English
Related papers

Related papers: Believe Your Model: Distribution-Guided Confidence…

200 papers

Simulation-based inference methods that feature correct conditional coverage of confidence sets based on observations that have been compressed to a scalar test statistic require accurate modeling of either the p-value function or the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-18 Ali Al Kadhim , Harrison B. Prosper

Test-time guidance is a widely used mechanism for steering pretrained diffusion models toward outcomes specified by a reward function. Existing approaches, however, focus on maximizing reward rather than sampling from the true Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-27 Daniel Geyfman , Felix Draxler , Jan Groeneveld , Hyunsoo Lee , Theofanis Karaletsos , Stephan Mandt

Recently, diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have achieved promising results in diverse generative tasks. A typical DPM framework includes a forward process that gradually diffuses the data distribution and a reverse process that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-31 Tianyu Pang , Cheng Lu , Chao Du , Min Lin , Shuicheng Yan , Zhijie Deng

We study how the training data distribution affects confidence and performance in image classification models. We introduce Embedding Density, a model-agnostic framework that estimates prediction confidence by measuring the distance of test…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-28 Maksim Kazanskii , Artem Kasianov

Recommender systems utilize users' historical data to learn and predict their future interests, providing them with suggestions tailored to their tastes. Calibration ensures that the distribution of recommended item categories is consistent…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2022-08-23 Mohammadmehdi Naghiaei , Hossein A. Rahmani , Mohammad Aliannejadi , Nasim Sonboli

For users to trust model predictions, they need to understand model outputs, particularly their confidence - calibration aims to adjust (calibrate) models' confidence to match expected accuracy. We argue that the traditional calibration…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-10-25 Chenglei Si , Chen Zhao , Sewon Min , Jordan Boyd-Graber

Reliable confidence estimation for the predictions is important in many safety-critical applications. However, modern deep neural networks are often overconfident for their incorrect predictions. Recently, many calibration methods have been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-07 Fei Zhu , Zhen Cheng , Xu-Yao Zhang , Cheng-Lin Liu

In a regression model, prediction is typically performed after model selection. The large variability in the model selection makes the prediction unstable. Thus, it is essential to reduce the variability in model selection and improve…

Computation · Statistics 2024-04-11 Wataru Yoshida , Kei Hirose

This paper proposes the use of "multicalibration" to yield interpretable and reliable confidence scores for outputs generated by large language models (LLMs). Multicalibration asks for calibration not just marginally, but simultaneously…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-09 Gianluca Detommaso , Martin Bertran , Riccardo Fogliato , Aaron Roth

Distributed algorithms for solving additive or consensus optimization problems commonly rely on first-order or proximal splitting methods. These algorithms generally come with restrictive assumptions and at best enjoy a linear convergence…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-05-11 Sina Khoshfetrat Pakazad , Christian A. Naesseth , Fredrik Lindsten , Anders Hansson

Diffusion models accomplish remarkable success in data generation tasks across various domains. However, the iterative sampling process is computationally expensive. Consistency models are proposed to learn consistency functions to map from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-07 Yiding Chen , Yiyi Zhang , Owen Oertell , Wen Sun

Self-Consistency, a widely-used decoding strategy, significantly boosts the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, it depends on the plurality voting rule, which focuses on the most frequent answer while…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-18 Siyuan Huang , Zhiyuan Ma , Jintao Du , Changhua Meng , Weiqiang Wang , Zhouhan Lin

We propose a generic framework to calibrate accuracy and confidence of a prediction in deep neural networks through stochastic inferences. We interpret stochastic regularization using a Bayesian model, and analyze the relation between…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-25 Seonguk Seo , Paul Hongsuck Seo , Bohyung Han

As a highly expressive generative model, diffusion models have demonstrated exceptional success across various domains, including image generation, natural language processing, and combinatorial optimization. However, as data distributions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-27 Myunsoo Kim , Donghyeon Ki , Seong-Woong Shim , Byung-Jun Lee

Recent advances in Multi-modal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have predominantly focused on enhancing visual perception to improve accuracy. However, a critical question remains unexplored: Do models know when they do not know? Through a…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-03-13 Yuetian Du , Yucheng Wang , Rongyu Zhang , Zhijie Xu , Boyu Yang , Ming Kong , Jie Liu , Qiang Zhu

Large Language Models (LLMs) show promise for automated grading, but their outputs can be unreliable. Rather than improving grading accuracy directly, we address a complementary problem: \textit{predicting when an LLM grader is likely to be…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-01 Robinson Ferrer , Damla Turgut , Zhongzhou Chen , Shashank Sonkar

Collaborative Filtering (CF) models, despite their great success, suffer from severe performance drops due to popularity distribution shifts, where these changes are ubiquitous and inevitable in real-world scenarios. Unfortunately, most…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2023-05-19 An Zhang , Jingnan Zheng , Xiang Wang , Yancheng Yuan , Tat-Seng Chua

We study calibration in question answering, estimating whether model correctly predicts answer for each question. Unlike prior work which mainly rely on the model's confidence score, our calibrator incorporates information about the input…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-06-04 Shujian Zhang , Chengyue Gong , Eunsol Choi

We present an novel framework for efficiently and effectively extending the powerful continuous diffusion processes to discrete modeling. Previous approaches have suffered from the discrepancy between discrete data and continuous modeling.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-31 Yuxuan Gu , Xiaocheng Feng , Lei Huang , Yingsheng Wu , Zekun Zhou , Weihong Zhong , Kun Zhu , Bing Qin

This paper provides an elementary, self-contained analysis of diffusion-based sampling methods for generative modeling. In contrast to existing approaches that rely on continuous-time processes and then discretize, our treatment works…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-25 Galen Reeves , Henry D. Pfister