English
Related papers

Related papers: Simultaneously accounting for winner's curse and s…

200 papers

We present a weighted estimator of the covariance and correlation in bipartite complex systems with a double layer of heterogeneity. The advantage provided by the weighted estimators lies in the fact that the unweighted sample covariance…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2016-12-22 Elena Puccio , Jyrki Piilo , Michele Tumminello

Determining how close a winner of an election is to becoming a loser, or distinguishing between different possible winners of an election, are major problems in computational social choice. We tackle these problems for so-called weighted…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-08-14 Michelle Döring , Jannik Peters

Clinical study populations often differ meaningfully from the broader populations to which results are intended to generalize. Weighting methods such as inverse probability of sampling weights (IPSW) reweight study participants to resemble…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-02 William Stewart , Carly L. Brantner , Elizabeth A. Stuart , Laine Thomas

We propose a restricted win probability estimand for comparing treatments in a randomized trial with a time-to-event outcome. We also propose Bayesian estimators for this summary measure as well as the unrestricted win probability. Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-06 Michelle Leeberg , Xianghua Luo , Thomas A. Murray

Mendelian randomization (MR) is widely used to uncover causal relationships in the presence of unmeasured confounders. However, most existing MR methods presuppose linear causality, risking bias when the true relationships are nonlinear,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-05 Xinpei Wang , Tao Huang , Jinzhu Jia

The randomized play-the-winner (RPW) model is a generalized P\'olya Urn process with broad applications ranging from clinical trials to molecular evolution. We derive an exact expression for the variance of the RPW model by transforming the…

Applications · Statistics 2024-01-02 Ivan Specht , Michael Mitzenmacher

Two-phase designs measure variables of interest on a subcohort where the outcome and covariates are readily available or cheap to collect on all individuals in the cohort. Given limited resource availability, it is of interest to find an…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-11 Tong Chen , Thomas Lumley

Malliavin weight sampling (MWS) is a stochastic calculus technique for computing the derivatives of averaged system properties with respect to parameters in stochastic simulations, without perturbing the system's dynamics. It applies to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2013-12-31 Patrick B. Warren , Rosalind J. Allen

We develop a Coordinate Ascent Variational Inference (CAVI) algorithm for Bayesian Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) regression with linear weight parameterizations. The model separates impact coeffcients from weighting function parameters…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Luigi Simeone

Observational genome-wide association studies are now widely used for causal inference in genetic epidemiology. To maintain privacy, such data is often only publicly available as summary statistics, and often studies for the endogenous…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-26 Shimeng Huang , Niklas Pfister , Jack Bowden

When testing for superiority in a parallel-group setting with a continuous outcome, adjusting for covariates (e.g., baseline measurements) is usually recommended, in order to reduce bias and increase power. For this purpose, the analysis of…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-28 Georg Zimmermann , Meinhard Kieser , Arne Bathke

Reversible Instance Normalization (RevIN) is a key technique enabling simple linear models to achieve state-of-the-art performance in time series forecasting. While replacing its non-robust statistics with robust counterparts (termed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-07 Fanzhe Fu , Yang Yang

A key design constraint when implementing Monte Carlo and variational inference algorithms is that it must be possible to cheaply and exactly evaluate the marginal densities of proposal distributions and variational families. This takes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-22 Alexander K. Lew , Marco Cusumano-Towner , Vikash K. Mansinghka

In randomized trials, repeated measures of the outcome are routinely collected. The mixed model for repeated measures (MMRM) leverages the information from these repeated outcome measures, and is often used for the primary analysis to…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-20 Bingkai Wang , Yu Du

Marginal structural models have been widely used in causal inference to estimate mean outcomes under either a static or a prespecified set of treatment decision rules. This approach requires imposing a working model for the mean outcome…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-27 Cuong Pham , Benjamin R. Baer , Ashkan Ertefaie

Mendelian randomization (MR) is a powerful approach to examine the causal relationships between health risk factors and outcomes from observational studies. Due to the proliferation of genome-wide association studies (GWASs) and abundant…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-02 Qing Cheng , Baoluo Sun , Yingcun Xia , Jin Liu

Conducting genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in copy number variation (CNV) level is a field where few people involves and little statistical progresses have been achieved, traditional methods suffer from many problems such as batch…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-17 Han Wang , Changhu Wang , Linjie Wu , Ruibin Xi

Originating from a system theory and an input/output point of view, I introduce a new class of generalized distributions. A parametric nonlinear transformation converts a random variable $X$ into a so-called Lambert $W$ random variable $Y$,…

Applications · Statistics 2015-03-13 Georg M. Goerg

In observational research treatment effects, the average treatment effect (ATE) estimator may be biased if a confounding variable is misclassified. We discuss the impact of classification error in a dichotomous confounding variable in…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-12-13 Linda Nab , Rolf H. H. Groenwold , Maarten van Smeden , Ruth H. Keogh

The widespread adoption of randomized controlled trials (A/B Tests) for decision-making has introduced a pervasive "Winner's Curse": experiments selected for launch often exhibit upwardly biased effect estimates and invalid confidence…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-16 Richard Mudd , Abbas Zaidi , Rina Friedberg , Ilya Gorbachev , Anchal Choubey , Houssam Nassif