Related papers: Only Segmented Heavy Tails Can Produce a Light-Tai…

Consider a random walk $S=(S_n:n\geq 0)$ that is ``perturbed'' by a stationary sequence $(\xi_n:n\geq 0)$ to produce the process $(S_n+\xi_n:n\geq0)$. This paper is concerned with computing the distribution of the all-time maximum…

We study the parabolic Anderson problem, that is, the heat equation $\partial_tu=\Delta u+\xi u$ on $(0,\infty)\times{\mathbb{Z}}^d$ with independent identically distributed random potential $\{\xi(z):z\in{\mathbb{Z}}^d\}$ and localized…

In this paper, we establish the necessary and sufficient criterion for the contact process on Galton-Watson trees (resp. random graphs) to exhibit the phase of extinction (resp. short survival). We prove that the survival threshold…

We propose a variational tail bound for norms of random vectors under moment assumptions on their one-dimensional marginals. A simplified version of the bound that parametrizes the ``aggregating distribution'' using a certain pushforward of…

We study the lower tail large deviation problem for subgraph counts in a random graph. Let $X_H$ denote the number of copies of $H$ in an Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi random graph $\mathcal{G}(n,p)$. We are interested in estimating the lower tail…

For a branching random walk that drifts to infinity, consider its Malthusian martingale, i.e.~the additive martingale with parameter $\theta$ being the smallest root of the characteristic equation. When particles are killed below the…

Heavy tailed phenomena are naturally analyzed by extreme value statistics. A crucial step in such an analysis is the estimation of the extreme value index, which describes the tail heaviness of the underlying probability distribution. We…

A new estimator is proposed for estimating the tail exponent of a heavy-tailed distribution. This estimator, referred to as the layered Hill estimator, is a generalization of the traditional Hill estimator, building upon a layered structure…

In this paper, a novel approach to the problem of estimating the heavy-tail exponent alpha>0 of a distribution is proposed. It is based on the fact that block-maxima of size m of the independent and identically distributed data scale at a…

We consider moderately trimmed sums of non-negative i.i.d. random variables. We show that for every distribution function there exists a proper moderate trimming such that for the trimmed sum a non-trivial strong law of large numbers holds.…

We give necessary and sufficient conditions for two sub-vectors of a random vector with a multivariate extreme value distribution, corresponding to the limit distribution of the maximum of a multidimensional stationary sequence with…

We propose and analyze a new estimator of the covariance matrix that admits strong theoretical guarantees under weak assumptions on the underlying distribution, such as existence of moments of only low order. While estimation of covariance…

A random vector ${\bf X}$ is weakly stable iff for all $a,b \in \mathbb{R}$ there exists a random variable $\Theta$ such that $a{\bf X} + b {\bf X}' \stackrel{d}{=} {\bf X} \Theta$, where $X'$ is an independent copy of $X$ and $\Theta$ is…

We consider a branching random walk in the non-boundary case where the additive martingale $W_n$ converges a.s. and in mean to some non-degenerate limit $W_\infty$. We first establish the joint tail distribution of $W_\infty$ and the global…

A common bottleneck in evaluating extremal performance measures is that, due to their very nature, tail data are often very limited. The conventional approach selects the best probability distribution from tail data using parametric…

We introduce a trimmed version of the Hill estimator for the index of a heavy-tailed distribution, which is robust to perturbations in the extreme order statistics. In the ideal Pareto setting, the estimator is essentially finite-sample…

We develop an efficient simulation algorithm for computing the tail probabilities of the infinite series $S = \sum_{n \geq 1} a_n X_n$ when random variables $X_n$ are heavy-tailed. As $S$ is the sum of infinitely many random variables, any…

This paper explores a conditional Gibbs theorem for a random walkinduced by i.i.d. (X_{1},..,X_{n}) conditioned on an extreme deviation of its sum (S_{1}^{n}=na_{n}) or (S_{1}^{n}>na_{n}) where a_{n}\rightarrow\infty. It is proved that when…

We construct an example of a continuous centered random process with light tails of finite-dimensional distribution but with (relatively) heavy tail of maximum distribution. The apparatus for tails comparison are embedding results for…

We consider a modulated process S which, conditional on a background process X, has independent increments. Assuming that S drifts to -infinity and that its increments (jumps) are heavy-tailed (in a sense made precise in the paper), we…