Related papers: Proximal Learning for Trials With External Control…
The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) has developed the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) for making national estimates and short-term projections of HIV prevalence based on observed prevalence trends at antenatal…
Assessment of circulating CD4 count change over time in HIV-infected subjects on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is a central component of disease monitoring. The increasing number of HIV-infected subjects starting therapy and the limited…
The development of potent drugs for the control of viraemia in people living with HIV means that infected people may live a normal, healthy life and offers the prospect of eliminating HIV transmission in the short term and HIV infection in…
There are limited options to estimate the treatment effects of variables which are continuous and measured at multiple time points, particularly if the true dose-response curve should be estimated as closely as possible. However, these…
Instrumental variables (IV) are a useful tool for estimating causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. IV methods are well developed for uncensored outcomes, particularly for structural linear equation models, where simple…
Naomi is a spatial evidence synthesis model used to produce district-level HIV epidemic indicators in sub-Saharan Africa. Multiple outcomes of policy interest, including HIV prevalence, HIV incidence, and antiretroviral therapy treatment…
Hybrid controlled trials (HCTs), which augment randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with external controls (ECs), are increasingly receiving attention as a way to address limited power, slow accrual, and ethical concerns in clinical…
Causal inference methods can be applied to estimate the effect of a point exposure or treatment on an outcome of interest using data from observational studies. For example, in the Women's Interagency HIV Study, it is of interest to…
Bayesian predictive probabilities are commonly used for interim monitoring of clinical trials through efficacy and futility stopping rules. Despite their usefulness, calculation of predictive probabilities, particularly in pre-experiment…
Augmenting the control arm in clinical trials with external data can improve statistical power for demonstrating treatment effects. In many time-to-event outcome trials, participants are subject to truncation by death. Direct application of…
Key populations at high risk of HIV infection are critical for understanding and monitoring HIV epidemics, but global estimation is hampered by sparse, uneven data. We analyze data from 199 countries for female sex workers (FSW), men who…
Knowledge of the time at which an HIV-infected individual seroconverts, when the immune system starts responding to HIV infection, plays a vital role in the design and implementation of interventions to reduce the impact of the HIV…
Many interventions are both beneficial to initiate and harmful to stop. Traditionally, to determine whether to deploy that intervention in a time-limited way depends on if, on average, the increase in the benefits of starting it outweigh…
Though platform trials have been touted for their flexibility and streamlined use of trial resources, their statistical efficiency is not well understood. We fill this gap by establishing their greater efficiency for comparing the relative…
Due to the heterogeneity of the randomized controlled trial (RCT) and external target populations, the estimated treatment effect from the RCT is not directly applicable to the target population. For example, the patient characteristics of…
A simple deterministic model is proposed to represent the basic aspects concerning the effects of different antiretroviral treatment schedules on HIV incidence and prevalence of affected populations. The model mimics current treatment…
Controlling an epidemiological model is often performed using optimal control theory techniques for which the solution depends on the equations of the control system, objective functional and possible state and/or control constraints. In…
Respondent-driven sampling is a form of link-tracing network sampling, which is widely used to study hard-to-reach populations, often to estimate population proportions. Previous treatments of this process have used a with-replacement…
Negative controls are increasingly used to evaluate the presence of potential unmeasured confounding in observational studies. Beyond the use of negative controls to detect the presence of residual confounding, proximal causal inference…
Observational studies can play a useful role in assessing the comparative effectiveness of competing treatments. In a clinical trial the randomization of participants to treatment and control groups generally results in well-balanced groups…