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Improving health in the most disadvantaged populations requires reliable estimates of health and demographic indicators to inform policy and interventions. Low- and middle-income countries with the largest burden of disease and disability…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-21 Austin E Schumacher , Jon Wakefield

Accurate fertility estimates at fine spatial resolution are essential for localized public health planning, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). While national-level indicators such as age-specific fertility rates…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-08 Yunhan Wu , Jon Wakefield

Disaggregation modelling, or downscaling, has become an important discipline in epidemiology. Surveillance data, aggregated over large regions, is becoming more common, leading to an increasing demand for modelling frameworks that can deal…

Computation · Statistics 2020-01-15 Anita K. Nandi , Tim C. D. Lucas , Rohan Arambepola , Peter Gething , Daniel J. Weiss

The need for rigorous and timely health and demographic summaries has provided the impetus for an explosion in geographic studies, with a common approach being the production of pixel-level maps, particularly in low and middle income…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-16 John Paige , Geir-Arne Fuglstad , Andrea Riebler , Jon Wakefield

Disaggregation regression has become an important tool in spatial disease mapping for making fine-scale predictions of disease risk from aggregated response data. By including high resolution covariate information and modelling the data…

Applications · Statistics 2020-05-08 Rohan Arambepola , Tim C D Lucas , Anita K Nandi , Peter W Gething , Ewan Cameron

Accurate estimates of subnational health and demographic indicators are critical for informing health policy decisions. Many countries collect relevant data using complex household surveys, but when data are limited, direct survey weighted…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-07 Peter A. Gao , Jon Wakefield

Spatial aggregation with respect to a population distribution involves estimating aggregate quantities for a population based on an observation of individuals in a subpopulation. In this context, a geostatistical workflow must account for…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-15 John Paige , Geir-Arne Fuglstad , Andrea Riebler , Jon Wakefield

When mapping subnational health and demographic indicators, direct weighted estimators of small area means based on household survey data can be unreliable when data are limited. If survey microdata are available, unit level models can…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-22 Peter A. Gao , Jon Wakefield

In small area estimation, it is sometimes necessary to use model-based methods to produce estimates in areas with little or no data. In official statistics, we often require that some aggregate of small area estimates agree with a national…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-31 Taylor Okonek , Jon Wakefield

Fine resolution estimates of demographic and socioeconomic attributes are crucial for planning and policy development. While several efforts have been made to produce fine-scale gridded population estimates, socioeconomic features are…

Two-stage hierarchical models have been widely used in small area estimation to produce indirect estimates of areal means. When the areas are treated exchangeably and the model parameters are assumed to be the same over all areas, we might…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-10 Shonosuke Sugasawa , Yuki Kawakubo , Kota Ogasawara

Many people living in low- and middle-income countries are not covered by civil registration and vital statistics systems. Consequently, a wide variety of other types of data, including many household sample surveys, are used to estimate…

Bayesian hierarchical methods implemented for small area estimation focus on reducing the noise variation in published government official statistics by borrowing information among dependent response values. Even the most flexible models…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-08-05 Terrance D. Savitsky

Spatial misalignment arises when datasets are aggregated or collected at different spatial scales, leading to information loss. We develop a Bayesian disaggregation framework that links misaligned data to a continuous-domain model through…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-16 Man Ho Suen , Mark Naylor , Finn Lindgren

With the rise in popularity of digital Atlases to communicate spatial variation, there is an increasing need for robust small-area estimates. However, current small-area estimation methods suffer from various modeling problems when data are…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-06 James Hogg , Jessica Cameron , Susanna Cramb , Peter Baade , Kerrie Mengersen

Small area models are mixed effects regression models that link the small areas and borrow strength from similar domains. When the auxiliary variables used in the models are measured with error, small area estimators that ignore the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-23 Serena Arima , Silvia Polettini

This work develops a block aggregation approach to spatial estimation and prediction when the response is observed at a coarse spatial scale, for example as counts of events in administrative areas, or blocks, while covariates are available…

There has been recent growth in small area estimation due to the need for more precise estimation of small geographic areas, which has led to groups such as the U.S. Census Bureau, Google, and the RAND corporation utilizing small area…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-07-17 Malay Ghosh , Rebecca C. Steorts

Understanding the effects of social determinants of health on health outcomes requires data on characteristics of the neighborhoods in which subjects live. However, estimates of these characteristics are often aggregated over space and time…

Applications · Statistics 2021-12-15 Marco H. Benedetti , Veronica J. Berrocal , Roderick J. Little

Small area estimation (SAE) entails estimating characteristics of interest for domains, often geographical areas, in which there may be few or no samples available. SAE has a long history and a wide variety of methods have been suggested,…

Applications · Statistics 2020-06-19 Jon Wakefield , Taylor Okonek , Jon Pedersen
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