Related papers: An operator-level ARCH Model
This study delves into the domain of dynamical systems, specifically the forecasting of dynamical time series defined through an evolution function. Traditional approaches in this area predict the future behavior of dynamical systems by…
This paper introduces a Threshold Asymmetric Conditional Autoregressive Range (TACARR) formulation for modeling the daily price ranges of financial assets. It is assumed that the process generating the conditional expected ranges at each…
In this paper, we propose an Adaptive Realized Hyperbolic GARCH (A-Realized HYGARCH) process to model the long memory of high-frequency time series with possible structural breaks. The structural change is modeled by allowing the intercept…
This article proposes a Model Reference Adaptive Control (MRAC) strategy to achieve fixed-time convergence of parameter estimation and tracking errors for unknown linear time-invariant systems, without relying on the persistence of…
In extracting time series data from various sources, it is inevitable to compile variables measured at varying frequencies as this is often dependent on the source. Modeling from these data can be facilitated by aggregating high frequency…
We present a general theory to quantify the uncertainty from imposing structural assumptions on the second-order structure of nonstationary Hilbert space-valued processes, which can be measured via functionals of time-dependent spectral…
We introduce a novel GARCH model that integrates two sources of uncertainty to better capture the rich, multi-component dynamics often observed in the volatility of financial assets. This model provides a quasi closed-form representation of…
We propose a new class of models specifically tailored for spatio-temporal data analysis. To this end, we generalize the spatial autoregressive model with autoregressive and heteroskedastic disturbances, i.e. SARAR(1,1), by exploiting the…
High-dimensional time series has diverse applications in econometrics and finance. Recent models for capturing temporal dependence have employed a bilinear representation for matrix time series, or the Tucker-decomposition based…
Compositional data, such as regional shares of economic sectors or property transactions, are central to understanding structural change in economic systems across space and time. This paper introduces a spatiotemporal multivariate…
The autoregressive Hilbertian model (ARH) was introduced in the early 90's by Denis Bosq. It was the subject of a vast literature and gave birth to numerous extensions. The model generalizes the classical multidimensional autoregressive…
High-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models provide a flexible framework for characterizing dynamic dependence in multivariate spatio-temporal systems, but their unrestricted estimation becomes infeasible when multiple variables are…
We propose a general class of INteger-valued Generalized AutoRegressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic (INGARCH) processes by allowing time-varying mean and dispersion parameters, which we call time-varying dispersion INGARCH (tv-DINGARCH)…
We study, both analytically and numerically, an ARCH-like, multiscale model of volatility, which assumes that the volatility is governed by the observed past price changes on different time scales. With a power-law distribution of time…
This study addresses the computational challenges of forecasting volatility in high-dimensional commodity markets. Building on the Network log-ARCH framework, we introduce a novel class of network topologies from GARCH-informed correlation…
We develop a theory of evolutionary spectra for heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation robust (HAR) inference when the data may not satisfy second-order stationarity. Nonstationarity is a common feature of economic time series which may…
Models for heteroskedastic data are relevant in a wide variety of applications ranging from financial time series to environmental statistics. However, the topic of modeling the variance function conditionally has not seen near as much…
Range-measured return contains more information than the traditional scalar-valued return. In this paper, we propose to model the [low, high] price range as a random interval and suggest an interval-valued GARCH (Int-GARCH) model for the…
SVR-GARCH model tends to "backward eavesdrop" when forecasting the financial time series volatility in which case it tends to simply produce the prediction by deviating the previous volatility. Though the SVR-GARCH model has achieved good…
As a special infinite-order vector autoregressive (VAR) model, the vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) model can capture much richer temporal patterns than the widely used finite-order VAR model. However, its practicality has long…