Related papers: LOO-PIT predictive model checking
With the advent of the next generation of astrophysics experiments, the volume of data available to researchers will be greater than ever. As these projects will significantly drive down statistical uncertainties in measurements, it is…
Model inference, such as model comparison, model checking, and model selection, is an important part of model development. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO) is a general approach for assessing the generalizability of a model, but…
Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) is a popular method for estimating out-of-sample predictive accuracy. However, computing LOO-CV criteria can be computationally expensive due to the need to fit the model multiple times. In the…
It is useful to estimate the expected predictive performance of models planned to be used for prediction. We focus on leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV), which has become a popular method for estimating predictive performance of…
Probability integral transforms (PITs) and empirical $p$-values are widely used to assess the calibration of predictive distributions. While exact PIT values are uniformly distributed under correct model specification, practical…
Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO) and the widely applicable information criterion (WAIC) are methods for estimating pointwise out-of-sample prediction accuracy from a fitted Bayesian model using the log-likelihood evaluated at the…
Recently, new methods for model assessment, based on subsampling and posterior approximations, have been proposed for scaling leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO) to large datasets. Although these methods work well for estimating predictive…
Comparison of competing statistical models is an essential part of psychological research. From a Bayesian perspective, various approaches to model comparison and selection have been proposed in the literature. However, the applicability of…
The future predictive performance of a Bayesian model can be estimated using Bayesian cross-validation. In this article, we consider Gaussian latent variable models where the integration over the latent values is approximated using the…
Conditional independence testing is an important problem, yet provably hard without assumptions. One of the assumptions that has become popular of late is called "model-X", where we assume we know the joint distribution of the covariates,…
Detecting conditional independencies plays a key role in several statistical and machine learning tasks, especially in causal discovery algorithms. In this study, we introduce LCIT (Latent representation based Conditional Independence…
We consider a linear regression model and propose an omnibus test to simultaneously check the assumption of independence between the error and the predictor variables, and the goodness-of-fit of the parametric model. Our approach is based…
Cross-validation can be used to measure a model's predictive accuracy for the purpose of model comparison, averaging, or selection. Standard leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) requires that the observation model can be factorized into…
Leave-one-out (LOO) prediction provides a principled, data-dependent measure of generalization, yet guarantees in fully transductive settings remain poorly understood beyond specialized models. We introduce Median of Level-Set Aggregation…
We study prediction intervals based on leave-one-out residuals in a linear regression model where the number of explanatory variables can be large compared to sample size. We establish uniform asymptotic validity (conditional on the…
When evaluating and comparing models using leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV), the uncertainty of the estimate is typically assessed using the variance of the sampling distribution. Considering the uncertainty is important, as the…
We propose a new approach to falsify causal discovery algorithms without ground truth, which is based on testing the causal model on a pair of variables that has been dropped when learning the causal model. To this end, we use the…
One of the common goals of time series analysis is to use the observed series to inform predictions for future observations. In the absence of any actual new data to predict, cross-validation can be used to estimate a model's future…
In recent decades, multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) has surged in popularity for population inference. However, the validity of the estimates can depend on details of the model, and there is currently little research on…
The masking-one-out (MOO) procedure, masking an observed entry and comparing it versus its imputed values, is a very common procedure for comparing imputation models. We study the optimum of this procedure and generalize it to a missing…