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This letter studies the problem of online multi-step-ahead prediction for unknown linear stochastic systems. Using conditional distribution theory, we derive an optimal parameterization of the prediction policy as a linear function of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Jiachen Qian , Yang Zheng

In this paper, we propose a learning approach to analyze dynamic systems with asymmetric information structure. Instead of adopting a game theoretic setting, we investigate an online quadratic optimization problem driven by system noises…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-11-05 Cheng Tan , Wing Shing Wong

We study online prediction for marginally stable, partially observed linear dynamical systems under nonstochastic disturbances. Our objective is to minimize the cumulative squared prediction loss and compete with the best-in-hindsight…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-07 Chih-Fan Pai , Yang Zheng

We present an algorithm guaranteeing dynamic regret bounds for online omniprediction with long term constraints. The goal in this recently introduced problem is for a learner to generate a sequence of predictions which are broadcast to a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-09 Yahav Bechavod , Jiuyao Lu , Aaron Roth

This paper presents early work aiming at the development of a new framework for the design and analysis of algorithms for online learning based prediction and control. Firstly, we consider the task of predicting values of a function or time…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-03-26 Jan-P. Calliess

This work focuses on the setting of dynamic regret in the context of online learning with full information. In particular, we analyze regret bounds with respect to the temporal variability of the loss functions. By assuming that the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-16 Nicolò Campolongo , Francesco Orabona

We study the problem of online learning and online regret minimization when samples are drawn from a general unknown non-stationary process. We introduce the concept of a dynamic changing process with cost $K$, where the conditional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-14 Changlong Wu , Ananth Grama , Wojciech Szpankowski

Recursive least-squares algorithms often use forgetting factors as a heuristic to adapt to non-stationary data streams. The first contribution of this paper rigorously characterizes the effect of forgetting factors for a class of online…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-22 Jianjun Yuan , Andrew Lamperski

In the setting of online learning, Implicit algorithms turn out to be highly successful from a practical standpoint. However, the tightest regret analyses only show marginal improvements over Online Mirror Descent. In this work, we shed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-10 Nicolò Campolongo , Francesco Orabona

The regret bound of dynamic online learning algorithms is often expressed in terms of the variation in the function sequence ($V_T$) and/or the path-length of the minimizer sequence after $T$ rounds. For strongly convex and smooth…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-17 Ting-Jui Chang , Shahin Shahrampour

We introduce an online convex optimization algorithm which utilizes projected subgradient descent with optimal adaptive learning rates. Our method provides second-order minimax-optimal dynamic regret guarantee (i.e. dependent on the sum of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-09-14 Hakan Gokcesu , Suleyman S. Kozat

We consider the problem of online control of systems with time-varying linear dynamics. This is a general formulation that is motivated by the use of local linearization in control of nonlinear dynamical systems. To state meaningful…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-15 Paula Gradu , Elad Hazan , Edgar Minasyan

The design of effective online caching policies is an increasingly important problem for content distribution networks, online social networks and edge computing services, among other areas. This paper proposes a new algorithmic toolbox for…

Networking and Internet Architecture · Computer Science 2022-10-21 Naram Mhaisen , George Iosifidis , Douglas Leith

We study optimal regret bounds for control in linear dynamical systems under adversarially changing strongly convex cost functions, given the knowledge of transition dynamics. This includes several well studied and fundamental frameworks…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-12 Naman Agarwal , Elad Hazan , Karan Singh

Projection-free online learning has drawn increasing interest due to its efficiency in solving high-dimensional problems with complicated constraints. However, most existing projection-free online methods focus on minimizing the static…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-22 Yibo Wang , Wenhao Yang , Wei Jiang , Shiyin Lu , Bing Wang , Haihong Tang , Yuanyu Wan , Lijun Zhang

Non-stationary online learning has drawn much attention in recent years. In particular, dynamic regret and adaptive regret are proposed as two principled performance measures for online convex optimization in non-stationary environments. To…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-10 Peng Zhao , Yan-Feng Xie , Lijun Zhang , Zhi-Hua Zhou

Policy design in non-stationary Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) is inherently challenging due to the complexities introduced by time-varying system transition and reward, which make it difficult for learners to determine the optimal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-17 Ziyi Zhang , Yorie Nakahira , Guannan Qu

Regret minimization is treated as the golden rule in the traditional study of online learning. However, regret minimization algorithms tend to converge to the static optimum, thus being suboptimal for changing environments. To address this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-07 Lijun Zhang , Shiyin Lu , Tianbao Yang

We consider the problem of online prediction for an unknown, non-explosive linear stochastic system. With a known system model, the optimal predictor is the celebrated Kalman filter. In the case of unknown systems, existing approaches based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-15 Jiachen Qian , Yang Zheng

This work studies the problem of sequential control in an unknown, nonlinear dynamical system, where we model the underlying system dynamics as an unknown function in a known Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space. This framework yields a general…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-23 Sham Kakade , Akshay Krishnamurthy , Kendall Lowrey , Motoya Ohnishi , Wen Sun