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The potential for complex systems to exhibit tipping points in which an equilibrium state undergoes a sudden and often irreversible shift is well established, but prediction of these events using standard forecast modeling techniques is…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-12-07 Daniel Dylewsky , Timothy M. Lenton , Marten Scheffer , Thomas M. Bury , Christopher G. Fletcher , Madhur Anand , Chris T. Bauch

Nonlinear parametric systems have been widely used in modeling nonlinear dynamics in science and engineering. Bifurcation analysis of these nonlinear systems on the parameter space are usually used to study the solution structure such as…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-01-26 Wenrui Hao , Chunyue Zheng

Many natural and man-made systems are prone to critical transitions -- abrupt and potentially devastating changes in dynamics. Deep learning classifiers can provide an early warning signal (EWS) for critical transitions by learning generic…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2024-02-12 Thomas M. Bury , Daniel Dylewsky , Chris T. Bauch , Madhur Anand , Leon Glass , Alvin Shrier , Gil Bub

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are becoming more prevalent in important safety-critical applications, where reliability in the prediction is paramount. Despite their exceptional prediction capabilities, current DNNs do not have an implicit…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-14 David Betancourt , Rafi Muhanna

In this topical review, we present a brief overview of the different methods and measures to detect the occurrence of critical transitions in complex systems. We start by introducing the mechanisms that trigger critical transitions, and how…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-07-05 Sandip V. George , Sneha Kachhara , G. Ambika

Detecting extreme events in large datasets is a major challenge in climate science research. Current algorithms for extreme event detection are build upon human expertise in defining events based on subjective thresholds of relevant…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2016-05-05 Yunjie Liu , Evan Racah , Prabhat , Joaquin Correa , Amir Khosrowshahi , David Lavers , Kenneth Kunkel , Michael Wehner , William Collins

We propose a numerical method for discovering unknown parameterized dynamical systems by using observational data of the state variables. Our method is built upon and extends the recent work of discovering unknown dynamical systems, in…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-03-11 Tong Qin , Zhen Chen , John Jakeman , Dongbin Xiu

Nonlinear dynamical systems exposed to changing forcing can exhibit catastrophic transitions between alternative and often markedly different states. The phenomenon of critical slowing down (CSD) can be used to anticipate such transitions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-13 Yu Huang , Sebastian Bathiany , Peter Ashwin , Niklas Boers

In this study, we explore the application of Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) to the analysis of bifurcation phenomena in ecological migration models. By integrating the fundamental principles of diffusion-advection-reaction…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2025-11-25 Lujie Yin , Xing Lv

The accurate modelling of structural dynamics is crucial across numerous engineering applications, such as Structural Health Monitoring (SHM), seismic analysis, and vibration control. Often, these models originate from physics-based…

Computational Physics · Physics 2024-10-31 Marcus Haywood-Alexander , Giacomo Arcieri , Antonios Kamariotis , Eleni Chatzi

Many real-world time series, such as in health, have changepoints where the system's structure or parameters change. Since changepoints can indicate critical events such as onset of illness, it is highly important to detect them. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-17 Zahra Ebrahimzadeh , Min Zheng , Selcuk Karakas , Samantha Kleinberg

Data-driven discovery of governing equations in computational science has emerged as a new paradigm for obtaining accurate physical models and as a possible alternative to theoretical derivations. The recently developed physics-informed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-18 Zongren Zou , Xuhui Meng , George Em Karniadakis

In a Nature article, Scheffer et al. presented a novel data-driven framework to predict critical transitions in complex systems. These transitions, which may stem from failures, degradation, or adversarial actions, have been attributed to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-08-09 Mohammad Pirani , Saber Jafarpour

This paper introduces a novel approach to solve inverse problems by leveraging deep learning techniques. The objective is to infer unknown parameters that govern a physical system based on observed data. We focus on scenarios where the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-02 Sidney Besnard , Frédéric Jurie , Jalal M. Fadili

Tipping points occur in many real-world systems, at which the system shifts suddenly from one state to another. The ability to predict the occurrence of tipping points from time series data remains an outstanding challenge and a major…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-10 Chengzuo Zhuge , Jiawei Li , Wei Chen

In recent years, machine learning has been adopted to complex networks, but most existing works concern about the structural properties. To use machine learning to detect phase transitions and accurately identify the critical transition…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-01-08 Qi Ni , Ming Tang , Ying Liu , Ying-Cheng Lai

Financial markets of emerging economies are vulnerable to extreme and cascading information spillovers, surges, sudden stops and reversals. With this in mind, we develop a new online early warning system (EWS) to detect what is referred to…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-05-21 Artem Kraevskiy , Artem Prokhorov , Evgeniy Sokolovskiy

Dryland vegetation ecosystems are known to be susceptible to critical transitions between alternative stable states when subjected to external forcing. Such transitions are often discussed through the framework of bifurcation theory, but…

Computational Physics · Physics 2025-05-16 Daniel Dylewsky , Sonia Kéfi , Madhur Anand , Chris T. Bauch

System identification (SysID) is critical for modeling dynamical systems from experimental data, yet traditional approaches often fail to capture nonlinear behaviors. While deep learning offers powerful tools for modeling such dynamics,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Mehmet Ali Ferah , Tufan Kumbasar

Many real world systems are at risk of undergoing critical transitions, leading to sudden qualitative and sometimes irreversible regime shifts. The development of early warning signals is recognized as a major challenge. Recent progress…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2017-02-28 Christian Kuehn , Gerd Zschaler , Thilo Gross
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