Related papers: Genuine Increases in Tropical Cyclone Intensities
Accurate tropical cyclones (TCs) tracking represents a critical challenge in the context of weather and climate science. Traditional tracking schemes mainly rely on subjective thresholds, which may introduce biases in their skills on the…
Improving statistical forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is limited by complex nonlinear interactions and difficulty in identifying relevant predictors. Conventional methods prioritize correlation or fit, often overlooking…
This study presents a comprehensive climatological benchmarking of tropical cyclones (TCs) generated by AI-based global weather prediction models. Using all TC events from the North Atlantic and Western Pacific basins between 2020 and 2025,…
Tornadoes have caused billions of dollars in damage and are one of the leading causes of weather-related deaths in the United States each year. Tornadoes are known to frequently form in the warm sector of extratropical cyclones (ETCs), yet…
Cloud radiative feedback impacts early tropical cyclone (TC) intensification, but limitations in existing diagnostic frameworks make them unsuitable for studying asymmetric or transient radiative heating. We propose a linear Variational…
El Ni\~no episodes are part of the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is the strongest driver of interannual climate variability, and can trigger extreme weather events and disasters in various parts of the globe. Previously we…
An Arctic cyclone, Ex-Typhoon Halong, produced strong winds and devastating flooding in southwestern Alaska during 11-12 October 2025. This study examines the evolution of Halong after its transition into an extratropical cyclone through…
We have simulated the evolution of tidal debris in the Galactic halo in order to guide our ongoing survey to determine the fraction of halo mass accreted via satellite infall. Contrary to naive expectations that the satellite debris will…
Solar flares and CMEs have a broad range of magnitudes. This review discusses the possibility of "extreme events," defined as those with magnitudes greater than have been seen in the existing historical record. For most quantitative…
Weather and climate extremes such as heatwaves are crucial climate hazards to people and ecosystems worldwide. In any region, climate change may alter their characteristics in complex ways so that rigorous and holistic quantification of the…
Critical phenomena near continuous phase transitions are typically observed on the scale of wavelengths of visible light[1]. Here we report similar phenomena for atmospheric precipitation on scales of tens of kilometers. Our observations…
Solar flares are occasionally responsible for severe Space Weather events, which can affect space-borne and ground-based infrastructures, endangering anthropic technological activities and even human health and safety. Thus, an essential…
In contrast to the wet gets wetter and dry gets drier paradigm, here, using observations and climate model simulations, we show that the mean rainfall over the semi-arid northwest parts of India and Pakistan has increased by 10 to 50…
We study collective attention paid towards hurricanes through the lens of $n$-grams on Twitter, a social media platform with global reach. Using hurricane name mentions as a proxy for awareness, we find that the exogenous temporal dynamics…
We examine how well the physical properties of clumps in turbulent molecular clouds can be determined by measurements of observed clump structures. We compare simulated observations of three-dimensional numerical models of isothermal,…
Major solar eruptions occasionally direct interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) to Earth and cause significant geomagnetic storms and low-latitude aurorae. While single extreme storms are of significant threats to the modern…
"Climate dice", describing the chance of unusually warm or cool seasons relative to climatology, have become progressively "loaded" in the past 30 years, coincident with rapid global warming. The distribution of seasonal mean temperature…
Tropical regions may experience periodic extreme precipitation and suffer from associated periodic deluges in a warmer climate. Recent studies conducted small-domain (around 100 km x 100 km) atmospheric model simulations and found that…
Forecasting geomagnetic storms is highly important for many space weather applications. In this study we review performance of the geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus during 2011--2016. The service was implemented in 2011 at…
Severity of warming predicted by climate models depends on their Transient Climate Response (TCR). Inter-model spread of TCR has persisted at ~100% of its mean for decades. Existing observational constraints of TCR are based on observed…