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A Bayesian nonparametric method of James, Lijoi \& Prunster (2009) used to predict future values of observations from normalized random measures with independent increments is modified to a class of models based on negative binomial…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-20 Robert C. Griffiths , Ross A. Maller , Soudabeh Shemehsavar

Motivated by Bayesian inference with highly informative data we analyze the performance of random walk-like Metropolis-Hastings algorithms for approximate sampling of increasingly concentrating target distributions. We focus on Gaussian…

Computation · Statistics 2022-02-25 Daniel Rudolf , Björn Sprungk

This article develops a general-purpose adaptive sampler that approximates the target density by a mixture of multivariate t densities. The adaptive sampler is based on reversible proposal distributions each of which has the mixture of…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-08-22 Minh-Ngoc Tran , Michael K. Pitt , Robert Kohn

We consider posterior sampling in the very common Bayesian hierarchical model in which observed data depends on high-dimensional latent variables that, in turn, depend on relatively few hyperparameters. When the full conditional over the…

Computation · Statistics 2016-10-24 Richard A. Norton , J. Andres Christen , Colin Fox

In this chapter, we address the challenge of exploring the posterior distributions of Bayesian inverse problems with computationally intensive forward models. We consider various multivariate proposal distributions, and compare them with…

Computation · Statistics 2024-05-02 Mikkel B. Lykkegaard , Colin Fox , Dave Higdon , C. Shane Reese , J. David Moulton

Global fits of physics models require efficient methods for exploring high-dimensional and/or multimodal posterior functions. We introduce a novel method for accelerating Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling by pairing a…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2023-09-06 N. T. Hunt-Smith , W. Melnitchouk , F. Ringer , N. Sato , A. W Thomas , M. J. White

In this paper we describe how MAP inference can be used to sample efficiently from Gibbs distributions. Specifically, we provide means for drawing either approximate or unbiased samples from Gibbs' distributions by introducing low…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-10-01 Tamir Hazan , Subhransu Maji , Tommi Jaakkola

This paper develops a Bayesian computational platform at the interface between posterior sampling and optimization in models whose marginal likelihoods are difficult to evaluate. Inspired by adversarial optimization, namely Generative…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-12-01 Tetsuya Kaji , Veronika Rockova

We develop a new method to sample from posterior distributions in hierarchical models without using Markov chain Monte Carlo. This method, which is a variant of importance sampling ideas, is generally applicable to high-dimensional models…

Computation · Statistics 2015-03-19 Michael Braun , Paul Damien

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) samples efficiently from high-dimensional posterior distributions with proposed parameter draws obtained by iterating on a discretized version of the Hamiltonian dynamics. The iterations make HMC…

Computation · Statistics 2019-05-03 Khue-Dung Dang , Matias Quiroz , Robert Kohn , Minh-Ngoc Tran , Mattias Villani

We revise the Bayesian inference steps required to analyse the cosmological large-scale structure. Here we make special emphasis in the complications which arise due to the non-Gaussian character of the galaxy and matter distribution. In…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-03 Francisco-Shu Kitaura

The Poisson distribution arises naturally when dealing with data involving counts, and it has found many applications in inverse problems and imaging. In this work, we develop an approximate Bayesian inference technique based on expectation…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-09-04 Chen Zhang , Simon Arridge , Bangti Jin

This paper considers properties of an optimization based sampler for targeting the posterior distribution when the likelihood is intractable and auxiliary statistics are used to summarize information in the data. Our reverse sampler…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-12-02 Jean-Jacques Forneron , Serena Ng

We propose a new method, called MonteCarlo Posterior Fit, to boost the MonteCarlo sampling of likelihood (posterior) functions. The idea is to approximate the posterior function by an analytical multidimensional non-Gaussian fit. The many…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2020-08-19 Luca Amendola , Adrià Gómez-Valent

Importance sampling (IS) is a powerful Monte Carlo methodology for the approximation of intractable integrals, very often involving a target probability density function. The performance of IS heavily depends on the appropriate selection of…

Computation · Statistics 2023-06-22 Víctor Elvira , Emilie Chouzenoux , Ömer Deniz Akyildiz , Luca Martino

We introduce a general framework that constructs estimators with reduced variance for random walk Metropolis and Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithms. The resulting estimators require negligible computational cost and are derived in a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-07 Angelos Alexopoulos , Petros Dellaportas , Michalis K. Titsias

We consider Bayesian linear regression with sparsity-inducing prior and design efficient sampling algorithms leveraging posterior contraction properties. A quasi-likelihood with Gaussian spike-and-slab (that is favorable both statistically…

Computation · Statistics 2023-07-13 Qijia Jiang

The particle-based, rapid incremental smoother (PARIS) is a sequential Monte Carlo technique allowing for efficient online approximation of expectations of additive functionals under Feynman--Kac path distributions. Under weak assumptions,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-22 Gabriel Cardoso , Eric Moulines , Jimmy Olsson

We propose an adaptive Metropolis-Hastings algorithm in which sampled data are used to update the proposal distribution. We use the samples found by the algorithm at a particular step to form the information-theoretically optimal mean-field…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2007-05-23 David H. Wolpert , Chiu Fan Lee

Many statistical models can be simulated forwards but have intractable likelihoods. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are used to infer properties of these models from data. Traditionally these methods approximate the posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-04-03 George Papamakarios , Iain Murray