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Infinite horizon off-policy policy evaluation is a highly challenging task due to the excessively large variance of typical importance sampling (IS) estimators. Recently, Liu et al. (2018a) proposed an approach that significantly reduces…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-17 Ziyang Tang , Yihao Feng , Lihong Li , Dengyong Zhou , Qiang Liu

We provide a comparative study of several widely used off-policy estimators (Empirical Average, Basic Importance Sampling and Normalized Importance Sampling), detailing the different regimes where they are individually suboptimal. We then…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-01-30 Thomas Nedelec , Nicolas Le Roux , Vianney Perchet

Offline policy learning is aimed at learning decision-making policies using existing datasets of trajectories without collecting additional data. The primary motivation for using reinforcement learning (RL) instead of supervised learning…

Conformal prediction provides a principled framework for uncertainty quantification with finite-sample coverage guarantees. While recent work has extended conformal prediction to online and sequential settings, existing methods typically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-14 Eduardo Ochoa Rivera , Ambuj Tewari

During the last few decades, online controlled experiments (also known as A/B tests) have been adopted as a golden standard for measuring business improvements in industry. In our company, there are more than a billion users participating…

Applications · Statistics 2021-08-06 Tao Xiong , Yihan Bao , Penglei Zhao , Yong Wang

Multi-objective optimization is a type of decision making problems where multiple conflicting objectives are optimized. We study offline optimization of multi-objective policies from data collected by an existing policy. We propose a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-31 Shima Alizadeh , Aniruddha Bhargava , Karthick Gopalswamy , Lalit Jain , Branislav Kveton , Ge Liu

We study offline reinforcement learning in average-reward MDPs, which presents increased challenges from the perspectives of distribution shift and non-uniform coverage, and has been relatively underexamined from a theoretical perspective.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-23 Matthew Zurek , Guy Zamir , Yudong Chen

Online reinforcement learning and other adaptive sampling algorithms are increasingly used in digital intervention experiments to optimize treatment delivery for users over time. In this work, we focus on longitudinal user data collected by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-20 Kelly W. Zhang , Lucas Janson , Susan A. Murphy

This work explores use of novel advances in best subset selection for regression modelling via continuous optimization for offline change point detection and estimation in univariate Gaussian data sequences. The approach exploits…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-08 Hans Reimann , Sarat Moka , Georgy Sofronov

Efficient methods to evaluate new algorithms are critical for improving interactive bandit and reinforcement learning systems such as recommendation systems. A/B tests are reliable, but are time- and money-consuming, and entail a risk of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-04 Yusuke Narita , Shota Yasui , Kohei Yata

We consider a three-level meta-analysis of standardized mean differences. The standard method of estimation uses inverse-variance weights and REML/PL estimation of variance components for the random effects. We introduce new moment-based…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-05 Elena Kulinskaya , David C. Hoaglin

We consider the problem of off-policy evaluation in Markov decision processes. Off-policy evaluation is the task of evaluating the expected return of one policy with data generated by a different, behavior policy. Importance sampling is a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-13 Josiah P. Hanna , Scott Niekum , Peter Stone

Covariate imbalance between treatment groups makes it difficult to compare cumulative incidence curves in competing risk analyses. In this paper we discuss different methods to estimate adjusted cumulative incidence curves including inverse…

In real-world recommender systems and search engines, optimizing ranking decisions to present a ranked list of relevant items is critical. Off-policy evaluation (OPE) for ranking policies is thus gaining a growing interest because it…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-04 Haruka Kiyohara , Yuta Saito , Tatsuya Matsuhiro , Yusuke Narita , Nobuyuki Shimizu , Yasuo Yamamoto

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) enables learning effective policies from fixed datasets without any environment interaction. Existing methods typically employ policy constraints to mitigate the distribution shift encountered during…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-30 Tan Jing , Xiaorui Li , Chao Yao , Xiaojuan Ban , Yuetong Fang , Renjing Xu , Zhaolin Yuan

Reinforcement Learning aims at identifying and evaluating efficient control policies from data. In many real-world applications, the learner is not allowed to experiment and cannot gather data in an online manner (this is the case when…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-02 Daniele Foffano , Alessio Russo , Alexandre Proutiere

The partitioning of data for estimation and calibration critically impacts the performance of propensity score based estimators like inverse probability weighting (IPW) and double/debiased machine learning (DML) frameworks. We extend recent…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-20 Sven Klaassen , Jan Rabenseifner , Jannis Kueck , Philipp Bach

Combining information from multiple samples is often needed in biomedical and economic studies, but the differences between these samples must be appropriately taken into account in the analysis of the combined data. We study estimation for…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-14 Heng Shu , Zhiqiang Tan

The ability to perform effective off-policy learning would revolutionize the process of building better interactive systems, such as search engines and recommendation systems for e-commerce, computational advertising and news. Recent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-06-27 Damien Lefortier , Adith Swaminathan , Xiaotao Gu , Thorsten Joachims , Maarten de Rijke

Offline evaluation plays a central role in benchmarking recommender systems when online testing is impractical or risky. However, it is susceptible to two key sources of bias: exposure bias, where users only interact with items they are…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-08-12 Bruno L. Pereira , Alan Said , Rodrygo L. T. Santos