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We suggest two nonparametric approaches, based on kernel methods and orthogonal series to estimating regression functions in the presence of instrumental variables. For the first time in this class of problems, we derive optimal convergence…
We investigate the performance and sampling variability of estimated forecast combinations, with particular attention given to the combination of forecast distributions. Unknown parameters in the forecast combination are optimized according…
We propose a model selection approach for covariance estimation of a multi-dimensional stochastic process. Under very general assumptions, observing i.i.d replications of the process at fixed observation points, we construct an estimator of…
Fractional imputation (FI) is a relatively new method of imputation for handling item nonresponse in survey sampling. In FI, several imputed values with their fractional weights are created for each missing item. Each fractional weight…
The linear regression models are widely used statistical techniques in numerous practical applications. The standard regression model requires several assumptions about the regres- sors and the error term. The regression parameters are…
In a linear regression model with random design, we consider a family of candidate models from which we want to select a `good' model for prediction out-of-sample. We fit the models using block shrinkage estimators, and we focus on the…
Accurate prediction of user consumption is a key part not only in understanding consumer flexibility and behavior patterns, but in the design of robust and efficient energy saving programs as well. Existing prediction methods usually have…
With nonignorable nonresponse, an effective method to construct valid estimators of population parameters is to use a covariate vector called instrument that can be excluded from the nonresponse propensity but are still useful covariate…
The learning curve expresses the error rate of a predictive modeling procedure as a function of the sample size of the training dataset. It typically is a decreasing, convex function with a positive limiting value. An estimate of the…
In a regression model, prediction is typically performed after model selection. The large variability in the model selection makes the prediction unstable. Thus, it is essential to reduce the variability in model selection and improve…
When training predictive models on data with missing entries, the most widely used and versatile approach is a pipeline technique where we first impute missing entries and then compute predictions. In this paper, we view prediction with…
Researchers now routinely use AI or other machine learning methods to estimate latent variables of economic interest, then plug-in the estimates as covariates in a regression. We show both theoretically and empirically that naively treating…
Instrumental variables regression is a tool that is commonly used in the analysis of observational data. The instrumental variables are used to make causal inference about the effect of a certain exposure in the presence of unmeasured…
Learning models that can handle distribution shifts is a key challenge in domain generalization. Invariance learning, an approach that focuses on identifying features invariant across environments, improves model generalization by capturing…
Survey data typically have missing values due to unit and item nonresponse. Sometimes, survey organizations know the marginal distributions of certain categorical variables in the survey. As shown in previous work, survey organizations can…
Reweighting a distribution to minimize a distance to a target distribution is a powerful and flexible strategy for estimating a wide range of causal effects, but can be challenging in practice because optimal weights typically depend on…
For the last two decades, high-dimensional data and methods have proliferated throughout the literature. Yet, the classical technique of linear regression has not lost its usefulness in applications. In fact, many high-dimensional…
The increasing popularity of regression discontinuity methods for causal inference in observational studies has led to a proliferation of different estimating strategies, most of which involve first fitting non-parametric regression models…
We examine the linear regression problem in a challenging high-dimensional setting with correlated predictors where the vector of coefficients can vary from sparse to dense. In this setting, we propose a combination of probabilistic…
Imputing missing potential outcomes using an estimated regression function is a natural idea for estimating causal effects. In the literature, estimators that combine imputation and regression adjustments are believed to be comparable to…