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Although there is much recent work developing flexible variational methods for Bayesian computation, Gaussian approximations with structured covariance matrices are often preferred computationally in high-dimensional settings. This paper…

Computation · Statistics 2023-02-08 Robert Salomone , Xuejun Yu , David J. Nott , Robert Kohn

We consider the problem of learning Stochastic Differential Equations of the form $dX_t = f(X_t)dt+\sigma(X_t)dW_t $ from one sample trajectory. This problem is more challenging than learning deterministic dynamical systems because one…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-28 Matthieu Darcy , Boumediene Hamzi , Giulia Livieri , Houman Owhadi , Peyman Tavallali

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have become the de facto standard for analyzing graph-structured data, leveraging message-passing techniques to capture both structural and node feature information. However, recent studies have raised concerns…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Yujia Wu , Bo Yang , Yang Zhao , Elynn Chen , Yuzhou Chen , Zheshi Zheng

Predictive models make mistakes. Hence, there is a need to quantify the uncertainty associated with their predictions. Conformal inference has emerged as a powerful tool to create statistically valid prediction regions around point…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-14 Luben M. C. Cabezas , Mateus P. Otto , Rafael Izbicki , Rafael B. Stern

We introduce a general framework for analyzing data modeled as parameterized families of networks. Building on a Gromov-Wasserstein variant of optimal transport, we define a family of parameterized Gromov-Wasserstein distances for comparing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-29 Mario Gómez , Guanqun Ma , Tom Needham , Bei Wang

Conformal prediction (CP) provides a distribution-free approach to uncertainty quantification with finite-sample guarantees. However, applying CP to graph neural networks (GNNs) remains challenging as the combinatorial nature of graphs…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Peyman Baghershahi , Fangxin Wang , Debmalya Mandal , Sourav Medya

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-06 Margaux Zaffran , Aymeric Dieuleveut , Julie Josse , Yaniv Romano

We address the problem of uncertainty quantification in time series forecasting by exploiting observations at correlated sequences. Relational deep learning methods leveraging graph representations are among the most effective tools for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-09 Andrea Cini , Alexander Jenkins , Danilo Mandic , Cesare Alippi , Filippo Maria Bianchi

Conformal prediction is a simple and powerful tool that can quantify uncertainty without any distributional assumptions. Many existing methods only address the average coverage guarantee, which is not ideal compared to the stronger…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-21 Xing Han , Ziyang Tang , Joydeep Ghosh , Qiang Liu

Entity alignment is the task of identifying corresponding entities across different knowledge graphs (KGs). Although recent embedding-based entity alignment methods have shown significant advancements, they still struggle to fully utilize…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-05-12 Jianheng Tang , Kangfei Zhao , Jia Li

As a valid metric of metric-measure spaces, Gromov-Wasserstein (GW) distance has shown the potential for matching problems of structured data like point clouds and graphs. However, its application in practice is limited due to the high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-10 Mengyu Li , Jun Yu , Hongteng Xu , Cheng Meng

Although graph neural networks (GNNs) have achieved impressive achievements in graph classification, they often need abundant task-specific labels, which could be extensively costly to acquire. A credible solution is to explore additional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-15 Nan Yin , Li Shen , Mengzhu Wang , Long Lan , Zeyu Ma , Chong Chen , Xian-Sheng Hua , Xiao Luo

Trustworthy decision making in networked, dynamic environments calls for innovative uncertainty quantification substrates in predictive models for graph time series. Existing conformal prediction (CP) methods have been applied separately to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Sonakshi Dua , Gonzalo Mateos , Sundeep Prabhakar Chepuri

We develop a skew-adaptive extension of split conformal prediction for regression. The method starts from an asymmetric interval family centered at a point prediction and uses the gauge approach to deduce the conformity score induced by…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-18 Paulo C. Marques F. , Helton Graziadei

Graph self-supervised learning can reduce the need for labeled graph data and has been widely used in recommendation, social networks, and other web applications. However, existing methods often underuse high-frequency signals and may…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-20 Haojie Li , Mengjiao Zhang , Guanfeng Liu , Qiang Hu , Yan Wang , Junwei Du

We develop a fast variational approximation scheme for Gaussian process (GP) regression, where the spectrum of the covariance function is subjected to a sparse approximation. Our approach enables uncertainty in covariance function…

Computation · Statistics 2019-04-24 Linda S. L. Tan , Victor M. H. Ong , David J. Nott , Ajay Jasra

Spatial prediction refers to the estimation of unobserved values from spatially distributed observations. Although recent advances have improved the capacity to model diverse observation types, adoption in practice remains limited in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-10 Yuta Shikuri , Hironori Fujisawa

Conformal prediction has recently emerged as a promising strategy for quantifying the uncertainty of a predictive model; these algorithms modify the model to output sets of labels that are guaranteed to contain the true label with high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-11 Botong Zhang , Shuo Li , Osbert Bastani

Standard conformal prediction methods guarantee marginal coverage but often produce inefficient intervals that fail to adapt to local heteroscedasticity, while recent localized approaches often struggle to maintain validity across distinct…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-02 Yuan Lu

The Gromov-Wasserstein (GW) distance is an effective measure of alignment between distributions supported on distinct ambient spaces. Calculating essentially the mutual departure from isometry, it has found vast usage in domain translation…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-23 Anish Chakrabarty , Arkaprabha Basu , Swagatam Das