Related papers: Distributional Regression with Tabular Foundation …

Leveraging the model's internal information as the self-reward signal in Reinforcement Learning (RL) has received extensive attention due to its label-free nature. While prior works have made significant progress in applying the Test-Time…

Modelling claim frequency and severity for non-life insurance pricing predominantly relies on generalised linear models, with gradient-boosted machines as the leading machine learning alternative. Tabular foundation models (TFMs) present a…

Deep tabular modelling increasingly relies on in-context learning where, during inference, a model receives a set of $(x,y)$ pairs as context and predicts labels for new inputs without weight updates. We challenge the prevailing view that…

What does it mean to say that, for example, the probability for rain tomorrow is between 20% and 30%? The theory for the evaluation of precise probabilistic forecasts is well-developed and is grounded in the key concepts of proper scoring…

Ranking algorithms as an essential component of retrieval systems have been constantly improved in previous studies, especially regarding relevance-based utilities. In recent years, more and more research attempts have been proposed…

Foundation models are an emerging research direction in tabular deep learning. Notably, TabPFNv2 recently claimed superior performance over traditional GBDT-based methods on small-scale datasets using an in-context learning paradigm, which…

In aligning large language models (LLMs), reward models have played an important role, but are standardly trained as discriminative models and rely only on labeled human preference data. In this paper, we explore methods that train reward…

Probabilistic regression models trained with maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), can sometimes overestimate variance to an unacceptable degree. This is mostly problematic in the multivariate domain. While univariate models often optimize…

In situations where forecasters are scored on the quality of their probabilistic predictions, it is standard to use `proper' scoring rules to perform such scoring. These rules are desirable because they give forecasters no incentive to lie…

Hollmann et al. (Nature 637 (2025) 319-326) recently introduced TabPFN, a transformer-based deep learning model for regression and classification on tabular data, which they claim "outperforms all previous methods on datasets with up to…

Tabular data is prevalent across diverse domains in machine learning. With the rapid progress of deep tabular prediction methods, especially pretrained (foundation) models, there is a growing need to evaluate these methods systematically…

Neural Posterior Estimation methods for simulation-based inference can be ill-suited for dealing with posterior distributions obtained by conditioning on multiple observations, as they tend to require a large number of simulator calls to…

Probabilistic prediction aims to compute predictive distributions rather than single point predictions. These distributions enable practitioners to quantify uncertainty, compute risk, and detect outliers. However, most probabilistic methods…

Decision trees built with data remain in widespread use for nonparametric prediction. Predicting probability distributions is preferred over point predictions when uncertainty plays a prominent role in analysis and decision-making. We study…

Performative prediction is a framework for learning models that influence the data they intend to predict. We focus on finding classifiers that are performatively stable, i.e. optimal for the data distribution they induce. Standard…

Tabular Foundation Models (TFMs) have recently shown strong in-context learning capabilities on structured data, achieving zero-shot performance comparable to traditional machine learning methods. We find that zero-shot TFMs already achieve…

The open-ended generation in LLMs usually requires multi-dimensional rubrics to adequately assess quality and guide the improvement of reinforcement learning. However, a critical dilemma inherent in this training paradigm is the imbalanced…

In binary classification tasks, accurate representation of probabilistic predictions is essential for various real-world applications such as predicting payment defaults or assessing medical risks. The model must then be well-calibrated to…

Recent advances in tabular in-context learning (ICL) show that a single pretrained model can adapt to new prediction tasks from a small set of labeled examples, avoiding per-task training and heavy tuning. However, many real-world tasks…

The first tabular foundation model, TabPFN, and its successor TabPFNv2 have impacted tabular AI substantially, with dozens of methods building on it and hundreds of applications across different use cases. This report introduces TabPFN-2.5,…