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Modern time series forecasting increasingly relies on complex ensemble models generated by AutoML systems like AutoGluon, delivering superior accuracy but with significant costs to transparency and interpretability. This paper introduces a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-13 Yikai Zhao , Jiekai Ma

With the increasing application of deep learning algorithms to time series classification, especially in high-stake scenarios, the relevance of interpreting those algorithms becomes key. Although research in time series interpretability has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-16 Jacqueline Höllig , Cedric Kulbach , Steffen Thoma

Interpretability analysis methods for artificial intelligence models, such as LIME and SHAP, are widely used, though they primarily serve as post-model for analyzing model outputs. While it is commonly believed that the transparency and…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-02-28 Yan Zhang , Lin Chen , Yixiang Tian

Conventional Time Series Classification (TSC) methods are often black boxes that obscure inherent interpretation of their decision-making processes. In this work, we leverage Multiple Instance Learning (MIL) to overcome this issue, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Joseph Early , Gavin KC Cheung , Kurt Cutajar , Hanting Xie , Jas Kandola , Niall Twomey

We present an interpretable companion model for any pre-trained black-box classifiers. The idea is that for any input, a user can decide to either receive a prediction from the black-box model, with high accuracy but no explanations, or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-12 Danqing Pan , Tong Wang , Satoshi Hara

Information Pursuit (IP) is an explainable prediction algorithm that greedily selects a sequence of interpretable queries about the data in order of information gain, updating its posterior at each step based on observed query-answer pairs.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-08-06 Stefan Kolek , Aditya Chattopadhyay , Kwan Ho Ryan Chan , Hector Andrade-Loarca , Gitta Kutyniok , Réne Vidal

Most existing interpretable methods explain a black-box model in a post-hoc manner, which uses simpler models or data analysis techniques to interpret the predictions after the model is learned. However, they (a) may derive contradictory…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-22 Mengzhuo Guo , Qingpeng Zhang , Xiuwu Liao , Daniel Dajun Zeng

Time series forecasting in real-world applications requires both high predictive accuracy and interpretable uncertainty quantification. Traditional point prediction methods often fail to capture the inherent uncertainty in time series data,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-05 Zhen Zhou , Zhirui Wang , Qi Hong , Yunyang Shi , Ziyuan Gu , Zhiyuan Liu

Machine learning has shown much promise in helping improve the quality of medical, legal, and financial decision-making. In these applications, machine learning models must satisfy two important criteria: (i) they must be causal, since the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-12 Carolyn Kim , Osbert Bastani

Regression problems with time-series predictors are common in banking and many other areas of application. In this paper, we use multi-head attention networks to develop interpretable features and use them to achieve good predictive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-26 Tianjie Wang , Jie Chen , Joel Vaughan , Vijayan N. Nair

In real data, missing values occur frequently, which affects the interpretation with interpretable machine learning (IML) methods. Recent work considers bias and shows that model explanations may differ between imputation methods, while…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-22 Pegah Golchian , Marvin N. Wright

Clinical decisions are high-stakes and require explicit justification, making model interpretability essential for auditing deep clinical models prior to deployment. As the ecosystem of model architectures and explainability methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-27 Yongda Fan , John Wu , Andrea Fitzpatrick , Naveen Baskaran , Jimeng Sun , Adam Cross

Prototype-based methods are of the particular interest for domain specialists and practitioners as they summarize a dataset by a small set of representatives. Therefore, in a classification setting, interpretability of the prototypes is as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-12 Babak Hosseini , Barbara Hammer

The adaptation of large language models (LLMs) to time series forecasting poses unique challenges, as time series data is continuous in nature, while LLMs operate on discrete tokens. Despite the success of LLMs in natural language…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-08-05 Taibiao Zhao , Xiaobing Chen , Mingxuan Sun

Recent efforts in Machine Learning (ML) interpretability have focused on creating methods for explaining black-box ML models. However, these methods rely on the assumption that simple approximations, such as linear models or decision-trees,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-13 Owen Lahav , Nicholas Mastronarde , Mihaela van der Schaar

The rapid evolution of machine learning (ML) has led to the widespread adoption of complex "black box" models, such as deep neural networks and ensemble methods. These models exhibit exceptional predictive performance, making them…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-28 Moncef Garouani , Josiane Mothe , Ayah Barhrhouj , Julien Aligon

Transformers have become a standard architecture in machine learning, demonstrating strong in-context learning (ICL) abilities that allow them to learn from the prompt at inference time. However, uncertainty quantification for ICL remains…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-23 Zhe Huang , Simone Rossi , Rui Yuan , Thomas Hannagan

We propose Partially Interpretable Estimators (PIE) which attribute a prediction to individual features via an interpretable model, while a (possibly) small part of the PIE prediction is attributed to the interaction of features via a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-07 Tong Wang , Jingyi Yang , Yunyi Li , Boxiang Wang

In the field of high-performance computing (HPC), there has been recent exploration into the use of deep reinforcement learning for cluster scheduling (DRL scheduling), which has demonstrated promising outcomes. However, a significant…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-26 Boyang Li , Zhiling Lan , Michael E. Papka

This paper proposes a new framework for learning a rule ensemble model that is both accurate and interpretable. A rule ensemble is an interpretable model based on the linear combination of weighted rules. In practice, we often face the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-21 Kentaro Kanamori