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For measuring tail risk with scarce extreme events, extreme value analysis is often invoked as the statistical tool to extrapolate to the tail of a distribution. The presence of large datasets benefits tail risk analysis by providing more…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-18 Liujun Chen , Deyuan Li , Chen Zhou

Automatic anomaly detection is a major issue in various areas. Beyond mere detection, the identification of the origin of the problem that produced the anomaly is also essential. This paper introduces a general methodology that can assist…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-09-17 Tsirizo Rabenoro , Jérôme Lacaille , Marie Cottrell , Fabrice Rossi

Anomaly detection is referred to as a process in which the aim is to detect data points that follow a different pattern from the majority of data points. Anomaly detection methods suffer from several well-known challenges that hinder their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-31 Kasra Babaei , Zhi Yuan Chen , Tomas Maul

Reconstruction error is a prevalent score used to identify anomalous samples when data are modeled by generative models, such as (variational) auto-encoders or generative adversarial networks. This score relies on the assumption that normal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-29 Václav Šmídl , Jan Bím , Tomáš Pevný

This paper proposes a scoring-rule-based method for ranking predictive distributions in the Fr\'echet domain that is able to distinguish between different tail indices. The approach is built on normalized order statistics and exploits…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-26 Martin Bladt , Christoffer Øhlenschlæger

Estimation of tail quantities, such as expected shortfall or Value at Risk, is a difficult problem. We show how the theory of nonlinear expectations, in particular the Data-robust expectation introduced in [5], can assist in the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-02-15 Samuel N. Cohen

Different questions related with analysis of extreme values and outliers arise frequently in practice. To exclude extremal observations and outliers is not a good decision because they contain important information about the observed…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-17 Pavlina K. Jordanova , Monika P. Petkova

In many areas of interest, modern risk assessment requires estimation of the extremal behaviour of sums of random variables. We derive the first order upper-tail behaviour of the weighted sum of bivariate random variables under weak…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-08-17 Jordan Richards , Jonathan A. Tawn

The HDoutliers algorithm is a powerful unsupervised algorithm for detecting anomalies in high-dimensional data, with a strong theoretical foundation. However, it suffers from some limitations that significantly hinder its performance level,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-08-13 Priyanga Dilini Talagala , Rob J. Hyndman , Kate Smith-Miles

Dynamic graph anomaly detection (DGAD) is critical for many real-world applications but remains challenging due to the scarcity of labeled anomalies. Existing methods are either unsupervised or semi-supervised: unsupervised methods avoid…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Yuxing Tian , Yiyan Qi , Fengran Mo , Weixu Zhang , Jian Guo , Jian-Yun Nie

Unsupervised anomaly detection in time-series has been extensively investigated in the literature. Notwithstanding the relevance of this topic in numerous application fields, a comprehensive and extensive evaluation of recent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-13 Nesryne Mejri , Laura Lopez-Fuentes , Kankana Roy , Pavel Chernakov , Enjie Ghorbel , Djamila Aouada

Semi-supervised anomaly detection is based on the principle that potential anomalies are those records that look different from normal training data. However, in some cases we are specifically interested in anomalies that correspond to high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-06 Oliver Urs Lenz , Matthijs van Leeuwen

The upper tail of a claim size distribution of a property line of business is frequently modelled by Pareto distribution. However, the upper tail does not need to be Pareto distributed, extraordinary shapes are possible. Here, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-19 Mathias Raschke

Novelty detection is the unsupervised problem of identifying anomalies in test data which significantly differ from the training set. Novelty detection is one of the classic challenges in Machine Learning and a core component of several…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-06 Rémi Domingues

Anomaly detection is a common analytical task that aims to identify rare cases that differ from the typical cases that make up the majority of a dataset. When applied to the analysis of event sequence data, the task of anomaly detection can…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2020-04-16 Shunan Guo , Zhuochen Jin , Qing Chen , David Gotz , Hongyuan Zha , Nan Cao

Anomaly detection is an important task for complex systems (e.g., industrial facilities, manufacturing, large-scale science experiments), where failures in a sub-system can lead to low yield, faulty products, or even damage to components.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-06 Ryan Humble , Zhe Zhang , Finn O'Shea , Eric Darve , Daniel Ratner

The analysis of extremal dependence in high dimensions has recently attracted considerable interest. Existing methodology primarily focuses on modeling and estimation of extremal dependence structures, often supported by concentration…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-02 Axel Bücher , Yeonjoon Choi , Katharina Effertz , Stanislav Volgushev

Anomaly detection on multivariate time-series is of great importance in both data mining research and industrial applications. Recent approaches have achieved significant progress in this topic, but there is remaining limitations. One major…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-07 Hang Zhao , Yujing Wang , Juanyong Duan , Congrui Huang , Defu Cao , Yunhai Tong , Bixiong Xu , Jing Bai , Jie Tong , Qi Zhang

In the real world, the frequency of occurrence of objects is naturally skewed forming long-tail class distributions, which results in poor performance on the statistically rare classes. A promising solution is to mine tail-class examples to…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-12-16 Gursimran Singh , Lingyang Chu , Lanjun Wang , Jian Pei , Qi Tian , Yong Zhang

Anomaly detection in time-series has a wide range of practical applications. While numerous anomaly detection methods have been proposed in the literature, a recent survey concluded that no single method is the most accurate across various…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-14 Mononito Goswami , Cristian Challu , Laurent Callot , Lenon Minorics , Andrey Kan