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The paper presents a Bayesian framework for the calibration of financial models using neural stochastic differential equations (neural SDEs), for which we also formulate a global universal approximation theorem based on Barron-type…

In this paper we study algorithms to find a Gaussian approximation to a target measure defined on a Hilbert space of functions; the target measure itself is defined via its density with respect to a reference Gaussian measure. We employ the…

In many applications in biology, engineering and economics, identifying similarities and differences between distributions of data from complex processes requires comparing finite categorical samples of discrete counts. Statistical…

Variational Inference (VI) is a popular alternative to asymptotically exact sampling in Bayesian inference. Its main workhorse is optimization over a reverse Kullback-Leibler divergence (RKL), which typically underestimates the tail of the…

In Bayesian statistics, the choice of the prior can have an important influence on the posterior and the parameter estimation, especially when few data samples are available. To limit the added subjectivity from a priori information, one…

We consider estimating the predictive density under Kullback-Leibler loss in a high-dimensional Gaussian model. Decision theoretic properties of the within-family prediction error -- the minimal risk among estimates in the class…

Loss-based priors assign probability mass to parameter values according to the inferential loss incurred when they are excluded from the parameter space, and provide a general solution for discrete parameters. Extending this idea to…

We introduce a symmetric random scan Gibbs sampler for scalable Bayesian variable selection that eliminates storage of the full cross-product matrix by computing required quantities on-the-fly. Data-informed proposal weights, constructed…

We consider the problem of predictive density estimation under Kullback-Leibler loss in a high-dimensional Gaussian model with exact sparsity constraints on the location parameters. We study the first order asymptotic minimax risk of Bayes…

Effective uncertainty quantification is important for training modern predictive models with limited data, enhancing both accuracy and robustness. While Bayesian methods are effective for this purpose, they can be challenging to scale. When…

In recent years, the shortcomings of Bayesian posteriors as inferential devices have received increased attention. A popular strategy for fixing them has been to instead target a Gibbs measure based on losses that connect a parameter of…

Popular deterministic approximations of posterior distributions from, e.g. the Laplace method, variational Bayes and expectation-propagation, generally rely on symmetric approximating families, often taken to be Gaussian. This choice…

In contingency table analysis, sparse data is frequently encountered for even modest numbers of variables, resulting in non-existence of maximum likelihood estimates. A common solution is to obtain regularized estimates of the parameters of…

Transfer learning has recently shown significant performance across various tasks involving deep neural networks. In these transfer learning scenarios, the prior distribution for downstream data becomes crucial in Bayesian model averaging…

In the Bayes paradigm and for a given loss function, we propose the construction of a new type of posterior distributions, that extends the classical Bayes one, for estimating the law of an $n$-sample. The loss functions we have in mind are…

Flexible Bayesian models are typically constructed using limits of large parametric models with a multitude of parameters that are often uninterpretable. In this article, we offer a novel alternative by constructing an exponentially tilted…

We proposed a learning algorithm for nonparametric estimation and on-line prediction for general stationary ergodic sources. We prepare histograms each of which estimates the probability as a finite distribution, and mixture them with…

We quantify model risk of a financial portfolio whereby a multi-period mean-standard-deviation criterion is used as a selection criterion. In this work, model risk is defined as the loss due to uncertainty of the underlying distribution of…

Optimal dimensionality reduction methods are proposed for the Bayesian inference of a Gaussian linear model with additive noise in presence of overabundant data. Three different optimal projections of the observations are proposed based on…

Many inverse problems arising in applications come from continuum models where the unknown parameter is a field. In practice the unknown field is discretized resulting in a problem in $\mathbb{R}^N$, with an understanding that refining the…