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Accurate medium-range precipitation forecasting is crucial for hydrometeorological risk management and disaster mitigation, yet remains challenging for current numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. Traditional ensemble systems such as…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-10-24 Tianyi Xiong , Haonan Chen

Seasonal climate forecasts are commonly based on model runs from fully coupled forecasting systems that use Earth system models to represent interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, land and other Earth-system components. Recently,…

In recent years, Deep-Learning Earth System Models (DL-ESMs) have emerged as promising, computationally efficient complements to traditional Earth system models. Here, we present an evaluation framework for testing DL-ESMs from a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-05-20 Giuliana Pallotta , Shiheng Duan , Céline Bonfils , Jiwoo Lee , Seth Goodnight , Paul Ullrich

In this paper an approach based on expectation maximization (EM) clustering to find the climate regions and a support vector machine to build a predictive model for each of these regions is proposed. To minimize the biases in the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-09-24 Naresh Kumar Mallenahalli

Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are an essential tool for analysing regional climate change impacts as they provide simulations with more small-scale details and expected smaller errors than global climate models. There has been much effort…

Applications · Statistics 2020-02-24 Ernesto Pasten-Zapata , Julie Jones , Helen Moggridge , Martin Widmann

Kilometer-scale weather data is crucial for real-world applications but remains computationally intensive to produce using traditional weather simulations. An emerging solution is to use deep learning models, which offer a faster…

Global climate models represent small-scale processes such as clouds and convection using quasi-empirical models known as parameterizations, and these parameterizations are a leading cause of uncertainty in climate projections. A promising…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-08-31 Janni Yuval , Paul A. O'Gorman

Stochastic schemes, designed to represent unresolved sub-grid scale variability, are frequently used in short and medium-range weather forecasts, where they are found to improve several aspects of the model. In recent years, the impact of…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-02-19 K. Strommen , P. A. G. Watson , T. N. Palmer

An AI-based Limited-Area Model (LAM) is developed for dynamical downscaling over the Southern Great Plains and the southeastern United States, with strong generalization abilities under diverse boundary conditions. The model is trained…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-02-25 Yingkai Sha , Tracy Hertneky , Ethan Gutmann , Seth McGinnis , Rachel McCrary , Lulin Xue , David John Gagne , Kathryn Newman , Andrew Newman

Recent years have seen a huge development in spatial modelling and prediction methodology, driven by the increased availability of remote-sensing data and the reduced cost of distributed-processing technology. It is well known that…

Computation · Statistics 2020-02-18 Andrew Zammit-Mangion , Jonathan Rougier

Predicting future climatic conditions at high spatial resolution is essential for many applications and impact studies in science. Here, we present monthly time series data on precipitation, minimum- and maximum temperature for four…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-07-27 Dirk Nikolaus Karger , Dirk R. Schmatz , Gabriel Dettling , Niklaus E. Zimmermann

Remote sensing observations of the Earth's surface are frequently stymied by clouds, water vapour, and aerosols in our atmosphere. These degrade or preclude the measurementof quantities critical to scientific and, hence, societal…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-07-19 Angelina Agabin , J. Xavier Prochaska , Peter C. Cornillon , Christian E. Buckingham

The integration of RGB and thermal data can significantly improve semantic segmentation performance in wild environments for field robots. Nevertheless, multi-source data processing (e.g. Transformer-based approaches) imposes significant…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-06-24 Xiaodong Guo , Zi'ang Lin , Luwen Hu , Zhihong Deng , Tong Liu , Wujie Zhou

Accurate acquisition of high-resolution surface meteorological conditions is critical for forecasting and simulating meteorological variables. Directly applying spatial interpolation methods to derive meteorological values at specific…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-06-19 Siwei Tu , Jingyi Xu , Weidong Yang , Lei Bai , Ben Fei

Recent advances in deep learning have significantly elevated weather prediction models. However, these models often falter in real-world scenarios due to their sensitivity to spatial-temporal shifts. This issue is particularly acute in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-04 Lu Han , Xu-Yang Chen , Han-Jia Ye , De-Chuan Zhan

Uncertainty quantification is crucial to decision-making. A prominent example is probabilistic forecasting in numerical weather prediction. The dominant approach to representing uncertainty in weather forecasting is to generate an ensemble…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-10 Lizao Li , Rob Carver , Ignacio Lopez-Gomez , Fei Sha , John Anderson

A fundamental challenge in numerical weather prediction is to efficiently produce high-resolution forecasts. A common solution is applying downscaling methods, which include dynamical downscaling and statistical downscaling, to the outputs…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-10 Honglu Sun , Hao Jing , Zhixiang Dai , Sa Xiao , Wei Xue , Jian Sun , Qifeng Lu

Persistent systematic errors in Earth system models (ESMs) arise from difficulties in representing the full diversity of subgrid, multiscale atmospheric convection and turbulence. Machine learning (ML) parameterizations trained on short…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-05-18 Helge Heuer , Tom Beucler , Mierk Schwabe , Julien Savre , Manuel Schlund , Veronika Eyring

Machine learning (ML) can represent processes unresolved in coarse-resolution Earth system models (ESMs) by learning from high-resolution climate data. Such ML parameterization approaches have been primarily tested in idealized setups where…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-14 Erisa Ismaili , Robert C. Jnglin Wills , Tom Beucler

Climate change affects ocean temperature, salinity and sea level, impacting monsoons and ocean productivity. Future projections by Global Climate Models based on shared socioeconomic pathways from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-01-09 Abhishek Pasula , Deepak N. Subramani