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ML models have errors when used for predictions. The errors are unknown but can be quantified by model uncertainty. When multiple ML models are trained using the same training points, their model uncertainties may be statistically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-23 Xiaoping Du

Modelling uncertainty in Machine Learning models is essential for achieving safe and reliable predictions. Most research on uncertainty focuses on output uncertainty (predictions), but minimal attention is paid to uncertainty at inputs. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-28 Matias Valdenegro-Toro , Ivo Pascal de Jong , Marco Zullich

To unravel the driving patterns of networks, the most popular models rely on community detection algorithms. However, these approaches are generally unable to reproduce the structural features of the network. Therefore, attempts are always…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2022-09-07 Martina Contisciani , Hadiseh Safdari , Caterina De Bacco

It has been proposed that, when processing a stream of events, humans divide their experiences in terms of inferred latent causes (LCs) to support context-dependent learning. However, when shared structure is present across contexts, it is…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2024-06-10 Qihong Lu , Tan T. Nguyen , Qiong Zhang , Uri Hasson , Thomas L. Griffiths , Jeffrey M. Zacks , Samuel J. Gershman , Kenneth A. Norman

Represented as graphs, real networks are intricate combinations of order and disorder. Fixing some of the structural properties of network models to their values observed in real networks, many other properties appear as statistical…

In order to represent the preferences of a group of individuals, we introduce Probabilistic CP-nets (PCP-nets). PCP-nets provide a compact language for representing probability distributions over preference orderings. We argue that they are…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-09-27 Damien Bigot , Bruno Zanuttini , Helene Fargier , Jerome Mengin

Traditional machine learning approaches may fail to perform satisfactorily when dealing with complex data. In this context, the importance of data mining evolves w.r.t. building an efficient knowledge discovery and mining framework.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-08-04 Abdul Mueed Hafiz , Ghulam Mohiuddin Bhat

In online advertising, uncertainty calibration aims to adjust a ranking model's probability predictions to better approximate the true likelihood of an event, e.g., a click or a conversion. However, existing calibration approaches may lack…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Quanyu Dai , Jiaren Xiao , Zhaocheng Du , Jieming Zhu , Chengxiao Luo , Xiao-Ming Wu , Zhenhua Dong

Understanding and quantifying uncertainty in black box Neural Networks (NNs) is critical when deployed in real-world settings such as healthcare. Recent works using Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods have shown how a unified predictive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-29 Utkarsh Sarawgi , Wazeer Zulfikar , Rishab Khincha , Pattie Maes

Exponential random graph models (ERGMs) are very flexible for modeling network formation but pose difficult estimation challenges due to their intractable normalizing constant. Existing methods, such as MCMC-MLE, rely on sequential…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2025-02-05 Angelo Mele

Ensembles of networks arise in various fields where multiple independent networks are observed on the same set of nodes, for example, a collection of brain networks constructed on the same brain regions for different individuals. However,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-21 Sa Ren , Xue Wang , Peng Liu , Jian Zhang

In contrast to the abundant research focusing on large-scale models, the progress in lightweight semantic segmentation appears to be advancing at a comparatively slower pace. However, existing compact methods often suffer from limited…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-09-13 Guoan Xu , Wenjing Jia , Tao Wu , Ligeng Chen

Rigorous statistical methods, including parameter estimation with accompanying uncertainties, underpin the validity of scientific discovery, especially in the natural sciences. With increasingly complex data models such as deep learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-18 Aurora Grefsrud , Nello Blaser , Trygve Buanes

This paper presents an R package EMMIXcskew for the fitting of the canonical fundamental skew t-distribution (CFUST) and finite mixtures of this distribution (FM-CFUST) via maximum likelihood (ML). The CFUST distribution provides a flexible…

Computation · Statistics 2017-02-10 Sharon X. Lee , Geoffrey J. McLachlan

Recent advances in machine learning for molecules exhibit great potential for facilitating drug discovery from in silico predictions. Most models for molecule generation rely on the decomposition of molecules into frequently occurring…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2023-11-08 Leon Hetzel , Johanna Sommer , Bastian Rieck , Fabian Theis , Stephan Günnemann

With many frameworks based on message passing neural networks proposed to predict molecular and bulk properties, machine learning methods have tremendously shifted the paradigms of computational sciences underpinning physics, material…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-03 Zun Wang , Chong Wang , Sibo Zhao , Yong Xu , Shaogang Hao , Chang Yu Hsieh , Bing-Lin Gu , Wenhui Duan

Maximum entropy principle (MEP) offers an effective and unbiased approach to inferring unknown probability distributions when faced with incomplete information, while neural networks provide the flexibility to learn complex distributions…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-04 Wuyue Yang , Liangrong Peng , Guojie Li , Liu Hong

Free and open source software package ecosystems have existed for a long time and are among the most sophisticated human-made systems. One of the oldest and most popular software package ecosystems is CRAN, the repository of packages of the…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2020-07-16 Marçal Mora-Cantallops , Salvador Sánchez-Alonso , Elena García-Barriocanal

We propose a novel, succinct, and effective approach for distribution prediction to quantify uncertainty in machine learning. It incorporates adaptively flexible distribution prediction of $\mathbb{P}(\mathbf{y}|\mathbf{X}=x)$ in regression…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-21 Xing Yan , Yonghua Su , Wenxuan Ma

Most current computer vision datasets are composed of disconnected sets, such as images from different classes. We prove that distributions of this type of data cannot be represented with a continuous generative network without error. They…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-26 Lorenzo Luzi , Randall Balestriero , Richard G. Baraniuk