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We propose an asymptotic theory for distribution forecasting from the log normal chain-ladder model. The theory overcomes the difficulty of convoluting log normal variables and takes estimation error into account. The results differ from…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-18 D. Kuang , B. Nielsen

We discuss optimal prediction for families of probability distributions with a locally compact topological group structure. Right-invariant priors were previously shown to yield a posterior predictive distribution minimizing the worst-case…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-26 Jannis Bolik , Thomas Hofmann

We discuss a natural extension of Gilles Pisier's approach to the study of measure concentration, isoperimetry and Poincar\'e-type inequalities. This approach allows one to explore counterparts of various results about Gaussian measure in…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-11-08 Sergey G. Bobkov , Bruno Volzone

Empirical likelihood is a popular nonparametric statistical tool that does not require any distributional assumptions. In this paper, we explore the possibility of conducting variable selection via Bayesian empirical likelihood. We show…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-13 Yichen Cheng , Yichuan Zhao

Unfolding problems often arise in the context of statistical data analysis. Such problematics occur when the probability distribution of a physical quantity is to be measured, but it is randomized (smeared) by some well understood process,…

Applications · Statistics 2016-12-09 Andras Laszlo

Consider a uniform variate on the unit upper-half sphere of dimension $d$. It is known that the straight-line projection through the center of the unit sphere onto the plane above it distributes this variate according to a $d$-dimensional…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-09-18 Jonathan Dupuy , Laurent Belcour , Eric Heitz

Strongly log-concave (SLC) distributions are a rich class of discrete probability distributions over subsets of some ground set. They are strictly more general than strongly Rayleigh (SR) distributions such as the well-known determinantal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-14 Joshua Robinson , Suvrit Sra , Stefanie Jegelka

We study chordal Loewner families in the upper half-plane and show that they have a parametric representation. We show one, that to every chordal Loewner family there corresponds a unique measurable family of probability measures on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Robert O. Bauer

In this paper we consider a variety of procedures for numerical statistical inference in the family of univariate and multivariate stable distributions. In connection with univariate distributions (i) we provide approximations by finite…

Computation · Statistics 2012-09-04 Efthymios G. Tsionas

Overdispersed count data are modelled with likelihood and non-likelihood approaches. Likelihood approaches include the Poisson mixtures with three distributions, the gamma, the lognormal, and the inverse Gaussian distributions.…

Methodology · Statistics 2008-09-08 Stanley Xu , Gary Grunwald , Richard Jones

A random flight on a plane with non-isotropic displacements at the moments of direction changes is considered. In the case of exponentially distributed flight lengths a Gaussian limit theorem is proved for the position of a particle in the…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-04-10 Mark Kelbert , Enzo Orsingher

The central limit theorem ensures that a sum of random variables tends to a Gaussian distribution as their total number tends to infinity. However, for a class of positive random variables, we find that the sum tends faster to a log-normal…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2013-10-16 H. Mouri

We study the problem of robustly estimating the mean or location parameter without moment assumptions. We show that for a large class of symmetric distributions, the same error as in the Gaussian setting can be achieved efficiently. The…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2023-11-09 Gleb Novikov , David Steurer , Stefan Tiegel

We propose elliptical graphical models based on conditional uncorrelatedness as a general- ization of Gaussian graphical models by letting the population distribution be elliptical instead of normal, allowing the fitting of data with…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-06-16 Daniel Vogel , Roland Fried

We formulate necessary and sufficient conditions for an arbitrary discrete probability distribution to factor according to an undirected graphical model, or a log-linear model, or other more general exponential models. This result…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-07 Dan Geiger , Christopher Meek , Bernd Sturmfels

We present theoretical properties of the log-concave maximum likelihood estimator of a density based on an independent and identically distributed sample in $\mathbb{R}^d$. Our study covers both the case where the true underlying density is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-01 Madeleine Cule , Richard Samworth

The classical likelihood ratio test (LRT) based on the asymptotic chi-squared distribution of the log likelihood is one of the fundamental tools of statistical inference. A recent universal LRT approach based on sample splitting provides…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-22 Robin Dunn , Aaditya Ramdas , Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Larry Wasserman

The statistical inverse problem of estimating the probability distribution of an infinite-dimensional unknown given its noisy indirect observation is studied in the Bayesian framework. In practice, one often considers only…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-11-21 Sari Lasanen

Consider $k$ independent random samples from $p$-dimensional multivariate normal distributions. We are interested in the limiting distribution of the log-likelihood ratio test statistics for testing for the equality of $k$ covariance…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-05-23 Wenchuan Guo , Yongcheng Qi

In this paper, we propose a new flexible distribution for data on the three-dimensional torus which we call a trivariate wrapped Cauchy copula. Our trivariate copula has several attractive properties. It has a simple form of density and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-04 Shogo Kato , Christophe Ley , Sophia Loizidou , Kanti V. Mardia
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