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We propose a new class of parameterizations for spatio-temporal point processes which leverage Neural ODEs as a computational method and enable flexible, high-fidelity models of discrete events that are localized in continuous time and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-19 Ricky T. Q. Chen , Brandon Amos , Maximilian Nickel

We investigate the limiting behavior of discrete determinantal point processes (DPPs) towards continuous DPPs when the size of the set to sample from goes to infinity. We propose a non-asymptotic characterization of this limit in terms of…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-03 Hugo Jaquard , Nicolas Keriven

Continuous-time long-term event prediction plays an important role in many application scenarios. Most existing works rely on autoregressive frameworks to predict event sequences, which suffer from error accumulation, thus compromising…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-03 Wang-Tao Zhou , Zhao Kang , Ling Tian

Many real-world objects can be modeled as a stream of events on the nodes of a graph. In this paper, we propose a class of graphical event models named temporal point process graphical models for representing the temporal dependencies among…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-25 Yalong Lyu , Huiyuan Wang , Wei Lin

Importance sampling is a technique that is commonly used to speed up Monte Carlo simulation of rare events. However, little is known regarding the design of efficient importance sampling algorithms in the context of queueing networks. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Paul Dupuis , Ali Devin Sezer , Hui Wang

Autoregressive neural networks within the temporal point process (TPP) framework have become the standard for modeling continuous-time event data. Even though these models can expressively capture event sequences in a one-step-ahead…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-21 David Lüdke , Marin Biloš , Oleksandr Shchur , Marten Lienen , Stephan Günnemann

Temporal networks have been increasingly used to model a diversity of systems that evolve in time; for example human contact structures over which dynamic processes such as epidemics take place. A fundamental aspect of real-life networks is…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-11-08 Luis E C Rocha , Naoki Masuda , Petter Holme

A new type of dependent thinning for point processes in continuous space is proposed, which leverages the advantages of determinantal point processes defined on finite spaces and, as such, is particularly amenable to statistical, numerical,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-19 Bartłomiej Błaszczyszyn , Paul Keeler

Determinantal point processes (DPPs) are random point processes well-suited for modeling repulsion. In machine learning, the focus of DPP-based models has been on diverse subset selection from a discrete and finite base set. This discrete…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-11-14 Raja Hafiz Affandi , Emily B. Fox , Ben Taskar

A new class of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, based on simulating piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs), have recently shown great promise: they are non-reversible, can mix better than standard MCMC algorithms, and…

Computation · Statistics 2020-10-23 Augustin Chevallier , Paul Fearnhead , Matthew Sutton

When analyzing data from multiple sources, it is often convenient to strike a careful balance between two goals: capturing the heterogeneity of the samples and sharing information across them. We introduce a novel framework to model a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-02 Laura D'Angelo , Bernardo Nipoti , Andrea Ongaro

We demonstrate the effectiveness of the categorical distribution as a neural network output for next event prediction. This is done for both discrete-time and continuous-time event sequences. To model continuous-time processes, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-26 Kevin Doran , Tom Baden

Point processes offer a versatile framework for sequential event modeling. However, the computational challenges and constrained representational power of the existing point process models have impeded their potential for wider…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-22 Zheng Dong , Zekai Fan , Shixiang Zhu

Spatio-temporal point process (STPP) is a stochastic collection of events accompanied with time and space. Due to computational complexities, existing solutions for STPPs compromise with conditional independence between time and space,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-27 Yuan Yuan , Jingtao Ding , Chenyang Shao , Depeng Jin , Yong Li

Determinantal Point Processes (DPPs) are elegant probabilistic models of repulsion and diversity over discrete sets of items. But their applicability to large sets is hindered by expensive cubic-complexity matrix operations for basic tasks…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-05-31 Chengtao Li , Stefanie Jegelka , Suvrit Sra

We consider the problem of modeling the dynamics of continuous spatial-temporal processes represented by irregular samples through both space and time. Such processes occur in sensor networks, citizen science, multi-robot systems, and many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-04 Erich Merrill , Stefan Lee , Li Fuxin , Thomas G. Dietterich , Alan Fern

Discrete flow models (DFMs) have been proposed to learn the data distribution on finite state space, offering a flexible framework as an alternative to discrete diffusion models. A line of recent work has studied samplers for discrete…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-28 Zhengyan Wan , Yidong Ouyang , Liyan Xie , Hongyuan Zha , Fang Fang , Guang Cheng

Discrete diffusion models are a class of generative models that produce samples from an approximated data distribution within a discrete state space. Often, there is a need to target specific regions of the data distribution. Current…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Cheuk Kit Lee , Paul Jeha , Jes Frellsen , Pietro Lio , Michael Samuel Albergo , Francisco Vargas

Despite Flow Matching and diffusion models having emerged as powerful generative paradigms for continuous variables such as images and videos, their application to high-dimensional discrete data, such as language, is still limited. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-06 Itai Gat , Tal Remez , Neta Shaul , Felix Kreuk , Ricky T. Q. Chen , Gabriel Synnaeve , Yossi Adi , Yaron Lipman

Diffusion models generate high-quality synthetic data. They operate by defining a continuous-time forward process which gradually adds Gaussian noise to data until fully corrupted. The corresponding reverse process progressively "denoises"…