Related papers: Convergences for a Virus-like Evolving Population …
Modelling and forecasting the occurrence of extreme events is especially difficult when the event process is nonstationary, with changes in both the rate at which extremes occur and the magnitude of the extremes when they occur. We approach…
We generalise the construction of multivariate Hawkes processes to a possibly infinite network of counting processes on a directed graph $\mathbb G$. The process is constructed as the solution to a system of Poisson driven stochastic…
The Hawkes process and its extensions effectively model self-excitatory phenomena including earthquakes, viral pandemics, financial transactions, neural spike trains and the spread of memes through social networks. The usefulness of these…
We show the variational convergence of an irreversible Markov jump process describing a finite stochastic particle system to the solution of a countable infinite system of deterministic time-inhomogeneous quadratic differential equations…
We consider continuous time Markovian processes where populations of individual agents interact stochastically according to kinetic rules. Despite the increasing prominence of such models in fields ranging from biology to smart cities,…
The Hawkes self-excited point process provides an efficient representation of the bursty intermittent dynamics of many physical, biological, geological and economic systems. By expressing the probability for the next event per unit time…
Dynamic heterogeneity has often been modeled by assuming that a single-particle observable, fluctuating at a molecular scale, is influenced by its coupling to environmental variables fluctuating on a second, perhaps slower, time scale.…
Changes in human behavior are increasingly recognized as a major determinant of epidemic dynamics. Although collective activity can be modified through imposed measures to control epidemic progression, spontaneous changes can also arise as…
In this paper we study the iterated birth process of which we examine the first-passage time distributions and the hitting probabilities. Furthermore, linear birth processes, linear and sublinear death processes at Poisson times are…
The Hawkes process is a simple point process that has long memory, clustering effect, self-exciting property and is in general non-Markovian. The future evolution of a self-exciting point process is influenced by the timing of the past…
The paper deals with a certain class of random evolutions. We develop a construction that yields an invariant measure for a continuous-time Markov process with random transitions. The approach is based on a particular way of constructing…
In this paper, we consider time-inhomogeneous branching processes and time-inhomogeneous birth-and-death processes, in which the offspring distribution and birth and death rates (respectively) vary in time. A classical result of branching…
We survey results on the description of stochastically evolving genealogies of populations and marked genealogies of multitype populations or spatial populations via tree-valued Markov processes on (marked) ultrametric measure spaces. In…
We consider continuous space-time decay-surge population models which are semi- stochastic processes for which deterministically declining populations, bound to fade away, are rein- vigorated at random times by bursts or surges of random…
In the last decade Hawkes processes have received much attention as models for functional connectivity in neural spiking networks and other dynamical systems with a cascade behavior. In this paper we establish a renewal approach for…
The Hawkes process is a model for counting the number of arrivals to a system which exhibits the self-exciting property - that one arrival creates a heightened chance of further arrivals in the near future. The model, and its…
In this article, a new mathematical model of human population growth as an autonomous non-Markov queuing system with an unlimited number of servers and two types of applications is proposed. The research of this system was carried out a…
Consider a continuous-state branching population constructed as a flow of nested subordinators. Inverting the subordinators and reversing time give rise to a flow of coalescing Markov processes (with negative jumps) which correspond to the…
The theory of ``Markov-up'' processes is being developed. This is a new class of stochastic processes with ``partial'' markovian features; it could also be called ``one-sided Markov''. Such a behavior may be found in the real world and in…
We introduce a general class of branching Markov processes for the modelling of a parasite infection in a cell population. Each cell contains a quantity of parasites which evolves as a diffusion with positive jumps. The growth rate,…