Related papers: Estimating changes in extreme quantiles over time,…
We assess evidence for changes in tail characteristics of wind, solar irradiance and temperature variables output from CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) due to climate forcing. We estimate global and climate zone annual maximum and annual…
Changes in extreme weather may produce some of the largest societal impacts of anthropogenic climate change. However, it is intrinsically difficult to estimate changes in extreme events from the short observational record. In this work we…
We present a new approach to modeling the future development of extreme temperatures globally and on a long time-scale by using non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions in combination with logistic functions. This approach is…
Extreme temperature events have traditionally been detected assuming a unimodal distribution of temperature data. We found that surface temperature data can be described more accurately with a multimodal rather than a unimodal distribution.…
A baroclinic model for the atmospheric jet at middle-latitudes is used as a stochastic generator of time series of the total energy of the system. Statistical inference of extreme values is applied to yearly maxima sequences of the time…
Climate change has become a significant global concern due to its capacity to cause substantial disruption to daily life by increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Given the rising trend of human interventions in…
There is substantial empirical and climatological evidence that precipitation extremes have become more extreme during the twentieth century, and that this trend is likely to continue as global warming becomes more intense. However,…
This paper introduces a method for spatial interpolation of extreme values, and in particular targets the case in which conventional data, resulting from a measurement for example, are available at only a few locations. To overcome this the…
Motivated by the analysis of extreme rainfall data, we introduce a general Bayesian hierarchical model for estimating the probability distribution of extreme values of intermittent random sequences, a common problem in geophysical and…
Estimating climate effects on future ocean storm severity is plagued by large uncertainties, yet for safe design and operation of offshore structures, best possible estimates of climate effects are required given available data. We explore…
A new method is proposed for modelling the yearly maxima of sub-daily precipitation, with the aim of producing spatial maps of return level estimates. Yearly precipitation maxima are modelled using a Bayesian hierarchical model with a…
In this study, we begin a comprehensive characterisation of temperature extremes in Ireland for the period 1981-2010. We produce return levels of anomalies of daily maximum temperature extremes for an area over Ireland, for the 30-year…
The generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is commonly employed to help estimate the likelihood of extreme events in many geophysical and other application areas. The recently proposed blended generalized extreme value (bGEV)…
In this study we consider the problem of detecting and quantifying changes in the distribution of the annual maximum daily maximum temperature (TXx) in a large gridded data set of European daily temperature during the years 1950-2018.…
Weather extremes produce major impacts on society and ecosystems and are likely to change in likelihood and magnitude with climate change. However, very low probability events are hard to characterize statistically using observations or…
Projections of future climate change rely heavily on climate models, and combining climate models through a multi-model ensemble is both more accurate than a single climate model and valuable for uncertainty quantification. However,…
Modelling block maxima using the generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution is a classical and widely used method for studying univariate extremes. It allows for theoretically motivated estimation of return levels, including extrapolation…
In recent environmental studies extreme events have a great impact. The yearly and monthly maxima of environment related indices can be analysed by the tools of extreme value theory. For instance, the monthly maxima of the fire weather…
In extreme values theory, for a sufficiently large block size, the maxima distribution is approximated by the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. The GEV distribution is a family of continuous probability distributions, which has…
Climate change is likely to pose enormous challenges for agriculture, water resources, infrastructure, and livelihood of millions of people living in South Asia. Here, we develop daily bias-corrected data of precipitation, maximum and…