel Barrott , Francesca Gasperoni , Dominic Magirr

We propose a novel approach for estimating mean survival time in the presence of censored data, in which we divide the population under study into survival-ordered fractions defined by a set of proportions, and compute the mean survival…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-18 Celia García-Pareja , Matteo Bottai

Covariate adjustment is desired by both practitioners and regulators of randomized clinical trials because it improves precision for estimating treatment effects. However, covariate adjustment presents a particular challenge in…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-20 Yunfan Li , Jessica L. Ross , Aaron M. Smith , David P. Miller

We propose a restricted win probability estimand for comparing treatments in a randomized trial with a time-to-event outcome. We also propose Bayesian estimators for this summary measure as well as the unrestricted win probability. Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-06 Michelle Leeberg , Xianghua Luo , Thomas A. Murray

Early screening for cancer has proven to improve the survival rate and spare patients from intensive and costly treatments due to late diagnosis. Cancer screening in the healthy population involves an initial risk stratification step to…

In the absence of data from a randomized trial, researchers often aim to use observational data to draw causal inference about the effect of a treatment on a time-to-event outcome. In this context, interest often focuses on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-15 Ted Westling , Alex Luedtke , Peter Gilbert , Marco Carone

Non-parametric maximum likelihood estimation encompasses a group of classic methods to estimate distribution-associated functions from potentially censored and truncated data, with extensive applications in survival analysis. These methods,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-05 Justin D. Tubbs , Lane Guolan Chen , Thuan Quoc Thach , Pak C. Sham

We present a new estimator of the restricted mean survival time in randomized trials where there is right censoring that may depend on treatment and baseline variables. The proposed estimator leverages prognostic baseline variables to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-22 Iván Díaz , Elizabeth Colantuoni , Daniel F. Hanley , Michael Rosenblum

The progression-free survival ratio (PFSr) is a widely used measure in personalized oncology trials. It evaluates the effectiveness of treatment by comparing two consecutive event times - one under standard therapy and one under an…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-23 Merle Munko , Simon Mack , Marc Ditzhaus , Stefan Fröhling , Dennis Dobler , Dominic Edelmann

In clinical studies, the risk of the primary (terminal) event may be modified by intermediate events, resulting in semicompeting risks. To study the treatment effect on the terminal event mediated by the intermediate event, researchers wish…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-26 Yuhao Deng , Rui Wang , Tao Zhang , Xiang Zhan