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Probabilistic time series forecasting involves estimating the distribution of future based on its history, which is essential for risk management in downstream decision-making. We propose a deep state space model for probabilistic time…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-02 Longyuan Li , Junchi Yan , Xiaokang Yang , Yaohui Jin

We propose an efficient design of Transformer-based models for multivariate time series forecasting and self-supervised representation learning. It is based on two key components: (i) segmentation of time series into subseries-level patches…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-07 Yuqi Nie , Nam H. Nguyen , Phanwadee Sinthong , Jayant Kalagnanam

We introduce a novel modeling approach for time series imputation and forecasting, tailored to address the challenges often encountered in real-world data, such as irregular samples, missing data, or unaligned measurements from multiple…

Tree-based models have been successfully applied to a wide variety of tasks, including time series forecasting. They are increasingly in demand and widely accepted because of their comparatively high level of interpretability. However, many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-03 Matthias Jakobs , Amal Saadallah

Explainability is essential for neural networks that model long time series, yet most existing explainable AI methods only produce point-wise importance scores and fail to capture temporal structures such as trends, cycles, and regime…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-02 Ziqian Wang , Yuxiao Cheng , Jinli Suo

In the context of increasing demands for long-term multi-energy load forecasting in real-world applications, this paper introduces Patchformer, a novel model that integrates patch embedding with encoder-decoder Transformer-based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-17 Qiuyi Hong , Fanlin Meng , Felipe Maldonado

Recent studies have attempted to refine the Transformer architecture to demonstrate its effectiveness in Long-Term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF) tasks. Despite surpassing many linear forecasting models with ever-improving performance, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-30 Peiwang Tang , Weitai Zhang

Time Series Forecasting has made significant progress with the help of Patching technique, which partitions time series into multiple patches to effectively retain contextual semantic information into a representation space beneficial for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Xingjian Wu , Xiangfei Qiu , Hanyin Cheng , Zhengyu Li , Jilin Hu , Chenjuan Guo , Bin Yang

Masked time series modeling has recently gained much attention as a self-supervised representation learning strategy for time series. Inspired by masked image modeling in computer vision, recent works first patchify and partially mask out…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-03 Seunghan Lee , Taeyoung Park , Kibok Lee

Real-world time series often exhibit complex interdependencies that cannot be captured in isolation. Global models that model past data from multiple related time series globally while producing series-specific forecasts locally are now…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-14 Abishek Sriramulu , Christoph Bergmeir , Slawek Smyl

Regression problems with time-series predictors are common in banking and many other areas of application. In this paper, we use multi-head attention networks to develop interpretable features and use them to achieve good predictive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-26 Tianjie Wang , Jie Chen , Joel Vaughan , Vijayan N. Nair

We consider the problem of uncertainty quantification for prediction in a time series: if we use past data to forecast the next time point, can we provide valid prediction intervals around our forecasts? To avoid placing distributional…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-13 Rina Foygel Barber , Ashwin Pananjady

The atmosphere is chaotic. This fundamental property of the climate system makes forecasting weather incredibly challenging: it's impossible to expect weather models to ever provide perfect predictions of the Earth system beyond timescales…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-12-15 Elizabeth A. Barnes , Kirsten Mayer , Benjamin Toms , Zane Martin , Emily Gordon

Transformer-based models have become state-of-the-art tools in various machine learning tasks, including time series classification, yet their complexity makes understanding their internal decision-making challenging. Existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-27 Matīss Kalnāre , Sofoklis Kitharidis , Thomas Bäck , Niki van Stein

Multivariate time series forecasting is extensively studied throughout the years with ubiquitous applications in areas such as finance, traffic, environment, etc. Still, concerns have been raised on traditional methods for incapable of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-09-10 Yen-Yu Chang , Fan-Yun Sun , Yueh-Hua Wu , Shou-De Lin

Generating forecasts for time series with multiple seasonal cycles is an important use-case for many industries nowadays. Accounting for the multi-seasonal patterns becomes necessary to generate more accurate and meaningful forecasts in…

Applications · Statistics 2020-04-28 Kasun Bandara , Christoph Bergmeir , Hansika Hewamalage

Time series forecasting is important in many fields that require accurate predictions for decision-making. Patching techniques, commonly used and effective in time series modeling, help capture temporal dependencies by dividing the data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Xiangfei Qiu , Xvyuan Liu , Tianen Shen , Xingjian Wu , Hanyin Cheng , Bin Yang , Jilin Hu

Numerous deep learning architectures have been developed to accommodate the diversity of time series datasets across different domains. In this article, we survey common encoder and decoder designs used in both one-step-ahead and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-04-28 Bryan Lim , Stefan Zohren

Accurate and reliable energy time series prediction is of great significance for power generation planning and allocation. At present, deep learning time series prediction has become the mainstream method. However, the multi-scale time…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-08 Wei Li , Zixin Wang , Qizheng Sun , Qixiang Gao , Fenglei Yang

Modeling dynamic temporal dependencies is a critical challenge in time series pre-training, which evolve due to distribution shifts and multi-scale patterns. This temporal variability severely impairs the generalization of pre-trained…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-19 Yuemin Wu , Zhongze Wu , Xiu Su , Feng Yang , Hongyan Xu , Xi Lin , Wenti Huang , Shan You , Chang Xu